Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at DAL?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+23DAL

WSH

2-2

6992

DAL

2-2

WNBAMon, May 18FinalSeriesDAL leads series 1-0VegasDAL -4.5

WSH · top performer

Lauren Betts

C · #51

8.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Jessica Shepard

F · #32

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:31

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. IriafenF · #44	26	9	2-6	1-1	4-6	-12	10	2
S. AustinC · #0	26	12	5-10	—	2-2	-15	4	1
S. CitronG · #22	26	7	3-6	1-2	—	-4	1	1
C. McMahonG · #23	21	7	2-3	1-2	2-2	-23	1	1
G. AmooreG · #8	24	3	1-6	1-4	—	-18	1	3
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	13	2	1-2	—	—	-12	3	1
L. BettsC · #51	15	11	5-7	—	1-1	-7	3	0
R. HarmonG · #3	5	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-2	1	2
L. OlsenG · #33	10	8	3-3	—	2-2	+1	0	2
C. ProsperG · #18	25	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	-14	0	3
A. WilsonG · #4	8	2	—	—	2-3	-9	0	0
Team		69	24-49	5-12	16-20		24	16

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	27	12	4-7	—	4-5	+18	16	6
A. SmithF · #8	7	3	1-3	1-1	—	-1	1	1
O. SimsG · #1	16	0	0-3	0-1	—	+5	0	4
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	33	16	4-10	2-5	6-6	+21	0	3
P. BueckersG · #5	33	18	7-12	4-5	—	+21	3	7
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	0	1	0
M. SiegristF · #20	20	10	4-9	2-4	—	+19	0	2
A. KuierF · #34	20	9	4-6	0-2	1-1	+11	3	4
L. YueruC · #28	5	1	0-3	0-1	1-2	-1	3	0
A. FuddG · #35	24	12	6-9	0-1	—	+20	2	3
A. JamesG · #10	7	8	2-6	1-2	3-3	+2	2	0
Team		92	33-70	11-24	15-17		31	30
DNP: J. Quinerly

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

24-49

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-70

FG %

5-12

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-24

16-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 1-0

May 19

WSH69@

DAL92today

Jul 31

DAL@

WSHupcoming

Aug 5

DAL@

WSHupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+15439%

DAL-18565%

12· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -4.5↗SpreadBet DAL -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

-1.0 since open

Total

170.5

-3.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat WSH 92-69. J. Shepard led with 12 PTS, 16 REB, 6 AST. DAL outscored the other side 28-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

38 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 15

Bench(6)

31 PTS · 7 REB · 8 AST

GS 26

DALstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

49 PTS · 20 REB · 21 AST

GS 46

Bench(6)

43 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST

GS 38

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	9	20	17	23	69
DAL	19	19	28	26	92

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · DAL won 3

Austin 4

Ogunbowale 7

Austin 6

Siegrist 5

Iriafen 5

Ogunbowale 9

McMahon 7

James 13

WSH

DAL

Shooting comparison

WSH

DAL

49%

24-49

47%

33-70

42%

5-12

3PT

46%

11-24

80%

16-20

88%

15-17

Play-by-play · 365 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 69·DAL 92
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 69·DAL 92
Q4·20.2
Aziaha James defensive rebound
WSH 69·DAL 92
Q4·23.6
Rori Harmon misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 69·DAL 92
Q4·33.1
Aziaha James makes 23-foot three point jumper (Odyssey Sims assists)
·
WSH 69·DAL 92
Q4·48.0
Lucy Olsen makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot
WSH 69·DAL 89
Q4·57.1
Aziaha James personal foul
WSH 67·DAL 89
Q4·1:03
Odyssey Sims offensive foul turnover
WSH 67·DAL 89
Q4·1:03
Odyssey Sims offensive charge
WSH 67·DAL 89
Q4·1:13
Lauren Betts makes layup (Cassandre Prosper assists)
·
WSH 67·DAL 89
Q4·1:28
Aziaha James makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 65·DAL 89
Q4·1:28
Aziaha James makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 65·DAL 88
Q4·1:28
Lauren Betts shooting foul
WSH 65·DAL 87
Q4·1:38
Rori Harmon personal foul
WSH 65·DAL 87
Q4·1:40
Awak Kuier defensive rebound
WSH 65·DAL 87
Q4·1:43
Rori Harmon misses 8-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 65·DAL 87
Q4·2:06
Aziaha James makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 65·DAL 87
Q4·2:06
Rori Harmon shooting foul
WSH 65·DAL 86
Q4·2:06
Aziaha James makes 10-foot fade away jump shot (Awak Kuier assists)
·
WSH 65·DAL 86
Q4·2:18
Angela Dugalic makes 3-foot layup (Rori Harmon assists)
·
WSH 65·DAL 84
Q4·2:27
Lauren Betts defensive rebound
WSH 63·DAL 84
Q4·2:29
Aziaha James misses driving floating jump shot
WSH 63·DAL 84
Q4·2:43
Cassandre Prosper makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 63·DAL 84
Q4·2:43
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Azzi Fudd
·
WSH 62·DAL 84
Q4·2:43
Aziaha James enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
WSH 62·DAL 84
Q4·2:43
Maddy Siegrist enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
WSH 62·DAL 84
Q4·2:43
Alysha Clark enters the game for Paige Bueckers
·
WSH 62·DAL 84
Q4·2:43
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 62·DAL 84
Q4·2:43
Cassandre Prosper misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 62·DAL 84
Q4·2:43
Paige Bueckers shooting foul
WSH 62·DAL 84

Betting line

DAL -4.5·O/U 170.5·WSH +154/DAL -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings held off Washington Mystics, 92–69. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DAL -4.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 170.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

DAL

eFG%

shooting

54.1%

55.0%

TOV%

ball control

23.7%

9.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

9.1%

33.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

32.7%

21.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Sonia CitronWSH · G
TS%.63984

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
54.4%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
55.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
58.6%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.43

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+190

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at DAL?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.2pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+154DraftKings

edge +12.2pp · implied 37.8%

DAL

no live price

Book	WSH	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+154★	-185	+12.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
21.6± 6.0high
Shakira AustinWSH
16.1± 6.8high
Sonia CitronWSH
15.9± 9.4high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.2± 4.3high
Shakira AustinWSH
10.2± 3.4high
Kiki IriafenWSH
9.0± 3.7high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.3± 3.2high
Sonia CitronWSH
3.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.6± 1.3high
Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.5high
Lauren BettsWSH
0.8± 1.2high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
Haley JonesDAL
1.0± 1.6low
Sonia CitronWSH
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington MysticsDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Sun82Fire83Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop