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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8MIL
MIL

MIL

89-55

10
2
PIT

PIT

64-80

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
12,443 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 10 · PIT 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL41400010010
PIT0100000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 6, 25sim 91
    84
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 91
    85
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 89
    146
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 88
    84
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 88
    222
    29(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 87
    86
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 10–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andrew Vaughn

Andrew Vaughn

1B

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Cam Devanney

Cam Devanney

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL89-55
10
2
PIT64-80
MIL89-55·PIT64-80
MIL

MIL

89-55

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-33122021
SPRINT28.586
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-44110010
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44110012
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-44322010
SPRINT2744
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
4-55141000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-55000003
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
2-44121010
SPRINT28.586
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-44111011
SPRINT26.838
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-55111002
Team14-383810148079
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
7.0311280
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
1.0211120
C. YohoC. YohoRP
1.0000020
Team9.05223120
PIT

PIT

64-80

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-22000010
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT24.85
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-33000000
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-33110001
SPRINT27.662
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-44000004
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-44000002
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
1-33011001
J. BaeJ. Bae★CF
0-22100011
C. DevanneyC. DevanneySS
1-11011000
N. YorkeN. Yorke3B
0-11000001
A. CanarioA. CanarioLF
0-11000000
H. DavisH. DavisC
0-11000001
Team5-31312520312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ChandlerB. Chandler★SP
2.2999330
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.1200000
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
2.0000120
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0211120
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000210
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0100010
Team9.0141010790

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    108 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      55%·99.0 mph·23% whiff
    • CU
      24%·86.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      15%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Payamps
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      50%·84.1 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.2 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Yoho
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      50%·78.1 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      50%·93.5 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    68 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      44%·98.3 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      26%·90.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      10%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    33 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      30%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·83.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Moreta
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      46%·82.9 mph·20% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      41%·97.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      36%·89.8 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      90%·92.8 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·82.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      41%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      35%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

5

10

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 5-2

May 22MILMIL8@PITPIT5
May 23MILMIL5@PITPIT6
May 24MILMIL1@PITPIT2
May 25MILMIL6@PITPIT5
Sep 5MILMIL5@PITPIT2
Sep 6MILMIL4@PITPIT1
Sep 7MILMIL10@PITPIT2today

Season series

MIL wins series 10-3

May 22MILMIL8@PITPIT5
May 23MILMIL5@PITPIT6
May 24MILMIL1@PITPIT2
May 25MILMIL6@PITPIT5
Jun 23PITPIT5@MILMIL4
Jun 24PITPIT3@MILMIL9
Jun 25PITPIT2@MILMIL4
Aug 11PITPIT1@MILMIL7
Aug 12PITPIT0@MILMIL14
Aug 13PITPIT5@MILMIL12
Sep 5MILMIL5@PITPIT2
Sep 6MILMIL4@PITPIT1
Sep 7MILMIL10@PITPIT2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 1st Inning

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 1 R · 1.600 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
C. Devanney

C. Devanney

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 3 K · 9 ER · 9 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIL beat PIT 10-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 84% WP

Bauers · doubled to right, Turang scored and Collins scored, Contreras to third.

MILTop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+10pp→ 91% WP

Jansen · doubled to right.

MILTop 3rd Inning · 9-1
+6pp→ 98% WP

Turang · singled to right, Perkins scored and Ortiz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL41400010010
PIT0100000102

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · PIT won 1

4
0

Inn 1

Bauers 2

1
1

Inn 2

Collins 1

Peguero 1

4
0

Inn 3

Turang 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Jansen 1

0
1

Inn 8

Devanney 1

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
PIT

Play-by-play · 618 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  3. B9

    Bart grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  6. B9

    Craig Yoho pitches to Joey Bart

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  7. B9

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  8. B9

    Cruz struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  12. B9

    Craig Yoho pitches to Oneil Cruz

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  13. B9

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  14. B9

    Davis struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  20. B9

    Craig Yoho pitches to Henry Davis

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  21. B9

    Yoho relieved Payamps

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  22. B9

    Davis hit for McCutchen

    ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  25. T9

    · ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  26. T9

    Ortiz grounded out to second.

    · ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 10·PIT 2

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

10

Runs

2

14

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

18

TB

7

0

HR

0

7

BB

3

9

K

12

28

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PIT vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.9± 1.8high
  • Oneil CruzPIT
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    39.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.1%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    40.2%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.