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FINAL+1COL
UTA

UTA

18-18-3

01
COL

COL

27-2-7

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLTue, Dec 23FinalSeriesCOL leads series 2-1VegasCOL -270

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Utah Mammoth, 1–0.

UTA +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Daniil But

Daniil But

LW · #19

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Gavin Brindley

Gavin Brindley

C · #54

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
0
1
UTA18-18-3COL27-2-7
UTA

UTA

18-18-3

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

27-2-7

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

COL leads series 2-1

Oct 10UTAUTA1@COLCOL2
Oct 22COLCOL3@UTAUTA4
Dec 24UTAUTA0@COLCOL1today
Feb 26COLCOL4@UTAUTA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA+22031%
COLCOL-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat UTA 1-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA0000
COL0101

Period scoring

UTA won 0 · COL won 1

0
0

1

0
1

2

0
0

3

UTA
COL

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 0·COL 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 0·COL 1

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Clayton Keller Slap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  4. 3rd·19:36

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  5. 3rd·19:36

    Icing

    UTA 0·COL 1

  6. 3rd·19:03

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  7. 3rd·19:03

    Puck in Netting

    UTA 0·COL 1

  8. 3rd·19:02

    Daniil But shot blocked by Devon Toews

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  9. 3rd·19:01

    Sean Durzi shot blocked by Cale Makar

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  10. 3rd·18:56

    Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Cale Makar

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  11. 3rd·18:48

    Nathan MacKinnon hit Dylan Guenther

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  12. 3rd·18:47

    Dylan Guenther Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  13. 3rd·18:03

    Dylan Guenther Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  14. 3rd·18:01

    Giveaway by Brock Nelson

    UTA 0·COL 1

  15. 3rd·17:26

    John Marino shot blocked by Josh Manson

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  16. 3rd·17:23

    Giveaway by Josh Manson

    UTA 0·COL 1

  17. 3rd·17:20

    Nathan MacKinnon hit Michael Carcone

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  18. 3rd·16:57

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Gabriel Landeskog

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  19. 3rd·16:57

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 0·COL 1

  20. 3rd·16:53

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  21. 3rd·16:39

    Jack McBain faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  22. 3rd·16:39

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    UTA 0·COL 1

  23. 3rd·15:07

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  24. 3rd·15:07

    Icing

    UTA 0·COL 1

  25. 3rd·14:52

    Sean Durzi hit Martin Necas

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  26. 3rd·14:46

    Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  27. 3rd·14:46

    Off-side

    UTA 0·COL 1

  28. 3rd·14:24

    Giveaway by Samuel Girard

    UTA 0·COL 1

  29. 3rd·13:59

    Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Gabriel Landeskog

    ·

    UTA 0·COL 1

  30. 3rd·13:41

    Giveaway by Lawson Crouse

    UTA 0·COL 1

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

COL

Home

32

Shots

26

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

6

32

Faceoffs W

26

19

Blocks

21

16

Giveaways

21

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA +220/COL -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+220

Close price

+220

Open no-vig

30.0%

Close no-vig

30.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR