MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CIN

CHC

88-67

CIN

79-76

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

31,756 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
48.2%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.5%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.3± 3.7low
Edward CabreraCHC
4.9± 2.7low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.3± 1.1high
Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high
Michael BuschCHC
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 2.9high
JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.6high
Ian HappCHC
1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.6± 1.3high
JJ BledayCIN
0.6± 0.7high
Sal StewartCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

CIN

.725

OPS

◀

.715

.708

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

4.28

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CHC 3 · CIN 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	3
CIN	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	2	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Busch1B	.255	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.301	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. BallesterosDH	.267	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. SwansonSS	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. ShawRF	.223	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. Castro2B	.177	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. McGuireC	.227	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
S. SuzukiRF	.242	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. AlcantaraDH	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.257	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	7	3	2	1	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.255

.301

.241

.267

.247

.246

.223

.177

.227

.242

.143

.257

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. AssadSP	4.0	3	2	2	2	2	74
D. PomeranzRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	13
A. CivaleSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	3	29
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	19
Team	8.0	9	6	6	2	9	135

Player

4.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

135

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. FriedlCF	.259	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
S. SteerLF	.243	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
G. LuxLF	.265	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. HaysLF	.266	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. BensonRF	.231	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. De La CruzSS	.262	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. StephensonC	.224	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
K. Hayes3B	.243	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.223	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.349	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.272	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	6	9	6	3	2	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Z. LittellSP	5.0	3	2	2	1	4	73
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
C. BurnsSP	1.1	3	1	1	0	1	36
T. SantillanRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8
E. PaganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	7	136

Team

CHC

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.