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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TB
TB

TB

2-2

3
2
MIL

MIL

3-1

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
20,022 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%MIL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 3 · MIL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB1000001013
MIL0000020002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    70
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    302
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    302
    8(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 93
    72
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    260
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 92
    112
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-163

Close price

-163

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -163

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

TB +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jonny DeLuca

Jonny DeLuca

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
William Contreras

William Contreras

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB2-2
3
2
MIL3-1
TB2-2·MIL3-1
TB

TB

2-2

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-44121101
SPRINT25.716
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
0-33000003
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-33000011
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.716
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-44000002
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-33211112
SPRINT2993
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-44011001
SPRINT26.225
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.496
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-33000002
C. MullinsC. MullinsCF
0-11000001
Team7-33333732214
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
6.0622031
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0000010
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0000220
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
0.2000010
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.1000000
Team9.0622271
MIL

MIL

3-1

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44122100
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-44000002
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT27.148
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT2744
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-33000000
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-44000003
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-44000000
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT29.294
G. SanchezG. SanchezDH
0-11000001
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11000000
Team6-3333262127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HarrisonK. Harrison★SP
5.0411181
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
2.0211031
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0000020
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0111110
Team9.07332142

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • N. Martinez
    88 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      24%·79.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      22%·89.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.4 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.3 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      38%·93.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·80.6 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Jax
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      27%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      20%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·97.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      20%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      38%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • K. Kelly
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      60%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      20%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·89.6 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • K. Harrison
    87 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      59%·95.1 mph·39% whiff
    • SV
      25%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      3%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    24 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      54%·96.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      17%·91.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.6 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Megill
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • KC
      60%·87.3 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      40%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    10 pitches·60% CSW
    • SI
      70%·96.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

3

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Mar 30TBTB3@MILMIL2today
Mar 31TBTB2@MILMIL6
Apr 1TBTB2@MILMIL8

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Mar 30TBTB3@MILMIL2today
Mar 31TBTB2@MILMIL6
Apr 1TBTB2@MILMIL8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB+13543%
MILMIL-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 41pp · Top 9th Inning

TBTB
J. DeLuca

J. DeLuca

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H

MILMIL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

K. Harrison

K. Harrison

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat MIL 3-2. Fortes's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (41pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+21pp→ 83% WP

Contreras · homered to center (415 feet), Turang scored.

TBTop 7th Inning · 2-2
+20pp→ 38% WP

DeLuca · homered to left center (438 feet).

TBTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+41pp→ 79% WP

Fortes · doubled to center, DeLuca scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB1000001013
MIL0000020002

Period scoring

TB won 3 · MIL won 1

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Contreras 2

1
0

Inn 7

DeLuca 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Fortes 1

TB
MIL

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 3·MIL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  3. B9

    Perkins grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Frelick out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

    −10pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  9. B9

    Kevin Kelly pitches to Blake Perkins

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  10. B9

    Kelly relieved Seymour

    ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  11. B9

    Perkins hit for Lockridge

    ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  12. B9

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  13. B9

    Hamilton flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

    −12pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  15. B9

    Ian Seymour pitches to David Hamilton

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  16. B9

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  17. B9

    Mitchell struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

    −13pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  23. B9

    Ian Seymour pitches to Garrett Mitchell

    · ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  24. B9

    ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  25. B9

    Frelick hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

    +11pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  28. B9

    Ian Seymour pitches to Sal Frelick

    ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  29. B9

    Seymour relieved Cleavinger

    ·

    TB 3·MIL 2

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 3·MIL 2

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

3

Runs

2

7

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

14

TB

10

2

HR

1

2

BB

2

14

K

7

9

LOB

17

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·TB +135/MIL -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Coleman CrowMIL
    1.7± 0.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    63.2%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.2%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.6%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483