Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at CAR?

The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CAR

VGK

39-26-17

CAR

53-22-7

NHLThu, Jun 11FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -155

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Andrei Svechnikov

RW · #37

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-1	2	6	0	0	12:03
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	17:53
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	15:05
J. EichelC · #9	0	2	1	1	2	4	2	23:31
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	13:26
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	-1	3	4	0	0	14:32
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	8:43
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:54
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	21:38
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:43
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:39
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-1	1	4	0	4	21:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	21:52
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	11:26
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:23
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	12:36
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	20:29
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	-1	2	0	3	0	23:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	24	4	20	.833	57:07

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:01
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:19
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	9:48
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	3	0	0	1	0	4	17:47
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	14:55
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	9:19
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	0	4	3	1	0	19:51
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	14:29
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:13
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	0	3	5	1	0	17:22
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:46
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	2	0	1	3	2	0	0	16:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	21:04
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	15:14
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	21:00
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:01
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	21:55
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	20:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	25	2	23	.920	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR leads series 3-2

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4

Jun 7

CAR4@

VGK5

Jun 10

CAR5@

VGK3

Jun 12

VGK2@

CAR4today

Jun 15

CAR3@

VGK0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+13043%

CAR-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat VGK 4-2. A. Svechnikov led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	0	1	2
CAR	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · CAR won 1

VGK

CAR

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·19:51
Noah Hanifin Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·19:20
Seth Jarvis Backhand Wide Right
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:55
Takeaway by K'Andre Miller
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:51
Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:40
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:40
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:38
Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:36
Tomas Hertl Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:28
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Jordan Staal
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:21
Mark Stone Tip-In Wide Left
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:55
Shea Theodore Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:47
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:47
Timeout - Visitor
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:47
Nikolaj Ehlers Delaying Game - Puck over glass
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:16
Takeaway by Sean Walker
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:05
Andrei Svechnikov hit Mark Stone
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:51
Brett Howden faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:51
Puck in Netting
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:37
Giveaway by Noah Hanifin
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:17
Jackson Blake Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:04
Rasmus Andersson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:03
Giveaway by Jackson Blake
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:59
Rasmus Andersson Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:50
Noah Hanifin Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:46
Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:25
Seth Jarvis hit Brayden McNabb
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:18
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:18
Puck in Crowd
VGK 2·CAR 4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +130/CAR -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–2.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jordan Staal · CAR17:240.6959.5%67.6%17:24 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 59.5% CF · 67.6% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR18:180.6176.7%66.2%18:18 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 76.7% CF · 66.2% xGF
Brett Howden · VGK15:000.5866.7%74.3%15:00 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 66.7% CF · 74.3% xGF
Mark Stone · VGK21:480.5357.4%65.2%21:48 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 57.4% CF · 65.2% xGF
Rasmus Andersson · VGK22:180.5051.0%48.8%22:18 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 51.0% CF · 48.8% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR16:180.4872.4%63.5%16:18 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 72.4% CF · 63.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR23–2.920+1.1723–2 · .920 SV% · +1.17 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK20–4.833-1.6820–4 · .833 SV% · -1.68 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.7%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
62.7%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.7%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.7%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at CAR?: The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.4pp

best edge · CAR · DraftKings

VGK

no live price

CAR

★ best

-155DraftKings

edge +4.4pp · implied 58.3%

Book	VGK	CAR	Best edge
DraftKings	+130	-155★	+4.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.