Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

CAR

53-22-7

PHI

43-27-12

NHLThu, May 7FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasCAR -166

CAR · top performer

Andrei Svechnikov

RW · #37

2Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Trevor Zegras

C · #46

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	20:10
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	15:15
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	9:43
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:30
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	13:54
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:03
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	19:47
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	2	2	1	2	0	0	15:11
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	7:41
J. StaalC · #11	1	1	1	2	3	1	0	15:26
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	-1	2	1	1	2	14:38
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	1	0	3	4	0	0	17:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	1	0	0	5	0	2	0	18:00
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	2	0	2	3	1	2	17:46
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	21:45
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:55
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	19:24
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	1	2	3	1	2	20:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	19	1	18	.947	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:33
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	11:48
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	1	3	1	2	18:43
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	-1	1	1	0	6	14:30
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	0	-2	2	4	1	0	16:40
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	15:42
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:03
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	10:47
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	-1	2	2	0	14	16:17
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	1	1	2	5	0	0	15:07
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	9:29
T. ZegrasC · #46	1	0	0	2	1	0	2	16:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	10:59
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-1	0	0	1	6	17:33
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	5	0	2	20:09
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	1	2	3	0	24:41
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	17:36
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	2	2	4	2	24:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	31	4	27	.871	59:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

22.2

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR leads series 3-0

May 3

PHI0@

CAR3

May 4

PHI2@

CAR3

May 8

CAR4@

PHI1today

May 9

CAR3@

PHI2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-16662%

PHI+14042%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PHI 4-1. A. Svechnikov led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	1	2	4
PHI	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · PHI won 0

CAR

PHI

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:43
Sean Couturier hit Jordan Martinook
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Luke Glendening
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Garnet Hathaway Roughing against Jackson Blake served by Carl Grundstrom
· ·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Rasmus Ristolainen Roughing against Shayne Gostisbehere
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Shayne Gostisbehere Roughing against Rasmus Ristolainen
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Logan Stankoven Roughing against Nick Seeler
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:34
Nick Seeler Roughing against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:27
Logan Stankoven Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·19:05
Garnet Hathaway hit K'Andre Miller
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·18:41
Nick Seeler shot blocked by Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Luke Glendening
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
TV Timeout
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Travis Konecny Misconduct
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Eric Robinson Roughing against Travis Konecny
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Travis Konecny Slashing against K'Andre Miller
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:41
Travis Konecny Roughing against K'Andre Miller served by Alex Bump
· ·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:15
Takeaway by Jaccob Slavin
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:10
Jordan Martinook Tip-In saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·17:00
Giveaway by Sean Couturier
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·16:17
Garnet Hathaway hit Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·15:32
Eric Robinson Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·15:11
Travis Sanheim hit Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·14:56
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·13:29
Cam York hit Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·13:00
Cam York hit Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·12:27
Trevor Zegras Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·12:21
Trevor Zegras faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·PHI 1
3rd·12:21
Sebastian Aho High-sticking against Alex Bump
·
CAR 4·PHI 1

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -166/PHI +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 4–1.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Andrei Svechnikov · CAR17:420.6284.8%90.4%17:42 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 84.8% CF · 90.4% xGF
Nikolaj Ehlers · CAR17:480.4571.0%77.3%17:48 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 71.0% CF · 77.3% xGF
Alex Bump · PHI11:480.4033.3%47.9%11:48 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 33.3% CF · 47.9% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR20:120.3282.4%80.8%20:12 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 82.4% CF · 80.8% xGF
Jalen Chatfield · CAR18:060.3157.6%50.0%18:06 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 57.6% CF · 50.0% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR15:180.3066.7%67.7%15:18 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 66.7% CF · 67.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR18–1.947+1.0518–1 · .947 SV% · +1.05 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI27–4.871-0.9827–4 · .871 SV% · -0.98 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.8%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
44.8%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
44.8%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
44.8%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+140

Close price

+140

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.