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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

57-84

2
1
CHC

CHC

81-61

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,011 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 2 · CHC 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH1001000002
CHC0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 6·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH57-84
2
1
CHC81-61
WSH57-84·CHC81-61
WSH

WSH

57-84

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-33110000
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.457
J. AlfaroJ. Alfaro★C
2-44021002
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000000
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44121100
SPRINT29.395
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-33000001
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-33000000
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT2872
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-33000001
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro1B
0-11000001
Team7-3131272107
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. LordB. Lord★RP
5.2211470
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.1000100
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000200
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000020
C. HenryC. HenryRP
1.0100010
Team9.03117100
CHC

CHC

81-61

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-11000021
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000002
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.457
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-22110011
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT28.278
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-33001011
SPRINT25.716
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-33000010
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-22000011
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000001
C. SantanaC. Santana1B
0-11000001
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
0-11000000
Team3-27271310710
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
7.0722031
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0000020
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0000020
Team9.0722071

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • B. Lord
    90 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.3 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.6 mph·30% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      59%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      41%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
  • C. Henry
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      47%·81.6 mph·67% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      33%·79.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      33%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      33%·78.3 mph·— whiff

CHC

  • M. Boyd
    87 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.4 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      26%·78.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      15%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·72.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      1%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      54%·100.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      23%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      73%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      27%·85.0 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

3

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Sep 5WSHWSH5@CHCCHC11
Sep 6WSHWSH2@CHCCHC1today
Sep 7WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3

Season series

CHC lead series 3-2

Jun 3CHCCHC8@WSHWSH3
Jun 4CHCCHC0@WSHWSH2
Jun 5CHCCHC7@WSHWSH1
Sep 5WSHWSH5@CHCCHC11
Sep 6WSHWSH2@CHCCHC1today
Sep 7WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 9th Inning

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

CHCCHC
P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 7 H

How it ended

WSH beat CHC 2-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 52% WP

Happ · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Busch out at second.

WSHBottom 7th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 59% WP

Castro · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Kelly out at second.

WSHBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 100% WP

Castro · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH1001000002
CHC0100000001

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · CHC won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Alfaro 1

0
1

Inn 2

Kelly 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Lile 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
CHC

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  3. B9

    Castro flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

    −17pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  10. B9

    Cole Henry pitches to Willi Castro

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  11. B9

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  12. B9

    Kelly struck out swinging, Hoerner stole second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

    −10pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  18. B9

    Cole Henry pitches to Carson Kelly

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  19. B9

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  20. B9

    Hoerner singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

    +8pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  24. B9

    Cole Henry pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  25. B9

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  26. B9

    Turner fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

    −11pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

  30. B9

    Cole Henry pitches to Justin Turner

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 1

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

2

Runs

1

7

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

11

TB

4

1

HR

0

0

BB

7

7

K

10

9

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 9 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    68.2%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    69.5%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    67.0%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 23, 25sim 92
    42
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 92
    91
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 91
    202
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 91
    206
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 90
    91
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 89
    201
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs