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FINAL+4CAR
CAR

CAR

53-22-7

40
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, May 27FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -148

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 4–0.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Nikolaj Ehlers

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Josh Anderson

Josh Anderson

RW · #17

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
0
CAR53-22-7MTL48-24-10
CAR

CAR

53-22-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

24

PIM

32

Playoff series

CAR leads series 3-1

May 22MTLMTL6@CARCAR2
May 23MTLMTL2@CARCAR3
May 26CARCAR3@MTLMTL2
May 28CARCAR4@MTLMTL0today
May 30MTLMTL1@CARCAR6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-14860%
MTLMTL+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat MTL 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CAR3014
MTL0000

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · MTL won 0

3
0

1

0
0

2

1
0

3

CAR
MTL

Play-by-play · 386 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Mike Matheson Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  4. 3rd·19:43

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  5. 3rd·19:43

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  6. 3rd·19:43

    Eric Robinson Misconduct

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  7. 3rd·19:43

    Jayden Struble Misconduct

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  8. 3rd·19:43

    Mark Jankowski Misconduct

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  9. 3rd·19:43

    Kaiden Guhle Misconduct

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  10. 3rd·19:41

    William Carrier Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes

    · ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  11. 3rd·19:40

    Sean Walker shot blocked by Jayden Struble

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  12. 3rd·19:31

    Josh Anderson Backhand saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  13. 3rd·19:20

    Alexandre Texier hit Jackson Blake

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  14. 3rd·19:10

    Mike Matheson hit Taylor Hall

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  15. 3rd·19:00

    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Joseph Veleno

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  16. 3rd·18:53

    Shayne Gostisbehere hit Kirby Dach

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  17. 3rd·18:51

    Joseph Veleno hit Logan Stankoven

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  18. 3rd·18:17

    Kirby Dach hit Eric Robinson

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  19. 3rd·18:06

    Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  20. 3rd·18:06

    Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (4)

    ·

    CAR 4·MTL 0

  21. 3rd·17:51

    Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot Off Crossbar

    CAR 3·MTL 0

  22. 3rd·17:43

    Lane Hutson shot blocked by Jordan Martinook

    ·

    CAR 3·MTL 0

  23. 3rd·17:07

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·MTL 0

  24. 3rd·17:07

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 3·MTL 0

  25. 3rd·17:05

    Nick Suzuki Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 3·MTL 0

  26. 3rd·16:30

    Sebastian Aho Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    CAR 3·MTL 0

  27. 3rd·16:26

    Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    CAR 3·MTL 0

  28. 3rd·16:19

    Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    CAR 3·MTL 0

  29. 3rd·15:53

    Seth Jarvis Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·MTL 0

  30. 3rd·15:43

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·MTL 0

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

44

Shots

18

16.7

PCT

0.0

24

PIM

32

31

Faceoffs W

36

18

Blocks

23

15

Giveaways

18

7

Takeaways

3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -148/MTL +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
    DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR