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FINAL+5MIN
SD

SD

76-61

2
7
MIN

MIN

62-74

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
26,956 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

MIN

MIN

.650

OPS

.715

▶

.712

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.316

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.61

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.81

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

SD 2 · MIN 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000000022
MIN002130107

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 56-31
61%Last 30 · 297-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off San Diego Padres, 7–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. BuxtonMIN+23.0pp
  2. 2A. MartinMIN+22.6pp
  3. 3K. HartSD−20.8pp

SD · top performer

SD
Bryce Johnson

Bryce Johnson

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2644000002
L. Arraez2B
.2825010000
M. Machado3B
.2862000011
R. O'HearnRF
.2594010000
R. LaureanoLF
.3054010002
G. Sheets1B
.2704020001
J. Cronenworth2B
.2513010000
J. Iglesias2B
.2254000000
F. FerminC
.2464111003
- B. JohnsonRF
.3331011000
- W. Wagner3B
.2000000010
- M. McCoy2B
.0000100000
Team35282029

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. MorganRP
2.01000229
K. HartRP
1.11331129
J. EstradaRP
0.21001221
W. PeraltaRP
1.03331126
Y. MatsuiRP
2.02111333
M. MillerRP
1.00000113
Team8.0877410151

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonCF
.2715222101
M. WallnerRF
.2095000002
B. LeeSS
.2443210011
L. Keaschall2B
.3152211010
K. Clemens1B
.2113000002
R. JeffersC
.2602011010
R. Lewis3B
.2294022001
J. OutmanCF
.1944011002
A. MartinRF
.2713100011
Team317871410

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. RyanSP
7.050018104
M. TonkinRP
2.03221137
Team9.082229141

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • Y. Matsui
    33 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      36%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      24%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • D. Morgan
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • CU
      41%·83.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      34%·98.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      21%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·89.6 mph·— whiff
  • K. Hart
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      28%·82.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      21%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      54%·95.5 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      27%·89.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      12%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      48%·97.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      38%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • M. Miller
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·101.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      8%·91.1 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    104 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.9 mph·42% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      10%·80.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      7%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    37 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      73%·92.4 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      3%·79.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

2

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

Aug 30SDSD4@MINMIN7
Aug 30SDSD12@MINMIN3
Aug 31SDSD2@MINMIN7today

Season series

MIN wins series 2-1

Aug 30SDSD4@MINMIN7
Aug 30SDSD12@MINMIN3
Aug 31SDSD2@MINMIN7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

SDSD
B. Johnson

B. Johnson

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

Y. Matsui

Y. Matsui

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIN beat SD 7-2. Buxton's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

MIN vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 80% WP

Buxton · homered to left (366 feet), Martin scored.

MINBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 88% WP

Outman · singled to center, Keaschall scored, Jeffers to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000000022
MIN00213010—7

Period scoring

SD won 0 · MIN won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Buxton 2

0
1

Inn 4

Outman 1

0
3

Inn 5

Keaschall 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Lewis 1

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Fermin 1

SD
MIN

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  2. T9

    Arraez flied out to left.

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  5. T9

    Johnson to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  6. T9

    Johnson to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  9. T9

    Michael Tonkin pitches to Luis Arraez

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  10. T9

    ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  11. T9

    Johnson singled to right, Fermin scored.

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SD 1·MIN 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 1·MIN 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 1·MIN 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 1·MIN 7

  17. T9

    Michael Tonkin pitches to Bryce Johnson

    · ·

    SD 2·MIN 7

  18. T9

    ·

    SD 1·MIN 7

  19. T9

    Fermin doubled to left, McCoy scored.

    · ·

    SD 1·MIN 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 1·MIN 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 0·MIN 7

  22. T9

    Michael Tonkin pitches to Freddy Fermin

    · ·

    SD 1·MIN 7

  23. T9

    · ·

    SD 0·MIN 7

  24. T9

    Iglesias grounded into double play, third to first, McCoy to second, Sheets out at third.

    · ·

    SD 0·MIN 7

    +0.5pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 0·MIN 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SD 0·MIN 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 0·MIN 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SD 0·MIN 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 0·MIN 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 0·MIN 7

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

2

Runs

7

8

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

11

TB

12

0

HR

1

2

BB

4

9

K

10

21

LOB

15

Player projections

MIN vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Joe RyanMIN
    6.1± 3.4low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.1± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    5.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 0.9low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Tristan GrayMIN
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Josh BellMIN
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    3.5± 3.9low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.8%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    41.6%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.7%

    P(MIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.6%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872