Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

CAR

53-22-7

MTL

48-24-10

NHLMon, May 25FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -155

CAR · top performer

Taylor Hall

LW · #71

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Lane Hutson

D · #48

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	21:49
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	22:25
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	1	0	8	0	0	11:37
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	22:48
T. HallLW · #71	1	0	1	7	2	2	0	20:06
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	13:17
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	20:56
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	0	5	0	2	17:33
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	12:52
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-1	1	6	0	0	18:36
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	20:03
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	1	5	3	0	0	21:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	22:54
S. GostisbehereD · #4	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:56
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	1	5	2	2	0	30:07
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:45
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	3	1	4	0	24:38
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	1	3	3	4	2	27:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	13	2	11	.846	73:58

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	20:04
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	10:44
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	1	-1	2	1	1	0	19:33
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	8:03
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	0	2	3	0	20:01
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	22:23
J. EvansC · #71	0	1	1	0	5	2	2	21:39
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	21:42
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	21:35
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	25:37
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	16:01
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	8:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-2	0	1	3	0	24:59
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-1	3	1	2	2	25:34
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-2	0	2	5	4	22:23
L. HutsonD · #48	1	0	0	1	0	5	0	28:55
M. MathesonD · #8	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	29:23
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	15:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	39	3	36	.923	74:06

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR leads series 2-1

May 22

MTL6@

CAR2

May 23

MTL2@

CAR3

May 26

CAR3@

MTL2today

May 28

CAR4@

MTL0

May 30

MTL1@

CAR6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-15561%

MTL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat MTL 3-2. T. Hall led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CAR	2	0	0	1	3
MTL	1	1	0	0	2

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · MTL won 1

CAR

MTL

Play-by-play · 399 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·14:06
Game End
CAR 3·MTL 2
1st OT·14:06
End of OT
CAR 3·MTL 2
1st OT·14:06
Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4)
·
CAR 3·MTL 2
1st OT·13:54
Giveaway by Lane Hutson
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·13:33
Mark Jankowski hit Noah Dobson
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·13:31
William Carrier hit Lane Hutson
· ·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·13:20
Eric Robinson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·13:13
Josh Anderson Snap Shot Short
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·13:06
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·13:06
Icing
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·12:44
Jackson Blake hit Alexandre Carrier
· ·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·12:40
Zachary Bolduc hit Sean Walker
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·12:15
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·12:15
On-Ice Official
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·11:23
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·11:07
Giveaway by Jordan Martinook
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·11:01
Jaccob Slavin hit Alex Newhook
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·10:55
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·10:55
Icing
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·10:49
Jake Evans faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·10:49
Icing
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·10:46
Taylor Hall hit Ivan Demidov
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·9:28
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·9:28
Puck in Netting
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·9:26
Jalen Chatfield Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·8:42
Takeaway by Shayne Gostisbehere
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·8:37
Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Seth Jarvis
· ·
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·8:34
Giveaway by Andrei Svechnikov
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·8:02
Takeaway by Jayden Struble
CAR 2·MTL 2
1st OT·7:58
Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Josh Anderson
·
CAR 2·MTL 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -155/MTL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Taylor Hall · CAR20:061.0366.0%69.0%20:06 TOI · 1.03 iXG · 66.0% CF · 69.0% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR21:360.6872.1%75.8%21:36 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 72.1% CF · 75.8% xGF
Shayne Gostisbehere · CAR21:180.4283.7%73.5%21:18 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 83.7% CF · 73.5% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR22:420.3565.4%68.9%22:42 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 65.4% CF · 68.9% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR21:060.3271.4%77.3%21:06 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 71.4% CF · 77.3% xGF
K'Andre Miller · CAR30:300.3269.2%79.2%30:30 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 69.2% CF · 79.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL36–3.923+2.1836–3 · .923 SV% · +2.18 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR11–2.846-0.5111–2 · .846 SV% · -0.51 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
50.6%
P(MTL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.6%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.6%
P(MTL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.9pp

best edge · MTL · DraftKings

CAR

no live price

MTL

★ best

+130DraftKings

edge +8.9pp · implied 41.7%

Book	CAR	MTL	Best edge
DraftKings	-155	+130★	+8.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.