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Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
64,497 attended
FINAL+17NYJ
NYJ
1-1
170
PIT
1-1
NFL · Drive chart
22 drives · 2 TD · 1 FG · 2 INT · 3 Downs · 2 Miss · 12 PuntTDNYJ10p · 69y PuntPIT3p · 1y PuntNYJ3p · 1y PuntPIT4p · 4y PuntNYJ6p · 18y INTPIT12p · 56y PuntNYJ5p · 14y INTPIT10p · 47y MissNYJ9p · 29y DownsPIT7p · 16y DownsNYJ4p · 9y MissPIT7p · 33y PuntNYJ3p · 2y PuntPIT3p · -7y PuntNYJ3p · 9y PuntPIT8p · 28y FGNYJ7p · 53y PuntPIT3p · -3y PuntNYJ3p · 8y PuntPIT3p TDNYJ6p · 49y DownsPIT9p · 42y
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · PIT favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
NYJ
league avg
PIT
14.5
Pts / game
23.5
▶24.0
287
Yds / game
342
▶317
164
Pass yds / G
225
▶214
123
Rush yds / G
◀
117
103
1.1
TO / G
0.9
▶0.7
Team pages
Elsewhere in the NFL
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
