Golden State Valkyries at New York Liberty
GS
10-7
NY
11-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit New York Liberty Thursday at 8/27 - 8:00 PM EDT. GS is 5-4 in their last 9. NY is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
NY
Home
41
FG %
46
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
GS87@NY70NY@GSupcomingGS@NYtodayScouting report
GS @ NY
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
NY -18.6
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
NY
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
10-7
Record
11-6
#4
Conf rank
#2
+4.4
Pt diff
+5.6
L2
Streak
L2
5-5
Last 10
8-2
57.2
Power score
75.8
#7
Power rank
#4
78.1
Sched ahead
68.4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY18.2± 7.6medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS16.6± 8.7medium
- Jonquel JonesNY14.5± 5.7medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.5± 3.9medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.8± 2.3medium
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.6± 3.1medium
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.1± 3.0medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.1± 1.7medium
- Breanna StewartNY3.1± 1.7medium
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.6± 1.3medium
- Kiah StokesGS1.3± 1.3medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.2± 2.5medium
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 0.6medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Cecilia ZandalasiniGS1.0± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
NY
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶46.2%
35.1%
3PT %
33.5
34.8%
83.8
PPG
85.9
▶89.1
18.4
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
10.2
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.6