Horse Racing·Model picks
Per-game Horse Racing model picks roll out league by league as the rating engine settles. MLB shipped first because of sample size. Each league lights up here once its rating engine and closing-line ingest are both stable.
Horse Racing picks coming soon
Per-game model picks for Horse Racing land here once the rating engine + closing-line ingest are stable for this league. Until then, the Horse Racing edge surface shows where the market and our power-rank derivative disagree.
See Horse Racing edges →Why MLB shipped first
Baseball's sample size is enormous (162 games per team) and the rating engine settles fast. Other leagues need either a deeper covariate set (NBA pace, NFL injury context) or a larger pre-season corpus before our Elo derivative beats the consumer-site benchmark we hold ourselves to. We'd rather ship picks late than ship picks that would lose your money.
Read the methodology →Horse Racing betting markets
Horse racing is pari-mutuel — your odds are not fixed at bet time, they shift as the pool fills. Late money matters; the take-rate (track + state cut) is meaningfully larger than fixed-odds sports.
What the Horse Racing model will weight
When Horse Racing model picks ship, the rating engine will weight the factors below. The shape mirrors the MLB model that's live today, which back-tested at 55% on 2,932 games. The full methodology is at /methodology.
Sharp angles · Horse Racing
These are the recurring patterns sharp Horse Racing bettors actually work. Each one has shown up in the post-mortem of multiple winning weeks. Treat them as a starting point for handicapping, not a substitute for it.
What you can use right now