NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

CAR

53-22-7

PHI

43-27-12

NHLThu, May 7FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasCAR -166

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 4–1.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

Andrei Svechnikov

RW · #37

2Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Trevor Zegras

C · #46

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	20:10
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	15:15
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	9:43
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:30
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	13:54
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:03
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	19:47
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	2	2	1	2	0	0	15:11
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	7:41
J. StaalC · #11	1	1	1	2	3	1	0	15:26
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	-1	2	1	1	2	14:38
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	1	0	3	4	0	0	17:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	1	0	0	5	0	2	0	18:00
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	2	0	2	3	1	2	17:46
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	21:45
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:55
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	19:24
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	1	2	3	1	2	20:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	19	1	18	.947	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:33
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	11:48
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	1	3	1	2	18:43
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	-1	1	1	0	6	14:30
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	0	-2	2	4	1	0	16:40
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	15:42
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:03
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	10:47
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	-1	2	2	0	14	16:17
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	1	1	2	5	0	0	15:07
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	9:29
T. ZegrasC · #46	1	0	0	2	1	0	2	16:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	10:59
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-1	0	0	1	6	17:33
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	5	0	2	20:09
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	1	2	3	0	24:41
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	17:36
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	2	2	4	2	24:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	31	4	27	.871	59:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

CAR leads series 3-0

May 3

PHI0@

CAR3

May 4

PHI2@

CAR3

May 8

CAR4@

PHI1today

May 9

CAR3@

PHI2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-16662%

PHI+14042%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

CAR

A. Svechnikov

Top skater

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG

F. Andersen

Goaltender

18 SV · 1 GA · .947

PHI

T. Zegras

Top skater

1 G · 2 SOG

D. Vladar

Goaltender

27 SV · 4 GA · .871

How it ended

CAR beat PHI 4-1. A. Svechnikov led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	1	2	4
PHI	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · PHI won 0

CAR

PHI

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:43
Sean Couturier hit Jordan Martinook
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Luke Glendening
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Garnet Hathaway Roughing against Jackson Blake served by Carl Grundstrom
· ·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Rasmus Ristolainen Roughing against Shayne Gostisbehere
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Shayne Gostisbehere Roughing against Rasmus Ristolainen
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Logan Stankoven Roughing against Nick Seeler
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Nick Seeler Roughing against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:27
Logan Stankoven Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:05
Garnet Hathaway hit K'Andre Miller
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·18:41
Nick Seeler shot blocked by Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Luke Glendening
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
TV Timeout
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Travis Konecny Misconduct
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Eric Robinson Roughing against Travis Konecny
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Travis Konecny Slashing against K'Andre Miller
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Travis Konecny Roughing against K'Andre Miller served by Alex Bump
· ·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:15
Takeaway by Jaccob Slavin
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:10
Jordan Martinook Tip-In saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:00
Giveaway by Sean Couturier
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·16:17
Garnet Hathaway hit Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·15:32
Eric Robinson Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·15:11
Travis Sanheim hit Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·14:56
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·13:29
Cam York hit Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·13:00
Cam York hit Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·12:27
Trevor Zegras Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·12:21
Trevor Zegras faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·12:21
Sebastian Aho High-sticking against Alex Bump
·
CAR 4·PHI 1

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

22.2

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -166/PHI +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
CORSI%6699+
Shayne GostisbehereCAR · D
CORSI%6599+
Sebastian AhoCAR · C
CORSI%6499
Jackson BlakeCAR · RW
CORSI%6499
Seth JarvisCAR · C
CORSI%6499

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Andrei Svechnikov · CAR17:420.4684.8%90.8%17:42 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 84.8% CF · 90.8% xGF
Jordan Martinook · CAR15:180.4557.9%58.7%15:18 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 57.9% CF · 58.7% xGF
William Carrier · CAR9:540.4260.0%68.2%9:54 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 60.0% CF · 68.2% xGF
Nikolaj Ehlers · CAR17:480.3171.0%78.4%17:48 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 71.0% CF · 78.4% xGF
Alex Bump · PHI11:480.2833.3%51.7%11:48 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 33.3% CF · 51.7% xGF
Trevor Zegras · PHI16:480.2646.4%64.2%16:48 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 46.4% CF · 64.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR18–1.947+0.4418–1 · .947 SV% · +0.44 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI27–4.871-2.0027–4 · .871 SV% · -2.00 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.2%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
44.8%
P(PHI win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
44.8%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
44.8%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+140

Close price

+140

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss