Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CAR

CAR

53-22-7

MTL

48-24-10

NHLWed, May 27FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -148

CAR · top performer

Logan Stankoven

C · #22

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	20:20
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	16:46
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	1	5	3	0	0	11:27
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	2	1	1	1	2	0	17:05
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	15:33
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	2	0	2	10	10:41
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	17:34
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	15:21
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	2	0	10	10:43
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	16:21
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	1	7	1	0	0	14:16
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	1	6	4	0	0	17:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	1	1	2	0	2	2	18:44
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	2	0	1	1	3	0	16:08
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	2	2	1	4	0	24:41
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	12:41
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:41
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	3	2	4	0	0	20:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	18	0	18	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	-1	2	0	3	4	11:09
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	2	1	1	2	11:27
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	19:14
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	8:45
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	14:16
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:52
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	18:29
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:17
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	17:18
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	22:59
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	6:30
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	6:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	23:22
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-1	2	4	2	0	20:05
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	0	3	3	10	17:27
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	21:04
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	23:05
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	-2	0	3	2	10	11:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	43	3	40	.930	59:01

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

16.7

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR leads series 3-1

May 22

MTL6@

CAR2

May 23

MTL2@

CAR3

May 26

CAR3@

MTL2

May 28

CAR4@

MTL0today

May 30

MTL1@

CAR6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-14860%

MTL+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat MTL 4-0. L. Stankoven led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	3	0	1	4
MTL	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · MTL won 0

CAR

MTL

Play-by-play · 386 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:58
Mike Matheson Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:43
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:43
Goalie Stopped
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:43
Eric Robinson Misconduct
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:43
Jayden Struble Misconduct
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:43
Mark Jankowski Misconduct
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:43
Kaiden Guhle Misconduct
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:41
William Carrier Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
· ·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:40
Sean Walker shot blocked by Jayden Struble
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:31
Josh Anderson Backhand saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:20
Alexandre Texier hit Jackson Blake
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:10
Mike Matheson hit Taylor Hall
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·19:00
Mike Matheson shot blocked by Joseph Veleno
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·18:53
Shayne Gostisbehere hit Kirby Dach
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·18:51
Joseph Veleno hit Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·18:17
Kirby Dach hit Eric Robinson
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·18:06
Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·18:06
Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (4)
·
CAR 4·MTL 0
3rd·17:51
Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot Off Crossbar
CAR 3·MTL 0
3rd·17:43
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Jordan Martinook
·
CAR 3·MTL 0
3rd·17:07
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·MTL 0
3rd·17:07
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·MTL 0
3rd·17:05
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·MTL 0
3rd·16:30
Sebastian Aho Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 3·MTL 0
3rd·16:26
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 3·MTL 0
3rd·16:19
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 3·MTL 0
3rd·15:53
Seth Jarvis Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·MTL 0
3rd·15:43
Jake Evans faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·MTL 0

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -148/MTL +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 4–0.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Logan Stankoven · CAR14:240.9176.2%84.5%14:24 TOI · 0.91 iXG · 76.2% CF · 84.5% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR17:120.8677.3%84.4%17:12 TOI · 0.86 iXG · 77.3% CF · 84.4% xGF
William Carrier · CAR13:060.6165.8%81.8%13:06 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 65.8% CF · 81.8% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR17:240.4459.4%68.9%17:24 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 59.4% CF · 68.9% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR15:420.4383.7%94.2%15:42 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 83.7% CF · 94.2% xGF
Nikolaj Ehlers · CAR17:240.4272.7%90.4%17:24 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 72.7% CF · 90.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL40–3.930+2.3140–3 · .930 SV% · +2.31 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR18–01.000+1.4018–0 · 1.000 SV% · +1.40 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
50.6%
P(MTL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.6%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.6%
P(MTL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.9pp

best edge · MTL · DraftKings

CAR

no live price

MTL

★ best

+130DraftKings

edge +8.9pp · implied 41.7%

Book	CAR	MTL	Best edge
DraftKings	-155	+130★	+8.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.