Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at CAR?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CAR

MTL

48-24-10

CAR

53-22-7

NHLFri, May 29FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -265

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Logan Stankoven

C · #22

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	-2	3	3	0	0	13:42
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:28
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	-2	3	0	0	0	18:19
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:23
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	15:46
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:19
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:28
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:43
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	18:05
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	-2	3	0	1	2	21:04
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:04
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	6:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	19:13
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	20:37
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	16:39
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	-1	2	0	0	2	21:59
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	21:41
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	29	5	24	.828	58:22

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	18:44
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	15:53
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	10:12
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	16:20
T. HallLW · #71	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	15:26
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	12:28
S. JarvisC · #24	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	18:04
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	13:33
E. RobinsonLW · #50	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:21
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	15:05
L. StankovenC · #22	1	2	2	4	5	0	0	16:00
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	1	1	1	0	0	4	14:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	1	3	4	0	21:26
S. GostisbehereD · #4	1	0	3	1	0	0	2	16:53
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	21:55
A. NikishinD · #21	0	1	3	1	0	0	2	12:14
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	21:00
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	19:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	24	1	23	.958	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR wins series 4-1

May 22

MTL6@

CAR2

May 23

MTL2@

CAR3

May 26

CAR3@

MTL2

May 28

CAR4@

MTL0

May 30

MTL1@

CAR6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+21532%

CAR-26573%

13· 12h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat MTL 6-1. L. Stankoven led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	0	0	1	1
CAR	3	2	1	6

Period scoring

MTL won 0 · CAR won 2

MTL

CAR

Play-by-play · 269 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·18:34
Giveaway by Josh Anderson
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·17:27
Giveaway by Shayne Gostisbehere
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·17:23
William Carrier faceoff won against Jake Evans
· ·
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·17:23
Too many men/ice served by Joseph Veleno
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·17:15
Josh Anderson Backhand Wide Right
·
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·16:51
Zachary Bolduc hit Shayne Gostisbehere
·
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·16:41
Mark Jankowski Deflected saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·16:33
Jayden Struble hit Eric Robinson
·
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·16:19
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·16:19
Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (3), Andrei Svechnikov (4)
· ·
MTL 1·CAR 6
3rd·15:34
Jordan Martinook Snap Shot Hit Right Post
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·15:31
Juraj Slafkovský Backhand saved by Frederik Andersen
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·15:30
Juraj Slafkovský Tip-In Wide Right
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·15:29
Giveaway by Jaccob Slavin
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·15:22
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·15:22
Puck in Crowd
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·14:57
Ivan Demidov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·14:08
Jalen Chatfield hit Zachary Bolduc
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·14:01
Jake Evans shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:54
Noah Dobson Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:46
Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:46
Icing
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:35
Takeaway by Jaccob Slavin
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:21
Alex Newhook faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:21
Goalie Stopped
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:20
Alex Newhook Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·12:50
Giveaway by Ivan Demidov
MTL 1·CAR 5
3rd·12:26
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
MTL 1·CAR 5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL +215/CAR -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Montreal Canadiens, 6–1.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Logan Stankoven · CAR16:060.7260.7%70.9%16:06 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 60.7% CF · 70.9% xGF
Jordan Martinook · CAR13:420.6641.7%55.0%13:42 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 41.7% CF · 55.0% xGF
Nick Suzuki · MTL21:120.5452.6%43.7%21:12 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 52.6% CF · 43.7% xGF
Ivan Demidov · MTL18:240.4754.8%48.9%18:24 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 54.8% CF · 48.9% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR15:540.4759.3%72.4%15:54 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 59.3% CF · 72.4% xGF
Josh Anderson · MTL14:000.4642.9%41.2%14:00 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 42.9% CF · 41.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR23–1.958+1.5723–1 · .958 SV% · +1.57 GSAx
Jakub Dobes · MTL24–5.828-1.0124–5 · .828 SV% · -1.01 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.8%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
60.8%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.8%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.8%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.14

CLV pp

Open price

+185

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

33.6%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at CAR?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.7pp

best edge · MTL · DraftKings

MTL

★ best

+205DraftKings

edge +7.7pp · implied 31.5%

CAR

no live price

Book	MTL	CAR	Best edge
DraftKings	+205★	-250	+7.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.