Horse Racing·Model edges

Where the modeldisagrees with Vegas.

Every game on tonight's slate, ranked by the gap between our win-probability projection and the implied probability of the current moneyline. Larger gap = sharper edge.

Model edges currently ship for NBA + MLB. Horse Racing edges roll out once we have a per-team rating system in production for this league.

See the roadmap →

Horse Racing betting markets

How the Horse Racing market works

Horse racing is pari-mutuel — your odds are not fixed at bet time, they shift as the pool fills. Late money matters; the take-rate (track + state cut) is meaningfully larger than fixed-odds sports.

What the Horse Racing model will weight

The factor stack

When Horse Racing model edges ship, this is the factor stack the rating engine will weight. Same shape as the MLB model that's already live — back-tested 55% on 2,932 games, public methodology at /methodology.

  • 01Per-horse speed figures (Beyer, Brisnet, Equibase)
  • 02Distance + surface specialization
  • 03Trainer + jockey win rate
  • 04Pace projection (will it be slow + setup-friendly for closers, or fast + speed-favoring)
  • 05Class drop / class jump from previous race

Sharp angles · Horse Racing

What sharps watch for today

Until the model ships, here are the recurring patterns sharp Horse Racing bettors look for. Each is a real angle that's appeared in the post-mortem of multiple winning weeks — not a guarantee, just a starting point for handicapping.

  • ✓Exacta + trifecta value when the chalk has a clear winning case but the place is contested
  • ✓Pick 4 / Pick 6 'A-B-C' tickets that key your strongest opinion in 1–2 legs
  • ✓Late-money horses in 5+ furlong sprints (track-bias driven)
  • ✓First-time-Lasix runners stepping up in class

What you can use right now

Live surfaces while the Horse Racing model ships

  • ✓ /horse-racing/scores — today's slate with live updates and Vegas line context
  • ✓ /horse-racing/odds — every game with spread + total + tip-off in one scan
  • ✓ /best-bets — cross-sport edge leaderboard (live for MLB + NBA today)
  • ✓ /sportsbooks — every state's legal sportsbook list, geo-fenced CTAs to DraftKings + FanDuel + BetMGM + Caesars + ESPN BET
  • ✓ /methodology — full breakdown of how the rating engine works on the leagues we've already shipped