Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1POR

CON

0-5

8283

POR

2-2

WNBAMon, May 18FinalSeriesPOR wins series 2-1VegasPOR -3.5

CON · top performer

Brittney Griner

C · #42

12.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Bridget Carleton

F · #6

16.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 22.6

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	17	12	5-6	—	2-3	-10	2	0
D. MillerF · #1	13	3	1-2	1-2	—	+3	0	1
B. GrinerC · #42	27	16	6-12	—	4-7	+9	5	4
K. BurkeG · #25	21	0	0-5	0-3	—	-1	6	3
H. Van LithG · #2	25	12	5-9	1-3	1-2	+7	1	3
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	34	12	5-10	1-4	1-2	+1	12	4
R. BeersF · #21	5	4	2-2	—	—	-2	2	0
N. AnglomaF · #33	3	1	—	—	1-2	-2	0	0
S. RiversG · #22	28	9	4-8	0-3	1-2	0	3	6
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	23	10	3-7	3-4	1-2	-4	1	2
G. KneepkensG · #5	4	3	1-2	1-1	—	-6	0	0
Team		82	32-63	7-20	11-20		32	23
DNP: A. Jackson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	33	18	5-12	2-7	6-6	+9	5	3
E. EngstlerF · #21	28	15	4-7	2-3	5-5	+6	3	2
N. PuochF · #13	21	10	4-8	0-2	2-2	-7	4	0
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	25	2	1-5	0-2	—	+19	2	4
S. SuttonG · #1	25	12	4-10	1-2	3-4	+10	1	5
Bench
GustafsonC · #17	8	3	1-2	0-1	1-1	-7	2	1
S. WilliamsC · #25	12	3	1-1	—	1-4	-14	5	0
H. WinterburnG · #77	15	2	1-4	0-2	—	-8	1	4
H. JonesG · #30	12	0	—	—	—	-8	0	1
S. BarkerG · #3	21	18	7-13	2-3	2-4	+5	4	3
Team		83	28-62	7-22	20-26		27	23
DNP: F. Buhner

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

POR

Home

32-63

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-62

FG %

7-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-22

11-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR wins series 2-1

May 19

CON82@

POR83today

May 28

CON61@

POR71

Jul 14

POR87@

CON90

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -3.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

CON+14241%

POR-17063%

10· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -3.5↗SpreadBet POR -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+1.0 since open

Total

174.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat CON 83-82. B. Carleton led with 18 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. Sug Sutton's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

43 PTS · 14 REB · 11 AST

GS 33

Bench(6)

39 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 30

PORstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 1:06 · 75-76

+24pp→ 66% WP

Brittney Griner · lost ball turnover (Sarah Ashlee Barker steals)

CON4th Quarter · 31.4 · 79-79

+22pp→ 44% WP

Hailey Van Lith · makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Saniya Rivers assists)

POR4th Quarter · 22.6 · 79-81

+25pp→ 71% WP

Sug Sutton · makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	24	18	22	18	82
POR	25	13	26	19	83

Period scoring

CON won 1 · POR won 3

Edwards 6

Puoch 7

Lith 7

Engstler 4

Griner 8

Carleton 12

Leger-Walker 6

Barker 8

CON

POR

Shooting comparison

CON

POR

51%

32-63

45%

28-62

35%

7-20

3PT

32%

7-22

55%

11-20

77%

20-26

Play-by-play · 430 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 82·POR 83
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 82·POR 83
+4pp
Q4·1.0
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 82·POR 83
−1pp
Q4·1.0
Aneesah Morrow misses 37-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CON 82·POR 83
+5pp
Q4·1.9
Brittney Griner enters the game for Aaliyah Edwards
·
CON 82·POR 83
Q4·1.9
Aaliyah Edwards enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
CON 82·POR 83
Q4·1.9
Nyadiew Puoch enters the game for Sug Sutton
·
CON 82·POR 83
Q4·1.9
Emily Engstler offensive foul turnover
CON 82·POR 83
Q4·1.9
Emily Engstler offensive charge
CON 82·POR 83
−3pp
Q4·1.9
Sug Sutton enters the game for Nyadiew Puoch
·
CON 82·POR 83
Q4·1.9
Fire Full timeout
CON 82·POR 83
+2pp
Q4·2.8
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brittney Griner assists)
·
CON 82·POR 83
−2pp
Q4·9.7
Sun timeout
CON 79·POR 83
Q4·9.7
Bridget Carleton makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 79·POR 83
−3pp
Q4·9.7
Bridget Carleton makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 79·POR 82
+0.9pp
Q4·9.7
Charlisse Leger-Walker personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CON 79·POR 81
+8pp
Q4·9.7
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
CON 79·POR 81
+4pp
Q4·12.3
Saniya Rivers misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CON 79·POR 81
+8pp
Q4·13.6
Sun offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 79·POR 81
−7pp
Q4·16.0
Brittney Griner misses 13-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 79·POR 81
+11pp
Q4·22.6
Brittney Griner enters the game for Aaliyah Edwards
·
CON 79·POR 81
Q4·22.6
Nyadiew Puoch enters the game for Sug Sutton
·
CON 79·POR 81
Q4·22.6
Sun Full timeout
CON 79·POR 81
Q4·22.6
Sug Sutton makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 79·POR 81
+25pp
Q4·31.3
Aaliyah Edwards enters the game for Brittney GrinerBIG MOMENT
·
CON 79·POR 79
−10pp
Q4·31.3
Fire timeout
CON 79·POR 79
Q4·31.4
Hailey Van Lith makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Saniya Rivers assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 79·POR 79
−22pp
Q4·43.7
Bridget Carleton jump ball violationBIG MOMENT
CON 77·POR 79
+12pp
Q4·43.9
Sun Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CON 77·POR 79
−12pp
Q4·44.7
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 77·POR 79

Betting line

POR -3.5·O/U 174.5·CON +142/POR -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ortland Fire held off Connecticut Sun, 83–82. It came down to the final possession.

CON +3.5 cashed (POR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 174.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

POR

eFG%

shooting

56.3%

50.8%

TOV%

ball control

19.1%

17.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

33.3%

24.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

17.5%

32.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowTOR · F
DRB%.37599+
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Nyadiew PuochPOR · F
ORB%.07482
Emily EngstlerPOR · F
DRB%.20780
Kennedy BurkeCON · G
ORB%.05871

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
76.1%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
78.9%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
77.6%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.27

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-180

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.2pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

CON

no live price

POR

★ best

-170DraftKings

edge +13.2pp · implied 60.4%

Book	CON	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	+142	-170★	+13.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high
Brittney GrinerCON
14.5± 7.5medium
Megan DiLeoPOR
14.2± 4.6high

Rebounds

Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.6± 3.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high
Brittney GrinerCON
5.7± 3.7medium

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.0± 2.4high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Mystics69Wings92Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop