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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5LAD
LAD

LAD

6-2

10
5
WSH

WSH

3-5

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
40,046 attended

Line movement

5 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

WSH no-vig %

27.5%

open 27.5%

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL31.5%23.5%WSH NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 10 · WSH 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD23103010010
WSH0011000215

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+248

Close price

+248

Open no-vig

27.5%

Close no-vig

27.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -314

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 10–5.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Andy Pages

Andy Pages

CF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD6-2
10
5
WSH3-5
LAD6-2·WSH3-5
LAD

LAD

6-2

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-66120002
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
2-33221020
SPRINT26.123
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-00100010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-55024001
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
3-55130000
SPRINT2744
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-55110002
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
3-55233101
SPRINT28.175
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-55110002
A. CallA. Call★LF
2-55121000
SPRINT27.765
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-33001000
Team16-4242101610138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
6.0422290
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0100010
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.0222011
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0111000
Team9.08552111
WSH

WSH

3-5

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-55000002
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
3-44131000
SPRINT26.735
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000003
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-44000000
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-22212121
SPRINT28.483
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT26.838
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-33110001
SPRINT26.838
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-44000002
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT29.496
J. TenaJ. TenaDH
1-11011000
Team8-34345851211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
4.0866240
B. LordB. LordRP
2.0533101
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
1.0211020
C. HenryC. HenryRP
2.0100020
Team9.0161010381

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    101 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      29%·95.9 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.4 mph·13% whiff
    • KC
      25%·80.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      12%·89.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      8%·83.8 mph·67% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      50%·100.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      41%·94.8 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      9%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Casparius
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      40%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Scott
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·90.2 mph·25% whiff

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    85 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.1 mph·26% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·77.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.2 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Lord
    49 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      33%·85.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Henry
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      65%·94.4 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      30%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • G. Varland
    19 pitches·53% CSW
    • SL
      63%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      37%·95.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

8

10

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Apr 3LADLAD13@WSHWSH6
Apr 4LADLAD10@WSHWSH5today
Apr 5LADLAD8@WSHWSH6

Season series

LAD lead series 2-0

Apr 3LADLAD13@WSHWSH6
Apr 4LADLAD10@WSHWSH5today
Apr 5LADLAD8@WSHWSH6
Sep 5WSHWSH@LADLADupcoming
Sep 6WSHWSH@LADLADupcoming
Sep 7WSHWSH@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-31476%
WSHWSH+24829%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 1st Inning

LADLAD
A. Pages

A. Pages

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat WSH 10-5.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 82% WP

Freeman · doubled to right, Betts scored and Tucker scored.

LADTop 2nd Inning · 5-0
+7pp→ 94% WP

Freeman · doubled to right, Ohtani scored and Tucker scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD23103010010
WSH0011000215

Period scoring

LAD won 4 · WSH won 3

2
0

Inn 1

Freeman 2

3
0

Inn 2

Freeman 2

1
1

Inn 3

Call 1

Garc 1

0
1

Inn 4

Mead 1

3
0

Inn 5

Pages 3

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Tucker 1

0
2

Inn 8

Abrams 2

0
1

Inn 9

Tena 1

LAD
WSH

Play-by-play · 633 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  3. B9

    Wood grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Tena out at second.

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

    −0.7pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  10. B9

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to James Wood

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  11. B9

    ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  12. B9

    Tena singled to right, Vivas scored.

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

    +0.5pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  20. B9

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to Jose Tena

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 5

  21. B9

    Tena hit for Young

    ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  22. B9

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  23. B9

    Millas grounded out to first, Vivas to second.

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

    −0.5pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  27. B9

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to Drew Millas

    · ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  28. B9

    ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

  29. B9

    Vivas hit by pitch.

    ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

    +0.5pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 10·WSH 4

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

10

Runs

5

16

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

22

TB

15

1

HR

1

3

BB

2

8

K

11

17

LOB

14

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9.5·LAD -314/WSH +248

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    198
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 94
    1913
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 93
    1015
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 91
    1912
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 90
    154
    20(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 90
    106
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

WSH vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    36.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    33.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    37.9%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.