Phoenix Mercury at Toronto Tempo
PHX
4-12
TOR
8-8
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hoenix Mercury visit Toronto Tempo Saturday at 6/27 - 2:00 PM EDT. TOR is 4-4 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
42
FG %
44
Season series
TOR leads series 1-0
TOR98@PHX90PHX@TORtodayTOR@PHXupcomingScouting report
PHX @ TOR
Tale of the tape
4-12
Record
8-8
#7
Conf rank
#4
-5.0
Pt diff
-2.0
L4
Streak
W1
2-8
Last 10
5-5
56.6
Sched ahead
56.3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.1%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.6± 10.1medium
- Marina MabreyTOR19.6± 9.5medium
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.1± 3.4medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.9± 3.2medium
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR5.3± 2.6low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.3± 2.7medium
- Marina MabreyTOR4.2± 2.7medium
- Julie AllemandTOR4.1± 3.1low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.4± 1.2medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.1± 1.0low
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR0.7± 1.1low
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Julie AllemandTOR1.6± 1.3low
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.6± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
TOR
42.3%
FG%
44.6
▶43.5%
32.3%
3PT %
33.4
▶33.6%
81.8
PPG
85.7
▶88.8
18.9
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.7