Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VGK?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

UTA

43-33-6

VGK

39-26-17

NHLWed, Apr 29FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-1VegasVGK -162

UTA · top performer

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/2OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	17:36
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	0	6	3	0	4	27:37
L. CrouseLW · #67	1	0	0	1	11	0	0	28:24
D. GuentherRW · #11	1	0	0	6	1	0	2	27:34
B. HaytonC · #27	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	12:49
C. KellerRW · #9	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	29:40
A. KerfootC · #15	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	19:11
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:36
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	1	0	4	2	2	2	30:46
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	18:14
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	-1	3	5	0	0	10:22
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	17:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	24:37
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-1	2	2	3	2	19:04
J. MarinoD · #6	1	0	0	2	1	2	0	27:58
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	26:36
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	0	2	0	5	2	37:35
M. WeegarD · #52	0	1	2	1	3	2	0	27:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	38	5	33	.868	85:28

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	-1	0	10	0	2	24:27
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	3	0	2	5	0	2	0	23:42
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	1	5	1	0	16:56
J. EichelC · #9	0	2	0	5	1	1	2	31:15
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	0	2	4	1	0	16:19
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	20:29
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	13:12
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	2	2	1	0	2	25:47
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	-2	1	2	1	0	17:32
R. SmithRW · #19	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	14:55
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	4	0	4	15:47
M. StoneRW · #61	0	1	-1	3	1	0	0	30:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-1	4	0	2	0	34:29
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	34:07
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	14:24
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	4	2	2	0	19:52
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	2	3	1	4	0	27:56
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	1	2	4	0	2	0	34:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	38	4	34	.895	84:40

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 3-2

Apr 20

UTA2@

VGK4

Apr 22

UTA3@

VGK2

Apr 25

VGK2@

UTA4

Apr 28

VGK5@

UTA4

Apr 30

UTA4@

VGK5today

May 2

VGK5@

UTA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA+13642%

VGK-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 64 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat UTA 5-4. P. Dorofeyev led the way — 3 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
UTA	1	1	2	0	0	4
VGK	1	2	1	0	1	5

Period scoring

UTA won 1 · VGK won 2

UTA

VGK

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

2nd OT·5:28
Game End
UTA 4·VGK 5
2nd OT·5:28
End of 2nd OT
UTA 4·VGK 5
2nd OT·5:28
Brett Howden Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (4)
·
UTA 4·VGK 5
2nd OT·5:12
Brett Howden faceoff won against Lawson Crouse
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·5:12
Goalie Stopped
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·5:10
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·5:08
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·4:35
Nick Schmaltz Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·4:07
Nic Dowd Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·4:04
Logan Cooley Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·4:02
Clayton Keller Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:45
Takeaway by Clayton Keller
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:42
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:42
Reilly Smith High-sticking against John Marino
· ·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:34
Reilly Smith Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
· ·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:53
Nate Schmidt hit Keegan Kolesar
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:51
Alexander Kerfoot hit Colton Sissons
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:30
Jeremy Lauzon hit Brandon Tanev
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:19
Sean Durzi hit Jack Eichel
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:11
Giveaway by Kevin Stenlund
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:02
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Barrett Hayton
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:02
Goalie Stopped
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:00
Colton Sissons Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·0:27
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·0:27
Off-side
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·0:00
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·0:00
UTA 4·VGK 4
1st OT·20:00
End of 1st OT
UTA 4·VGK 4
1st OT·19:29
Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
UTA 4·VGK 4
1st OT·19:02
Takeaway by Dylan Guenther
UTA 4·VGK 4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA +136/VGK -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Utah Mammoth, 5–4 in overtime.

UTA +1.5 cashed (VGK won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Nick Schmaltz · UTA31:000.8659.6%65.2%31:00 TOI · 0.86 iXG · 59.6% CF · 65.2% xGF
Jack Eichel · VGK31:300.7550.0%61.8%31:30 TOI · 0.75 iXG · 50.0% CF · 61.8% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR23:480.6151.4%51.8%23:48 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 51.4% CF · 51.8% xGF
Logan Cooley · UTA28:000.5666.7%73.9%28:00 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 66.7% CF · 73.9% xGF
Mark Stone · VGK31:120.5550.0%55.0%31:12 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 50.0% CF · 55.0% xGF
Clayton Keller · UTA30:120.4464.3%65.3%30:12 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 64.3% CF · 65.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK34–4.895-0.2934–4 · .895 SV% · -0.29 GSAx
Karel Vejmelka · UTA33–5.868-1.3033–5 · .868 SV% · -1.30 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.2%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
57.2%
P(VGK win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.2%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.2%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VGK?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Utah MammothVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL