NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CAR

VGK

39-26-17

CAR

53-22-7

NHLThu, Jun 11FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -155

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–2.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Andrei Svechnikov

RW · #37

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-1	2	6	0	0	12:03
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	17:53
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	15:05
J. EichelC · #9	0	2	1	1	2	4	2	23:31
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	13:26
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	-1	3	4	0	0	14:32
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	8:43
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:54
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	21:38
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:43
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:39
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-1	1	4	0	4	21:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	21:52
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	11:26
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:23
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	12:36
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	20:29
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	-1	2	0	3	0	23:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	24	4	20	.833	57:07

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:01
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:19
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	9:48
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	3	0	0	1	0	4	17:47
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	14:55
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	9:19
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	0	4	3	1	0	19:51
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	14:29
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:13
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	0	3	5	1	0	17:22
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:46
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	2	0	1	3	2	0	0	16:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	21:04
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	15:14
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	21:00
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:01
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	21:55
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	20:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	25	2	23	.920	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

CAR leads series 3-2

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4

Jun 7

CAR4@

VGK5

Jun 10

CAR5@

VGK3

Jun 12

VGK2@

CAR4today

Jun 15

CAR3@

VGK0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+13043%

CAR-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

VGK

P. Dorofeyev

Top skater

2 G · 3 SOG

C. Hart

Goaltender

20 SV · 4 GA · .833

CAR

A. Svechnikov

Top skater

2 G · 3 SOG

B. Bussi

Goaltender

23 SV · 2 GA · .920

How it ended

CAR beat VGK 4-2. A. Svechnikov led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	0	1	2
CAR	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · CAR won 1

VGK

CAR

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·19:51
Noah Hanifin Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·19:20
Seth Jarvis Backhand Wide Right
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:55
Takeaway by K'Andre Miller
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:51
Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:40
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:40
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:38
Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:36
Tomas Hertl Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:28
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Jordan Staal
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:21
Mark Stone Tip-In Wide Left
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:55
Shea Theodore Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:47
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:47
Timeout - Visitor
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:47
Nikolaj Ehlers Delaying Game - Puck over glass
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:16
Takeaway by Sean Walker
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:05
Andrei Svechnikov hit Mark Stone
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:51
Brett Howden faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:51
Puck in Netting
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:37
Giveaway by Noah Hanifin
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:17
Jackson Blake Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:04
Rasmus Andersson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:03
Giveaway by Jackson Blake
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:59
Rasmus Andersson Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:50
Noah Hanifin Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:46
Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:25
Seth Jarvis hit Brayden McNabb
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:18
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:18
Puck in Crowd
VGK 2·CAR 4

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +130/CAR -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI82.899+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
DIST MI84.899+
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
CORSI%6699+
Shayne GostisbehereCAR · D
CORSI%6599+
Tomas HertlVGK · C
xGF%6599

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jordan Staal · CAR17:240.5959.5%53.4%17:24 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 59.5% CF · 53.4% xGF
Mark Stone · VGK21:480.5657.4%71.6%21:48 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 57.4% CF · 71.6% xGF
Brett Howden · VGK15:000.5566.7%68.9%15:00 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 66.7% CF · 68.9% xGF
Tomas Hertl · VGK13:300.4675.6%83.9%13:30 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 75.6% CF · 83.9% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · VGK18:180.4576.7%62.8%18:18 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 76.7% CF · 62.8% xGF
Ivan Barbashev · VGK11:540.3966.7%86.6%11:54 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 66.7% CF · 86.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR23–2.920+0.1123–2 · .920 SV% · +0.11 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK20–4.833-2.6520–4 · .833 SV% · -2.65 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.4%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
62.7%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.7%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.7%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

VGK

no live price

CAR

no live price

Book	VGK	CAR	Best edge
DraftKings	+130	-155	+0.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.