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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7LAD
LAD

LAD

5-2

13
6
WSH

WSH

3-4

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
41,161 attended

Line movement

5 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

WSH no-vig %

28.7%

open 28.7%

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL32.7%24.7%WSH NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 13 · WSH 6 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD00524010113
WSH3010000206

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+234

Close price

+234

Open no-vig

28.7%

Close no-vig

28.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 94
    1910
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 91
    1015
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 91
    198
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 89
    307
    1(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 89
    1012
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 87
    1912
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -293

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 13–6. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Andy Pages

Andy Pages

CF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD5-2
13
6
WSH3-4
LAD5-2·WSH3-4
LAD

LAD

5-2

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-55124102
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
3-66232100
SPRINT26.123
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
2-66222100
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44112100
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44010010
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-55110002
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
3-44331001
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
3-44232111
SPRINT28.175
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-33000022
Team16-4141131613558
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
5.2744321
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
0.1000010
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0100100
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0322110
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.0000010
Team9.01166551
WSH

WSH

3-4

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44110012
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-55020001
SPRINT26.735
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-55110000
SPRINT29.395
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-33110021
SPRINT2872
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-55124101
SPRINT28.483
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-55110000
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-33110010
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
1-44011000
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33011010
Team11-37376116155
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
4.1111111144
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
0.2200110
K. WaldichukK. WaldichukRP
2.0111131
A. GranilloA. GranilloRP
2.0211200
Team9.0161313585

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • E. Sheehan
    98 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      35%·86.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      12%·75.5 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    25 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      52%·99.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      40%·85.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      8%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Casparius
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·96.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      23%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·91.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Treinen
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      64%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·90.1 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    87 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      23%·91.8 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      20%·91.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.2 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      15%·75.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Waldichuk
    36 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      33%·87.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      31%·83.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      8%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Granillo
    27 pitches·11% CSW
    • SL
      52%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      26%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·90.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Varland
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      35%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

11

13

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Apr 3LADLAD13@WSHWSH6today
Apr 4LADLAD10@WSHWSH5
Apr 5LADLAD8@WSHWSH6

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Apr 3LADLAD13@WSHWSH6today
Apr 4LADLAD10@WSHWSH5
Apr 5LADLAD8@WSHWSH6
Sep 5WSHWSH@LADLADupcoming
Sep 6WSHWSH@LADLADupcoming
Sep 7WSHWSH@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-29375%
WSHWSH+23430%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 1st Inning

LADLAD
A. Pages

A. Pages

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 11 ER · 11 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat WSH 13-6. Abrams's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+27pp→ 69% WP

Abrams · homered to right (387 feet), Wood scored and House scored.

LADTop 3rd Inning · 3-3
+27pp→ 59% WP

Ohtani · homered to right center (401 feet), T. Hernández scored and Pages scored.

LADTop 4th Inning · 7-4
+15pp→ 86% WP

Pages · homered to left (412 feet), T. Hernández scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD00524010113
WSH3010000206

Period scoring

LAD won 5 · WSH won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Abrams 3

0
0

Inn 2

5
1

Inn 3

Ohtani 3

Abrams 1

2
0

Inn 4

Pages 2

4
0

Inn 5

Freeman 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Tucker 1

0
2

Inn 8

Ruiz 1

1
0

Inn 9

Ohtani 1

LAD
WSH

Play-by-play · 641 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  3. B9

    Nuñez flied out to right.

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  10. B9

    Ben Casparius pitches to Nasim Nunez

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  11. B9

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  12. B9

    Abrams struck out looking.

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  16. B9

    Ben Casparius pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  17. B9

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  18. B9

    House flied out to center.

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  23. B9

    Ben Casparius pitches to Brady House

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  24. B9

    Casparius relieved Henriquez

    ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  27. T9

    · ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  28. T9

    Betts grounded out to third.

    · ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 13·WSH 6

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

13

Runs

6

16

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

32

TB

17

5

HR

1

5

BB

5

8

K

5

20

LOB

22

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9.5·LAD -293/WSH +234

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

WSH vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    37.9%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    36.7%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.