Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at NY?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

27-11

PregameThu, 8:00 PM EDTPrime Video

23-15

ATS/NY -2.5O/U/162.5ML/NY-142

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

GS +10.5 vs NY +5.2 margin

GS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+4.0 days

NY 5 rest vs GS 1

NY has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+98.9

NY Elo vs GS Elo

GS owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing NY uphill early today again.

WNBAThu, Aug 278/27 - 8:00 PM EDTSeriesGS leads series 2-0VegasNY -2.5

Preview · WNBA

olden State Valkyries visit New York Liberty Thursday at 8/27 - 8:00 PM EDT. GS is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8. NY is 4-2 in their last 6.

Vegas opened NY as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 162.5. NY's moneyline implies a 59% break-even, GS the inverse.

For bettors: the NY side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 162.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

GS leads series 2-0

May 22

GS87@

NY70

Jun 28

NY67@

GS76

Aug 28

GS@

NYtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

162.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+12045%

NY-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -2.5↗SpreadBet NY -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

+1.0 since open

Total

162.5

0.0 since open

Scouting report

GS @ NY

8/27 - 8:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

GSStandard

1 day

last game Aug 26

NYUnknown

—

Model edge vs market

Pass · split signal

Spread

Market

NY -2.5

Model

GS -9.6

Edge

split

Total

Market

162.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

NY -142

Model

Edge

fading market

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

GSmetricNY

27-11

Record

23-15

Conf rank

+6.6

Pt diff

+3.1

Streak

8-2

Last 10

7-3

77.8

Power score

68.2

Power rank

58.8

Sched ahead

56.0

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

NY -2.5·O/U 162.5·GS +120/NY -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

NY vs GS.

NY is 7-3 recently; GS is 8-2.

45.4%

model · NY win prob

Recent form

NY7–3+5.2
GS8–2+10.5

Situational

NY5d rest
GS1d restB2B
+4.0d differential

NY has 4 more rest days. NY has 0 straight road games; GS has 3.

Model angle

+11.0ppon GS

GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Line steam-1.5pp
▼Rest advantage-1.2pp

Players to watch

Breanna StewartNY
19.5points · ±6.2
Breanna Stewart · 19.5 pts · last-10 19.1 vs season 20.
Sabrina IonescuNY
16.7points · ±6.6
Sabrina Ionescu · 16.7 pts · last-10 17.6 vs season 15.4.
Jonquel JonesNY
14.4points · ±5.5
Jonquel Jones · 14.4 pts · last-10 14.5 vs season 14.4.

Head-to-head · 0-3 · last 3

NY is 0-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-09-03NY @ GS58–66
2026-05-21GS @ NY87–70
2026-06-28NY @ GS67–76

Line move

open -122→-142toward NY

The market has moved 3.7pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
45.9%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
48.4%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
50.9%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like GS.

GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+11.0

pp edge · GS

-3.74

CLV pp · steam

4.7u · large

on GS

55.7%

±7.1pp band

4.7u large — +10.2pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+12.0pp

+1.0pp post-cal

Kelly

18.8%

4.7% sized

Decimal

2.20

+10.2pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 11.0pp · GS over NY

▲
Model confidence90% conf
GS clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Line steam81% conf
The market moved 3.7pp away from GS since open.
-1.5pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
NY has the rest edge entering this game.
-1.2pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
GS is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
GS has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Venue split68% conf
NY's venue form trims GS's edge by 7.1pp.
-0.4pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at NY?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.0pp

best edge · GS · DraftKings

★ best

+120DraftKings

edge +11.0pp · implied 43.7%

no live price

Book	GS	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+120★	-142	+11.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
19.5± 6.2high
Sabrina IonescuNY
16.7± 6.6high
Jonquel JonesNY
14.4± 5.5high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.3± 4.8high
Breanna StewartNY
7.7± 2.4high
Kiah StokesGS
6.1± 2.2high

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
5.8± 2.3high
Sabrina IonescuNY
5.4± 3.0high
Breanna StewartNY
3.5± 2.0high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.6± 1.6high
Ashten PrechtelGS
1.2± 1.8low
Breanna StewartNY
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Veronica BurtonGS
1.8± 1.6high
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.6± 1.2high
Tiffany HayesGS
1.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Golden State ValkyriesNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

MysticsMercury8/27 - 10:00 PM EDT

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Golden State Valkyries at New York Liberty

NY vs GS.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like GS.

Where to bet this game.

NY vs GS.