Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PHI

PHI

20-11-7

VAN

16-20-3

NHLTue, Dec 30FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasPHI -148

PHI · top performer

Christian Dvorak

C · #22

1Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Drew O'Connor

LW · #18

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AbolsC · #18	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	13:24
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	12:23
B. BrinkRW · #10	1	1	1	1	3	0	2	12:09
N. CatesLW · #27	1	1	2	1	0	2	0	13:07
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-2	3	2	0	0	16:51
C. DvorakC · #22	1	0	2	5	0	0	0	17:48
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	10:52
C. GrundstromRW · #91	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	13:39
T. KonecnyRW · #11	1	1	2	3	2	1	2	16:54
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	12:30
O. TippettRW · #74	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:30
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	16:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	2	1	4	1	0	19:27
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	1	1	1	2	0	2	19:15
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	1	-1	3	1	2	0	23:39
T. SanheimD · #6	0	1	3	2	2	1	2	20:33
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	-1	1	2	1	5	17:49
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	2	2	0	3	0	19:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	35	3	32	.914	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	16:53
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-2	3	5	0	0	19:03
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	0	-4	2	2	0	0	13:37
D. KampfC · #64	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	14:22
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	-2	4	3	0	5	10:58
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	17:22
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	13:33
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-2	3	0	3	0	12:29
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	19:11
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-3	1	0	1	0	12:52
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	14:01
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	2	5	10	1	0	16:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	24:14
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-2	2	0	2	2	24:43
P. JosephD · #7	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	14:09
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	-2	4	1	1	0	16:35
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	1	0	0	0	2	2	18:55
T. WillanderD · #5	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DemkoG · #35	31	4	27	.871	58:46

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Dec 23

VAN2@

PHI5

Dec 31

PHI6@

VAN3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-14860%

VAN+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat VAN 6-3. C. Dvorak led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	1	2	3	6
VAN	1	0	2	3

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · VAN won 0

PHI

VAN

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 6·VAN 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 6·VAN 3
3rd·19:23
Rodrigo Abols faceoff won against Max Sasson
·
PHI 6·VAN 3
3rd·19:23
Christian Dvorak Goal (9) Poke, assists: Trevor Zegras (24), Travis Konecny (23)
· ·
PHI 6·VAN 3
3rd·19:07
Zeev Buium shot blocked by Travis Konecny
·
PHI 5·VAN 3
3rd·19:04
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 5·VAN 3
3rd·19:02
Giveaway by Travis Sanheim
PHI 5·VAN 3
3rd·18:58
Jake DeBrusk Tip-In Wide Right
·
PHI 5·VAN 3
3rd·18:26
Trevor Zegras hit Zeev Buium
·
PHI 5·VAN 3
3rd·18:16
David Kampf faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 5·VAN 3
3rd·18:16
Tom Willander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none
PHI 5·VAN 3
3rd·18:11
Drew O'Connor Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 5·VAN 2
3rd·18:10
Kiefer Sherwood Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 5·VAN 2
3rd·18:00
Matvei Michkov shot blocked by Liam Ohgren
·
PHI 5·VAN 2
3rd·17:19
Noah Cates faceoff won against Max Sasson
·
PHI 5·VAN 2
3rd·17:19
Owen Tippett Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Rodrigo Abols (5), Rasmus Ristolainen (2)
· ·
PHI 5·VAN 2
3rd·17:12
Liam Ohgren shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·17:11
Conor Garland Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·16:05
Zeev Buium shot blocked by Cam York
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·15:46
Christian Dvorak Wrist Shot saved by Thatcher Demko
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·15:36
Brock Boeser shot blocked by Cam York
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·15:32
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Sean Couturier
· ·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·15:32
Carl Grundstrom Holding against Linus Karlsson
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·15:31
Linus Karlsson shot blocked by Tom Willander
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·15:29
Max Sasson Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·15:14
Liam Ohgren Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·15:07
Giveaway by Emil Andrae
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·14:37
Jake DeBrusk hit Rasmus Ristolainen
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·14:26
Evander Kane Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·VAN 2
3rd·14:20
Giveaway by Evander Kane
PHI 4·VAN 2

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI -148/VAN +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 6–3.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.3%
P(VAN win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.3%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.3%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.