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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

23-15-7

43
COL

COL

33-4-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 12FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasCOL -238

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Auston Matthews

Auston Matthews

C · #34

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
TOR23-15-7COL33-4-8
TOR

TOR

23-15-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

33-4-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Jan 13TORTOR4@COLCOL3today
Jan 25COLCOL4@TORTOR1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+19534%
COLCOL-23870%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat COL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
TOR11114
COL20103

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · COL won 1

1
2

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

1
0

OT

TOR
COL

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·3:59

    Game End

    TOR 4·COL 3

  2. OT·3:59

    End of OT

    TOR 4·COL 3

  3. OT·3:59

    William Nylander Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (20), Auston Matthews (15)

    · ·

    TOR 4·COL 3

  4. OT·3:51

    Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    TOR 3·COL 3

  5. OT·3:30

    Takeaway by Artturi Lehkonen

    TOR 3·COL 3

  6. OT·3:10

    Matias Maccelli Wrist Shot saved by Trent Miner

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  7. OT·2:34

    William Nylander Snap Shot saved by Trent Miner

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  8. OT·2:17

    Giveaway by Cale Makar

    TOR 3·COL 3

  9. OT·1:49

    Martin Necas Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  10. OT·1:38

    Bobby McMann Slap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  11. OT·1:27

    Nathan MacKinnon Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  12. OT·1:00

    Giveaway by Sam Malinski

    TOR 3·COL 3

  13. OT·0:41

    Auston Matthews faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  14. OT·0:41

    Icing

    TOR 3·COL 3

  15. OT·0:22

    Cale Makar hit William Nylander

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  16. OT·0:00

    John Tavares faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  17. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    TOR 3·COL 3

  18. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 3·COL 3

  19. 3rd·19:56

    Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  20. 3rd·19:26

    Takeaway by William Nylander

    TOR 3·COL 3

  21. 3rd·18:52

    Takeaway by Steven Lorentz

    TOR 3·COL 3

  22. 3rd·18:34

    Ross Colton Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  23. 3rd·18:33

    Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Matthew Knies

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  24. 3rd·18:18

    Brandon Carlo Wrist Shot saved by Trent Miner

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  25. 3rd·17:18

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  26. 3rd·17:18

    Auston Matthews Tripping against Martin Necas

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  27. 3rd·17:11

    Max Domi shot blocked by Martin Necas

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  28. 3rd·16:56

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Auston Matthews

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

  29. 3rd·16:56

    Off-side

    TOR 3·COL 3

  30. 3rd·16:55

    Max Domi hit Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    TOR 3·COL 3

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

COL

Home

31

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

33.3

8

PIM

6

28

Faceoffs W

27

22

Blocks

12

15

Giveaways

22

8

Takeaways

3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +195/COL -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Bobby McMannSEA · C
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR