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FINAL+4NSH
NSH

NSH

23-20-4

73
COL

COL

33-5-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Jan 16FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCOL -325

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 7–3.

NSH +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

NSH
Ryan O'Reilly

Ryan O'Reilly

C · #90

4Points

3

G

1

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Brock Nelson

Brock Nelson

C · #11

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
7
3
NSH23-20-4COL33-5-8
NSH

NSH

23-20-4

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

33-5-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

2

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 23COLCOL3@NSHNSH0
Dec 10COLCOL3@NSHNSH4
Dec 14NSHNSH2@COLCOL4
Jan 17NSHNSH7@COLCOL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSHNSH+26028%
COLCOL-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat COL 7-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NSH2237
COL2013

Period scoring

NSH won 2 · COL won 0

2
2

1

2
0

2

3
1

3

NSH
COL

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NSH 7·COL 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NSH 7·COL 3

  3. 3rd·19:20

    Tyson Jost Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NSH 7·COL 3

  4. 3rd·18:30

    Parker Kelly Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 7·COL 3

  5. 3rd·18:02

    Giveaway by Parker Kelly

    NSH 7·COL 3

  6. 3rd·17:41

    Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    NSH 7·COL 3

  7. 3rd·17:41

    Michael McCarron Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    NSH 7·COL 3

  8. 3rd·17:31

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    NSH 6·COL 3

  9. 3rd·17:31

    TV Timeout

    NSH 6·COL 3

  10. 3rd·17:31

    Cole Smith Slashing against Zakhar Bardakov

    ·

    NSH 6·COL 3

  11. 3rd·17:28

    Tyson Jost hit Ivan Ivan

    ·

    NSH 6·COL 3

  12. 3rd·17:20

    Ilya Solovyov Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    NSH 6·COL 3

  13. 3rd·17:08

    Ilya Solovyov hit Cole Smith

    ·

    NSH 6·COL 3

  14. 3rd·17:04

    Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Ivan Ivan

    ·

    NSH 6·COL 3

  15. 3rd·17:04

    Steven Stamkos Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (16), Roman Josi (18)

    · ·

    NSH 6·COL 3

  16. 3rd·16:57

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    NSH 5·COL 3

  17. 3rd·16:57

    Icing

    NSH 5·COL 3

  18. 3rd·16:54

    Brady Skjei Wrist Shot Short

    NSH 5·COL 3

  19. 3rd·16:31

    Josh Manson hit Filip Forsberg

    ·

    NSH 5·COL 3

  20. 3rd·16:28

    Takeaway by Filip Forsberg

    NSH 5·COL 3

  21. 3rd·16:02

    Cole Smith Tip-In Short

    ·

    NSH 5·COL 3

  22. 3rd·15:35

    Reid Schaefer hit Jack Drury

    ·

    NSH 5·COL 3

  23. 3rd·15:13

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    NSH 5·COL 3

  24. 3rd·15:13

    Filip Forsberg Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (27), Roman Josi (17)

    · ·

    NSH 5·COL 3

  25. 3rd·14:51

    Giveaway by Sam Malinski

    NSH 4·COL 3

  26. 3rd·14:27

    Giveaway by Roman Josi

    NSH 4·COL 3

  27. 3rd·14:07

    Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Valeri Nichushkin

    ·

    NSH 4·COL 3

  28. 3rd·14:05

    Filip Forsberg Backhand saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    · ·

    NSH 4·COL 3

  29. 3rd·14:04

    Steven Stamkos Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    · ·

    NSH 4·COL 3

  30. 3rd·13:55

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    NSH 4·COL 3

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

COL

Home

30

Shots

43

100.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

2

36

Faceoffs W

20

12

Blocks

17

16

Giveaways

20

5

Takeaways

6

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +260/COL -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+260

Close price

+260

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

26.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR