
CAR
1-1

JAX
1-0
NFL · Drive chart
16 drives · 3 TD · 4 FG · 1 INT · 1 Fum · 1 Miss · 5 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Team pages
Elsewhere in the NFL
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · JAX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(JAX win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(JAX win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(JAX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Back Judge
Terrence Miles
Down Judge
Dana McKenzie
Field Judge
Mearl Robinson
Side Judge
Anthony Jeffries
Umpire
Terry Killens Jr.
Line Judge
Thomas Eaton
Referee
Alex Moore
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · liveK. Pickett
CAR · #12 · QB
J. Aguilar
JAX · #17 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveCAR · top performer

Kenny Pickett
· #12
15/25
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
JAX · top performer

Joey Aguilar
· #17
4/4
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/25 | 137 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5/6 | 49 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 20/31 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39 | 0 | 39 | |
| 5 | 24 | 0 | 9 | |
| 5 | 18 | 1 | 11 | |
| 3 | 17 | 0 | 9 | |
| 5 | 16 | 1 | 7 | |
| Team | 19 | 114 | 2 | 39 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 77 | 0 | 25 | |
| 2 | 25 | 0 | 17 | |
| 2 | 20 | 0 | 15 | |
| 1 | 16 | 1 | 16 | |
| 1 | 15 | 0 | 15 | |
| 2 | 8 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 20 | 186 | 1 | 25 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 45 | 34 | 1 | 3 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 37 | 0 | |
| 1 | 34 | 34 | 0 | |
| 1 | 29 | 29 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 100 | 37 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15 | 0 | |
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 25 | 15 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/3 | 61 | 3/3 | 9 | |
| Team | 2/3 | 61 | 3/3 | 9 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 94 | 47.0 | 2 | |
| Team | 2 | 94 | 47.0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 71 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6/7 | 65 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6/13 | 51 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 16/24 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 45 | 0 | 23 | |
| 5 | 20 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 17 | 73 | 0 | 23 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 41 | 0 | 22 | |
| 2 | 39 | 0 | 21 | |
| 3 | 37 | 0 | 18 | |
| 2 | 32 | 0 | 17 | |
| 4 | 22 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 16 | 187 | 0 | 22 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 53 | 31 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 65 | 26 | 0 | |
| 1 | 33 | 33 | 0 | |
| 1 | 21 | 21 | 0 | |
| Team | 5 | 119 | 33 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | 34 | 0/0 | 6 | |
| Team | 2/2 | 34 | 0/0 | 6 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 171 | 57.0 | 1 | |
| Team | 3 | 171 | 57.0 | 1 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
300
Total yds
252
114
Rush yds
73
0
TO
2
Team stats
CAR
Away
Stat
JAX
Home
300
Total yards
252
114
Rushing yds
73
0
Turnovers
2
4-30
totalPenaltiesYards
9-60
22:52
possessionTime
22:47
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CAR -2.5
Half-pt below key 3
Total
38.5
Defensive · -8.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.5h
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
CAR lead JAX 27-6 (14:21 - 4th). Kenny Pickett led the way — 15/25 · 137 YDS · 1 TD · 88.2 QBR. CAR have outscored the other side 13-3 in the 2nd quarter.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 7 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 27 |
| JAX | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Betting line
CAR -2.5·O/U 38.5·CAR -135/JAX +114
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
38.5
-1.0 since open
Win probability
JAX vs CAR
Period scoring
CAR won 3 · JAX won 0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Play-by-play · 138 plays
−3pp
−2pp
+2pp
+4pp
−1pp
−4pp
+0.7pp
−2pp
−3pp
−3pp
−3pp
−0.6pp
−2pp
−1pp
−3pp
+2pp
+4pp
+0.6pp
+0.8pp
+3pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
CAR
league avg
JAX
20.1
Pts / game
23.5
▶28.2
311
Yds / game
342
▶352
194
Pass yds / G
225
▶237
116
Rush yds / G
117
115
1.1
TO / G
0.9
▶0.9