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Horse Racing·Model edges

Where the model
disagrees with Vegas.

Tonight's slate ranked by the gap between the model's home-team win probability and the moneyline's de-juiced implied probability. The list runs largest gap first. Edges under 3 percentage points sit inside model noise; sharps tend to live at five or higher on the same side.

Model edges currently ship for the four leagues with live Elo: MLB · NBA · WNBA · NHL. Horse Racing edges activate once a per-team rating system lands for this league.

See the roadmap →

Horse Racing betting markets

How the Horse Racing market works

Horse racing is pari-mutuel — your odds are not fixed at bet time, they shift as the pool fills. Late money matters; the take-rate (track + state cut) is meaningfully larger than fixed-odds sports.

What the Horse Racing model will weight

The factor stack

When Horse Racing model edges ship, the rating engine will weight the factors below. The shape mirrors the MLB model that's live today, which back-tested at 55% on 2,932 games. The full methodology is at /methodology.

  • 01Per-horse speed figures (Beyer, Brisnet, Equibase)
  • 02Distance + surface specialization
  • 03Trainer + jockey win rate
  • 04Pace projection (will it be slow + setup-friendly for closers, or fast + speed-favoring)
  • 05Class drop / class jump from previous race

Sharp angles · Horse Racing

What sharps watch for today

These are the recurring patterns sharp Horse Racing bettors actually work. Each one has shown up in the post-mortem of multiple winning weeks. Treat them as a starting point for handicapping, not a substitute for it.

  • ✓Exacta + trifecta value when the chalk has a clear winning case but the place is contested
  • ✓Pick 4 / Pick 6 'A-B-C' tickets that key your strongest opinion in 1–2 legs
  • ✓Late-money horses in 5+ furlong sprints (track-bias driven)
  • ✓First-time-Lasix runners stepping up in class

What you can use right now

Live surfaces while the Horse Racing model ships

  • ✓ /horse-racing/scores — today's slate with live updates and Vegas line context
  • ✓ /horse-racing/odds — every game with spread + total + tip-off in one scan
  • ✓ /best-bets — cross-sport edge leaderboard (live for MLB + NBA today)
  • ✓ /sportsbooks — every state's legal sportsbook list, geo-fenced CTAs to DraftKings + FanDuel + BetMGM + Caesars + ESPN BET
  • ✓ /methodology — full breakdown of how the rating engine works on the leagues we've already shipped

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

65%Last 7 · 60-33
61%Last 30 · 297-187
Receipts →
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Valdez (DET): 6.0 IP · 6 K against HOU
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Valdez (DET): 6.0 IP · 6 K against HOU
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5