• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5CHC
CHC

CHC

61-43

6
1
CHW

CHW

38-67

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,432 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 6 · CHW 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000003306
CHW0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 28, 25sim 96
    222
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    165
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    226
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 93
    142
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 93
    252
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 93
    226
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Ian Happ

Ian Happ

LF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Mike Tauchman

Mike Tauchman

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC61-43
6
1
CHW38-67
CHC61-43·CHW38-67
CHC

CHC

61-43

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-55010002
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-55010001
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-55010002
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-55110002
SPRINT29.294
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44110001
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-33221111
SPRINT27.662
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44012002
SPRINT27.867
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-33110010
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33113110
SPRINT28.992
Team10-373761062311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HortonC. Horton★SP
6.1400130
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.2000000
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000000
R. PresslyR. PresslyRP
1.0211001
Team9.0611131
CHW

CHW

38-67

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
2-44121102
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT2744
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44000000
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-33010000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-33000000
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT26.326
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
0-33000001
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
0-33000000
Team6-3030161113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
5.0300060
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.0100010
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
0.2333012
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
1.0111000
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.1100030
Team9.010663112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Horton
    84 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.6 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.9 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      10%·84.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Pressly
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.5 mph·— whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·90.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      38%·74.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·93.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.5 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • A. Civale
    69 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      39%·89.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      26%·77.6 mph·71% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      9%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      6%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Altavilla
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      36%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      33%·90.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      47%·86.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      6%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      38%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.7 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      38%·80.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      31%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      8%·88.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

6

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Jul 25CHCCHC5@CHWCHW12
Jul 26CHCCHC6@CHWCHW1today
Jul 27CHCCHC5@CHWCHW4

Season series

CHC lead series 4-1

May 16CHWCHW3@CHCCHC13
May 17CHWCHW3@CHCCHC7
May 18CHWCHW2@CHCCHC6
Jul 25CHCCHC5@CHWCHW12
Jul 26CHCCHC6@CHWCHW1today
Jul 27CHCCHC5@CHWCHW4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 7th Inning

CHCCHC
I. Happ

I. Happ

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Horton

C. Horton

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
M. Tauchman

M. Tauchman

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

CHC beat CHW 6-1. Happ's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 6th Inning · 0-0
+13pp→ 55% WP

Meidroth · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tauchman out at second.

CHCTop 7th Inning · 1-0
+20pp→ 73% WP

Happ · homered to right center (391 feet).

CHCTop 7th Inning · 3-0
+19pp→ 91% WP

Shaw · homered to left (388 feet), Hoerner scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000003306
CHW0000000011

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · CHW won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Shaw 2

3
0

Inn 8

Swanson 2

0
1

Inn 9

Tauchman 1

CHC
CHW

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  3. B9

    Vargas grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Meidroth out at second.

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

    −0.6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  8. B9

    Ryan Pressly pitches to Miguel Vargas

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  9. B9

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  10. B9

    Benintendi flied out to left.

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

    −1pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  14. B9

    Ryan Pressly pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    · ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  15. B9

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  16. B9

    Meidroth singled to center.

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

    +0.9pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  18. B9

    Ryan Pressly pitches to Chase Meidroth

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  19. B9

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  20. B9

    Tauchman homered to right center (381 feet).

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

    +0.5pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 0

  29. B9

    Ryan Pressly pitches to Mike Tauchman

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 1

  30. B9

    Pressly relieved Keller

    ·

    CHC 6·CHW 0

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

6

Runs

1

10

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

17

TB

9

2

HR

1

3

BB

1

11

K

3

16

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHW vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.8± 1.6high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    41.2%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.6%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.3%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.