Dec 28, 25sim 98
234
11(H)3
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3PHI
PHI
21-12-7
52
EDM
20-16-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
hiladelphia Flyers went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 5–2.
PHI +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHI · top performer
Sean Couturier
C · #14
2Points
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
EDM · top performer
Connor McDavid
C · #97
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
PHI21-12-7
52
EDM20-16-6
PHI21-12-7EDM20-16-6
PHI
21-12-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
EDM
20-16-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
11
PIM
9
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Nov 13EDM2@PHI1
EDM2@PHI1Jan 3PHI5@EDM2today
PHI5@EDM2todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
EDM -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
PHI+13043%EDM-15561%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
PHI beat EDM 5-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
PHI won 2 · EDM won 1
3
1
1
0
1
2
2
0
3
PHI
EDM
Play-by-play · 303 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·20:00
Garnet Hathaway Unsportsmanlike conduct against Darnell Nurse
·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·19:41
Emil Andrae shot blocked by Adam Henrique
·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·19:39
Rodrigo Abols faceoff won against Adam Henrique
·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·19:39
Icing
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·19:33
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Rodrigo Abols
·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·19:33
Goalie Stopped
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·19:31
Jamie Drysdale Wrist Shot saved by Calvin Pickard
·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·19:29
Spencer Stastney hit Matvei Michkov
·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·19:27
Matvei Michkov Deflected Wide Left
·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·19:17
Spencer Stastney Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:50
Matt Savoie faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:50
Owen Tippett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (18), Nick Seeler (5)
· ·
PHI 5·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:45
Connor McDavid hit Sean Couturier
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:38
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:38
Icing
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:35
Sean Couturier Wrist Shot Wide Right
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:33
Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:24
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:24
Icing
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:18
Zach Hyman Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:17
Zach Hyman Snap Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:16
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Tip-In saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:01
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·17:17
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·17:17
Icing
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·17:12
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot Wide Left
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·17:09
Connor McDavid Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
- 3rd·16:07
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 4·EDM 2
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
EDM
Home
29
Shots
25
0.0
PCT
50.0
11
PIM
9
36
Faceoffs W
25
15
Blocks
18
12
Giveaways
15
3
Takeaways
5
Betting line
EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI +130/EDM -155
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
Jamie DrysdalePHI · DSKATE MPH23.098- Connor McDavidEDM · CBURSTS5498
Travis SanheimPHI · DSKATE MPH22.795
Evan BouchardEDM · DSHOT MPH97.395
Cam YorkPHI · DSKATE MPH22.693
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.6%
ensemble · EDM favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(EDM win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(EDM win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(EDM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.