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FINAL+5CAR
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

16
CAR

CAR

53-22-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, May 29FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -265

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Montreal Canadiens, 6–1.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Taylor Hall

Taylor Hall

LW · #71

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
6
MTL48-24-10CAR53-22-7
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

53-22-7

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

10

Playoff series

CAR wins series 4-1

May 22MTLMTL6@CARCAR2
May 23MTLMTL2@CARCAR3
May 26CARCAR3@MTLMTL2
May 28CARCAR4@MTLMTL0
May 30MTLMTL1@CARCAR6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL+21532%
CARCAR-26573%

13· 12h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat MTL 6-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL0011
CAR3216

Period scoring

MTL won 0 · CAR won 2

0
3

1

0
2

2

1
1

3

MTL
CAR

Play-by-play · 269 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  3. 3rd·18:34

    Giveaway by Josh Anderson

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  4. 3rd·17:27

    Giveaway by Shayne Gostisbehere

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  5. 3rd·17:23

    William Carrier faceoff won against Jake Evans

    · ·

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  6. 3rd·17:23

    Too many men/ice served by Joseph Veleno

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  7. 3rd·17:15

    Josh Anderson Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  8. 3rd·16:51

    Zachary Bolduc hit Shayne Gostisbehere

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  9. 3rd·16:41

    Mark Jankowski Deflected saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  10. 3rd·16:33

    Jayden Struble hit Eric Robinson

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  11. 3rd·16:19

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  12. 3rd·16:19

    Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (3), Andrei Svechnikov (4)

    · ·

    MTL 1·CAR 6

  13. 3rd·15:34

    Jordan Martinook Snap Shot Hit Right Post

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  14. 3rd·15:31

    Juraj Slafkovský Backhand saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  15. 3rd·15:30

    Juraj Slafkovský Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  16. 3rd·15:29

    Giveaway by Jaccob Slavin

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  17. 3rd·15:22

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  18. 3rd·15:22

    Puck in Crowd

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  19. 3rd·14:57

    Ivan Demidov Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  20. 3rd·14:08

    Jalen Chatfield hit Zachary Bolduc

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  21. 3rd·14:01

    Jake Evans shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  22. 3rd·13:54

    Noah Dobson Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  23. 3rd·13:46

    Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  24. 3rd·13:46

    Icing

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  25. 3rd·13:35

    Takeaway by Jaccob Slavin

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  26. 3rd·13:21

    Alex Newhook faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  27. 3rd·13:21

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  28. 3rd·13:20

    Alex Newhook Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  29. 3rd·12:50

    Giveaway by Ivan Demidov

    MTL 1·CAR 5

  30. 3rd·12:26

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    MTL 1·CAR 5

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

24

Shots

30

20.0

PCT

20.0

10

PIM

10

28

Faceoffs W

25

3

Blocks

12

10

Giveaways

18

3

Takeaways

7

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL +215/CAR -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI68.399+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7599
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI53.599
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI59.898
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.9%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.14

CLV pp

Open price

+185

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

33.6%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Market faded the model

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR