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FINAL+2WSH
MIA

MIA

65-73

0
2
WSH

WSH

54-83

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
13,835 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

MIA 0 · WSH 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000000000
WSH020000002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 30, 25sim 92
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 92
    282
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 90
    111
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 29, 25sim 90
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 89
    307
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 88
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 1·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Miami Marlins, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Victor Mesa Jr.

Victor Mesa Jr.

CF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.

Luis Garcia Jr.

1B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA65-73
0
2
WSH54-83
MIA65-73·WSH54-83
MIA

MIA

65-73

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-11000000
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000001
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000002
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-33000011
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-33000012
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.483
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
0-22000011
D. HillD. Hill★RF
0-11000000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-33000000
J. WiemerJ. WiemerRF
0-22000002
SPRINT28.891
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
0-11000000
SPRINT26.326
V. Mesa Jr.V. Mesa Jr.CF
1-22010001
Team2-30300200310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. BacharL. Bachar★RP
2.0222020
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
1.2100020
S. MartinezS. MartinezRP
1.1000000
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.1000110
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.2000020
Team8.0322170
WSH

WSH

54-83

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000003
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-33000000
SPRINT28.483
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000001
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-33120000
SPRINT26.735
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-22111010
SPRINT29.395
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
0-22001000
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
0-33000002
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000001
C. StubbsC. Stubbs★C
0-33000000
Team3-2626232017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AlvarezA. Alvarez★RP
5.0100240
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000020
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0100030
C. HenryC. HenryRP
1.0000000
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000110
Team9.02003100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • L. Bachar
    39 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.0 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      31%·86.5 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      23%·89.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      3%·82.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Gibson
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      29%·77.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      24%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·91.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      65%·98.2 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      35%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Martinez
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      43%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      62%·88.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      31%·98.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.9 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • A. Alvarez
    81 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      33%·82.7 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      27%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      26%·83.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      44%·88.5 mph·40% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      65%·93.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      24%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      12%·83.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Henry
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      29%·80.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

3

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 13MIAMIA11@WSHWSH9
Jun 14MIAMIA4@WSHWSH3
Jun 15MIAMIA3@WSHWSH1
Sep 1MIAMIA0@WSHWSH2today
Sep 2MIAMIA2@WSHWSH5
Sep 3MIAMIA5@WSHWSH10

Season series

MIA leads series 5-2

Apr 11WSHWSH7@MIAMIA4
Apr 12WSHWSH6@MIAMIA7
Apr 13WSHWSH4@MIAMIA11
Jun 13MIAMIA11@WSHWSH9
Jun 14MIAMIA4@WSHWSH3
Jun 15MIAMIA3@WSHWSH1
Sep 1MIAMIA0@WSHWSH2today
Sep 2MIAMIA2@WSHWSH5
Sep 3MIAMIA5@WSHWSH10
Sep 8WSHWSH15@MIAMIA7
Sep 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA5
Sep 10WSHWSH3@MIAMIA8
Sep 11WSHWSH0@MIAMIA5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

MIAMIA
V. Mesa Jr.

V. Mesa Jr.

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

L. Bachar

L. Bachar

RP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 2 H

WSHWSH
L. Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

A. Alvarez

A. Alvarez

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat MIA 2-0.

Win probability

WSH vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+15pp→ 66% WP

Lile · tripled to center, García Jr. scored.

WSHTop 5th Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 78% WP

Wiemer · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000000000
WSH02000000—2

Period scoring

MIA won 0 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Lile 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
WSH

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  2. T9

    Hernández lined out to left.

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  4. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  5. T9

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  6. T9

    Norby struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

    +5pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  13. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Connor Norby

    · ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  14. T9

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  15. T9

    Lopez walked.

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

    −5pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  24. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Otto Lopez

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  25. T9

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  26. T9

    Marsee grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

    +5pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·WSH 2

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

0

Runs

2

2

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

3

TB

5

0

HR

0

3

BB

1

10

K

7

13

LOB

4

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

WSH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 3.4low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    43.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.