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FINAL+6COL
OTT

OTT

20-18-5

28
COL

COL

32-4-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 8FinalSeriesCOL leads series 1-0VegasCOL -290

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Ottawa Senators, 8–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Claude Giroux

Claude Giroux

RW · #28

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
8
OTT20-18-5COL32-4-7
OTT

OTT

20-18-5

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

32-4-7

8
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

42

PIM

16

Season series

COL leads series 1-0

Jan 9OTTOTT2@COLCOL8today
Jan 29COLCOL2@OTTOTT5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT+23530%
COLCOL-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat OTT 8-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT0112
COL2608

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · COL won 2

0
2

1

1
6

2

1
0

3

OTT
COL

Play-by-play · 329 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 2·COL 8

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 2·COL 8

  3. 3rd·19:22

    David Perron shot blocked by Parker Kelly

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  4. 3rd·18:59

    Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Ivan Ivan

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  5. 3rd·18:59

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 2·COL 8

  6. 3rd·18:57

    Jordan Spence shot blocked by Jack Drury

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  7. 3rd·18:54

    Drake Batherson Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  8. 3rd·18:36

    Claude Giroux shot blocked by Shane Pinto

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  9. 3rd·18:34

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  10. 3rd·18:32

    Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Zakhar Bardakov

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  11. 3rd·18:27

    Shane Pinto Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  12. 3rd·18:19

    Claude Giroux shot blocked by Josh Manson

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  13. 3rd·17:59

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  14. 3rd·17:59

    Icing

    OTT 2·COL 8

  15. 3rd·17:51

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  16. 3rd·17:51

    Icing

    OTT 2·COL 8

  17. 3rd·17:45

    Brady Tkachuk hit Samuel Girard

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  18. 3rd·17:29

    Fabian Zetterlund hit Jack Drury

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  19. 3rd·16:44

    David Perron hit Zakhar Bardakov

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  20. 3rd·16:21

    Drake Batherson Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  21. 3rd·16:18

    Dylan Cozens Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  22. 3rd·16:08

    Brady Tkachuk hit Martin Necas

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  23. 3rd·16:07

    Giveaway by Martin Necas

    OTT 2·COL 8

  24. 3rd·16:05

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Tyler Kleven

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  25. 3rd·15:33

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  26. 3rd·15:33

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 2·COL 8

  27. 3rd·15:31

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  28. 3rd·15:06

    Takeaway by Josh Manson

    OTT 2·COL 8

  29. 3rd·14:42

    Josh Manson Slap Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

  30. 3rd·14:23

    Gavin Brindley Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 2·COL 8

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

COL

Home

31

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

33.3

42

PIM

16

28

Faceoffs W

33

14

Blocks

21

7

Giveaways

11

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +235/COL -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895
  • Sam MalinskiCOL · D
    BURSTS1793

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR