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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6MIL
TB

TB

2-4

2
8
MIL

MIL

5-1

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
21,949 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

MIL no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%MIL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

TB 2 · MIL 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0020000002
MIL002000068

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -136

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Tampa Bay Rays, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Chandler Simpson

Chandler Simpson

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB2-4
2
8
MIL5-1
TB2-4·MIL5-1
TB

TB

2-4

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44112101
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-33000010
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.278
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000002
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-33000003
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-44010001
SPRINT26.225
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-33020010
SPRINT29.496
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-44000002
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
0-11100010
SPRINT26.838
J. DeLucaJ. DeLucaRF
0-11000000
R. ViladeR. ViladeRF
0-11000001
Team5-31312521311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
5.0321181
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
2.0100020
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
1.0211000
Team8.09852101
MIL

MIL

5-1

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-22212110
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44120000
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
2-44122002
SPRINT27.148
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-33100011
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
2-44122002
SPRINT29.798
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-44000002
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-44001001
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-44111002
SPRINT29.294
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-44110000
Team9-33338981210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
6.0422271
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0000010
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.0000100
D. HallD. HallRP
1.0100030
Team9.05223111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    89 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      34%·90.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.1 mph·80% whiff
    • CU
      3%·79.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      3%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      28%·83.0 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      22%·90.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      19%·91.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      19%·80.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      6%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      40%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      35%·96.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Englert
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      31%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·74.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      23%·86.2 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    94 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      62%·98.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      24%·93.6 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      9%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    19 pitches·47% CSW
    • CH
      42%·84.3 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      42%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.3 mph·— whiff
  • G. Anderson
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      47%·79.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Ashby
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      56%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·81.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

2

Runs

8

2

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Mar 30TBTB3@MILMIL2
Mar 31TBTB2@MILMIL6
Apr 1TBTB2@MILMIL8today

Season series

MIL wins series 2-1

Mar 30TBTB3@MILMIL2
Mar 31TBTB2@MILMIL6
Apr 1TBTB2@MILMIL8today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB+11347%
MILMIL-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

TBTB
C. Simpson

C. Simpson

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat TB 8-2. Turang's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

MIL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 59% WP

Díaz homered to right (364 feet), Palacios scored.

MILBottom 3rd Inning · 2-2
+23pp→ 68% WP

Turang · homered to center (392 feet), Hamilton scored.

MILBottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+17pp→ 75% WP

Ortiz · singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0020000002
MIL00200006—8

Period scoring

TB won 0 · MIL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
2

Inn 3

Turang 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
6

Inn 8

Yelich 2

0

Inn 9

TB
MIL

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  2. T9

    Vilade struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  8. T9

    DL Hall pitches to Ryan Vilade

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  9. T9

    Vilade hit for Palacios

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  10. T9

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  11. T9

    Williamson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  16. T9

    DL Hall pitches to Ben Williamson

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  17. T9

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  18. T9

    Simpson singled to left, Mullins to second.

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  21. T9

    DL Hall pitches to Chandler Simpson

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  22. T9

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  23. T9

    Fortes struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  29. T9

    DL Hall pitches to Nick Fortes

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

  30. T9

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 8

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

2

Runs

8

5

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

9

TB

13

1

HR

1

3

BB

2

11

K

10

14

LOB

11

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 7·TB +113/MIL -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

MIL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Coleman CrowMIL
    1.7± 0.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    62.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.9%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.2%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 96
    302
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    70
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    303
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 94
    222
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 93
    223
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 93
    228
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs