Apr 4, 26sim 97
1910
20(H)5
EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
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FINAL+2LAD
LAD
7-2
86
WSH
3-6
Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
24,899 attended
Line movement
4 snapshots
WSH spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
WSH no-vig %
38.4%
open 38.4%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.5%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
35.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.4%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.63 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 76 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Shohei OhtaniLAD6.8± 3.4low
- Emmet SheehanLAD5.9± 3.5low
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD5.9± 3.0low
Hits
- James WoodWSH1.3± 1.4high
- Keibert RuizWSH1.3± 0.8high
- Andy PagesLAD1.1± 1.3high
Total bases
- Keibert RuizWSH2.4± 2.0high
- Freddie FreemanLAD2.3± 2.6high
- James WoodWSH2.3± 2.8high
RBIs
- Keibert RuizWSH1.0± 1.6high
- Andy PagesLAD0.9± 1.0high
- CJ AbramsWSH0.8± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Eric LauerLAD3.1± 2.8low
- Roki SasakiLAD2.8± 2.1low
- Zack LittellWSH2.8± 3.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAD wins
LAD 8 · WSH 6 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked LAD +14pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
