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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SD
MIL

MIL

95-62

4
5
SD

SD

86-71

Petco Park · San Diego, California
42,371 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

MIL 4 · SD 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
MIL030000000104
SD100010100115

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 22·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Milwaukee Brewers, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andrew Vaughn

Andrew Vaughn

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Jose Iglesias

Jose Iglesias

2B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
MIL95-62
4
5
SD86-71
MIL95-62·SD86-71
MIL

MIL

95-62

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-33012030
SPRINT27.148
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-66000002
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44110012
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000011
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-55101001
SPRINT28.790
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
2-33120011
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-11100021
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
2-55021000
SPRINT28.175
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-55010002
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11000000
J. BauersJ. Bauers1B
0-11000000
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins1B
0-11000001
Team7-39394740811
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.0422161
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.0000020
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0111210
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0100010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0100000
R. ZastryznyR. ZastryznyRP
1.0110200
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.1110000
Team10.19535101
SD

SD

86-71

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-55111000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44110011
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-55020002
SPRINT28.688
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-55001001
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44010011
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-44000012
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
1-55110001
SPRINT27.354
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
2-33221110
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
0-22000002
F. FerminF. FerminC
1-22011000
Team9-39395941510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. PivettaN. Pivetta★SP
5.2433550
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
1.0000120
K. HartK. HartRP
0.1100000
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0100110
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000020
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0010010
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.0100100
Team11.07438110

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Sep 23MILMIL4@SDSD5today
Sep 24MILMIL0@SDSD7
Sep 24MILMIL3@SDSD1

Season series

SD leads series 3-1

Jun 7SDSD2@MILMIL0
Jun 7SDSD3@MILMIL4
Jun 8SDSD1@MILMIL0
Sep 23MILMIL4@SDSD5today
Sep 24MILMIL0@SDSD7
Sep 24MILMIL3@SDSD1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 42pp · Bottom 11th Inning

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

SDSD
J. Iglesias

J. Iglesias

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 5 BB

How it ended

SD beat MIL 5-4. Iglesias's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Win probability

SD vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 2nd Inning · 3-1
+18pp→ 74% WP

Johnson · flied out to left.

SDBottom 7th Inning · 3-3
+26pp→ 59% WP

Arraez · singled to right, Iglesias scored, Laureano to third.

SDBottom 11th Inning · 4-4
+42pp→ 82% WP

Iglesias · hit sacrifice bunt to third, Johnson to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
MIL030000000104
SD100010100115

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · SD won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Cronenworth 1

3
0

Inn 2

Yelich 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Iglesias 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Arraez 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
1

Inn 10

Frelick 1

Sheets 1

0
1

Inn 11

Fermin 1

MIL
SD

Play-by-play · 710 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    ·

    MIL 4·SD 5

  2. B11

    Fermin singled to center, Johnson scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 5

    +18pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 5

  4. B11

    Grant Anderson pitches to Freddy Fermin

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 5

  5. B11

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  6. B11

    Iglesias hit sacrifice bunt to third, Johnson to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

    +42pp

  7. B11

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  8. B11

    Grant Anderson pitches to Jose Iglesias

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  9. B11

    Anderson relieved Zastryzny

    ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  10. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    MIL 4·SD 4

  11. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    MIL 4·SD 4

  12. T11

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  13. T11

    Chourio grounded into double play, second to first, Yelich out at second.

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  14. T11

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  15. T11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  16. T11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  17. T11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  18. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  19. T11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  20. T11

    Bradgley Rodriguez pitches to Jackson Chourio

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  21. T11

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  22. T11

    Yelich intentionally walked, Ortiz to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

    −6pp

  23. T11

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  24. T11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  25. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  26. T11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  27. T11

    Bradgley Rodriguez pitches to Christian Yelich

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  28. T11

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

  29. T11

    Ortiz reached on infield single to catcher, Durbin to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

    −16pp

  30. T11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 4·SD 4

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

5

7

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

7

TB

12

0

HR

1

8

BB

5

11

K

10

23

LOB

20

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

SD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.4± 2.7low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 0.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    43.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.7%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 95
    80
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    228
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    223
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 94
    222
    29(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 93
    85
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 91
    84
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs