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FINAL+1CAR
CAR

CAR

53-22-7

32
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, May 25FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -155

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Jackson Blake

Jackson Blake

RW · #53

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
2
CAR53-22-7MTL48-24-10
CAR

CAR

53-22-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Playoff series

CAR leads series 2-1

May 22MTLMTL6@CARCAR2
May 23MTLMTL2@CARCAR3
May 26CARCAR3@MTLMTL2today
May 28CARCAR4@MTLMTL0
May 30MTLMTL1@CARCAR6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-15561%
MTLMTL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat MTL 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
CAR20013
MTL11002

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · MTL won 1

2
1

1

0
1

2

0
0

3

1
0

OT

CAR
MTL

Play-by-play · 399 plays

period
event
player
  1. 1st OT·14:06

    Game End

    CAR 3·MTL 2

  2. 1st OT·14:06

    End of OT

    CAR 3·MTL 2

  3. 1st OT·14:06

    Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4)

    ·

    CAR 3·MTL 2

  4. 1st OT·13:54

    Giveaway by Lane Hutson

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  5. 1st OT·13:33

    Mark Jankowski hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  6. 1st OT·13:31

    William Carrier hit Lane Hutson

    · ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  7. 1st OT·13:20

    Eric Robinson Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  8. 1st OT·13:13

    Josh Anderson Snap Shot Short

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  9. 1st OT·13:06

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  10. 1st OT·13:06

    Icing

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  11. 1st OT·12:44

    Jackson Blake hit Alexandre Carrier

    · ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  12. 1st OT·12:40

    Zachary Bolduc hit Sean Walker

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  13. 1st OT·12:15

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  14. 1st OT·12:15

    On-Ice Official

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  15. 1st OT·11:23

    Giveaway by Nick Suzuki

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  16. 1st OT·11:07

    Giveaway by Jordan Martinook

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  17. 1st OT·11:01

    Jaccob Slavin hit Alex Newhook

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  18. 1st OT·10:55

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  19. 1st OT·10:55

    Icing

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  20. 1st OT·10:49

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  21. 1st OT·10:49

    Icing

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  22. 1st OT·10:46

    Taylor Hall hit Ivan Demidov

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  23. 1st OT·9:28

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  24. 1st OT·9:28

    Puck in Netting

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  25. 1st OT·9:26

    Jalen Chatfield Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  26. 1st OT·8:42

    Takeaway by Shayne Gostisbehere

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  27. 1st OT·8:37

    Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Seth Jarvis

    · ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  28. 1st OT·8:34

    Giveaway by Andrei Svechnikov

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  29. 1st OT·8:02

    Takeaway by Jayden Struble

    CAR 2·MTL 2

  30. 1st OT·7:58

    Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Josh Anderson

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 2

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

39

Shots

13

0.0

PCT

50.0

6

PIM

8

35

Faceoffs W

32

18

Blocks

33

18

Giveaways

21

13

Takeaways

3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -155/MTL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
    DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR