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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6CHW
PHI

PHI

61-47

3
9
CHW

CHW

40-69

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
12,718 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

PHI 3 · CHW 9 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0002000013
CHW010100709

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    254
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 95
    222
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    226
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    65
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 94
    165
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 93
    252
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 30·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Philadelphia Phillies, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Brandon Marsh

Brandon Marsh

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Lenyn Sosa

Lenyn Sosa

2B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI61-47
3
9
CHW40-69
PHI61-47·CHW40-69
PHI

PHI

61-47

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000000
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000001
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT2744
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33111002
SPRINT27.148
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
2-44121101
SPRINT28.175
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
1-44011002
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT28.688
J. RojasJ. Rojas★CF
1-44010000
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
1-33010010
W. WilsonW. Wilson3B
0-11000000
Team8-3535383118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
5.0722002
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100000
M. LazarM. LazarRP
0.1766001
S. JohnsonS. JohnsonSP
0.2111011
A. RangelA. RangelRP
1.0100010
Team8.01799024
CHW

CHW

40-69

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
3-55130000
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-22010000
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-55110001
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-55113100
SPRINT28.381
K. TeelK. Teel★C
2-44221100
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
3-44130000
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT26.326
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-44123100
SPRINT24.12
J. RojasJ. Rojas★3B
1-44010000
L. SosaL. Sosa2B
2-22121000
Team17-39399179402
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. AlexanderT. Alexander★RP
3.1322130
M. VasilM. VasilRP
4.0300030
B. EisertB. EisertRP
0.2000010
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
1.0211011
Team9.0833181

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • T. Walker
    80 pitches·19% CSW
    • FS
      29%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·86.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      18%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·74.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    26 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      31%·80.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      27%·88.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      4%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Rangel
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·80.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      10%·73.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Banks
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SL
      46%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·81.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Johnson
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      38%·87.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·85.9 mph·100% whiff

CHW

  • M. Vasil
    55 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.9 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      29%·81.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      11%·85.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      2%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    49 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      24%·83.3 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      24%·90.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      22%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      10%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.6 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      44%·82.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      50%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·82.1 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

17

3

Runs

9

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Jul 28PHIPHI2@CHWCHW6
Jul 29PHIPHI6@CHWCHW3
Jul 30PHIPHI3@CHWCHW9today

Season series

CHW win series 2-1

Jul 28PHIPHI2@CHWCHW6
Jul 29PHIPHI6@CHWCHW3
Jul 30PHIPHI3@CHWCHW9today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 7th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Marsh

B. Marsh

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 H

CHWCHW
L. Sosa

L. Sosa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

M. Vasil

M. Vasil

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

CHW beat PHI 9-3. Sosa's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

CHW vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 4th Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 66% WP

Kemp · singled to center, Castellanos scored, Marsh to second.

CHWBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 51% WP

Montgomery · homered to left center (379 feet).

CHWBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+18pp→ 79% WP

Sosa · singled to right, Tauchman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0002000013
CHW01010070—9

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · CHW won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Teel 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
1

Inn 4

Castellanos 1

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
7

Inn 7

Vargas 3

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Marsh 1

PHI
CHW

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  2. T9

    Marchán fouled out to third.

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  5. T9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Rafael Marchan

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  6. T9

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  7. T9

    Rojas safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rojas, Stott to second.

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  11. T9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Johan Rojas

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  12. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  13. T9

    Stott singled to right.

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  17. T9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Bryson Stott

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  18. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  19. T9

    Kemp struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  24. T9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Otto Kemp

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  25. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  26. T9

    Marsh homered to right (371 feet).

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 9

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 9

  30. T9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Brandon Marsh

    · ·

    PHI 3·CHW 9

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

3

Runs

9

8

Hits

17

0

Errors

1

12

TB

31

1

HR

4

1

BB

0

8

K

2

12

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

CHW vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Tristan PetersCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.8± 1.6high
  • Colson MontgomeryCHW
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Edgar QueroCHW
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.6± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    41.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.2%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.