MLBMid 9
WSH 2@MIA 2
-11.9pppeak
MLBMid 8
NYM 4@CHW 4
-11.3pppeak
MLBBot 6
LAA 0@TEX 0
-11.1pppeak
MLBEnd 1
CIN 0@ARI 1
+17.5ppmedium
MLBTop 9
TOR 1@NYY 3
+36.5pplow
MLBMid 2
MIN 0@SD 2
+32.6pplow
MLBTop 6
ATH 0@HOU 3
+28.7pplow
MLBTop 7
DET 0@KC 3
+46.5pplow
MLBMid 5
CLE 4@COL 1
-39.1pplow
NFL12:04 - 2nd
GB 10@DEN 10
NFL14:21 - 4th
CAR 27@JAX 6
TONIGHTGraded picks 4-2 so far (MLB 3-1, WNBA 1-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBZ. Neto (LAA): 5 H · 1 HR · 7 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. deGrom (TEX): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over WSH — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBG. Rodriguez (LAA): 7.0 IP · 6 K in a win over HOU
TRANSACTION · MLBCardinals: Placed RHP Andre Pallante on the 15-day IL, retroactive to Aug (Aug 21)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Claimed INF Gabriel Arias off waivers from the New York Mets (Aug 21)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent C Sebastián Rivero on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Aug 21)
MLBMid 9
WSH 2@MIA 2
-11.9pppeak
MLBMid 8
NYM 4@CHW 4
-11.3pppeak
MLBBot 6
LAA 0@TEX 0
-11.1pppeak
MLBEnd 1
CIN 0@ARI 1
+17.5ppmedium
MLBTop 9
TOR 1@NYY 3
+36.5pplow
MLBMid 2
MIN 0@SD 2
+32.6pplow
MLBTop 6
ATH 0@HOU 3
+28.7pplow
MLBTop 7
DET 0@KC 3
+46.5pplow
MLBMid 5
CLE 4@COL 1
-39.1pplow
NFL12:04 - 2nd
GB 10@DEN 10
NFL14:21 - 4th
CAR 27@JAX 6
TONIGHTGraded picks 4-2 so far (MLB 3-1, WNBA 1-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBZ. Neto (LAA): 5 H · 1 HR · 7 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. deGrom (TEX): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over WSH — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBG. Rodriguez (LAA): 7.0 IP · 6 K in a win over HOU
TRANSACTION · MLBCardinals: Placed RHP Andre Pallante on the 15-day IL, retroactive to Aug (Aug 21)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Claimed INF Gabriel Arias off waivers from the New York Mets (Aug 21)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent C Sebastián Rivero on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Aug 21)
HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
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THE ONE Analytics
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NFL logoNFLHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersFantasyDraft '26LeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
CAR logo
CAR
27
Live14:21 - 4th
JAX logo
JAX
6
Updated 10:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
14:21 - 4TH+21CAR↑
CAR

CAR

1-1

27
6
JAX

JAX

1-0

NFL · Drive chart

16 drives · 3 TD · 4 FG · 1 INT · 1 Fum · 1 Miss · 5 Punt
  1. PuntCAR4p · 21y
  2. PuntJAX3p · 8y
  3. TDCAR7p · 58y
  4. FGJAX13p · 71y
  5. PuntCAR3p · 3y
  6. PuntJAX4p · 15y
  7. FGCAR12p · 62y
  8. INTJAX3p · 5y
  9. TDCAR3p · 26y
  10. FGJAX10p · 47y
  11. FGCAR4p · 19y
  12. FumJAX4p · 35y
  13. MissCAR13p · 54y
  14. PuntJAX3p · 3y
  15. TDCAR7p · 69y
  16. —JAX4p · 50y
Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props

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Team pages

Carolina PanthersatJacksonville Jaguars

Elsewhere in the NFL

  • Packers7@Broncos1012:04 - 2nd
  • Jets17@Steelers0Final

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 59-41
62%Last 30 · 283-174
Receipts →

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · JAX favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(JAX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Qb Elo

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(JAX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Dvoa Proxy

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(JAX win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

On the call · NFL

7 officials

Back Judge

Terrence Miles

Down Judge

Dana McKenzie

Field Judge

Mearl Robinson

Side Judge

Anthony Jeffries

Umpire

Terry Killens Jr.

Line Judge

Thomas Eaton

Referee

Alex Moore

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

QB · live passing line

ESPN leaders · live

K. Pickett

CAR · #12 · QB

137 yds15/25 · 1 TD · 0 INT

J. Aguilar

JAX · #17 · QB

71 yds4/5 · 0 TD · 0 INT

Recent plays · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. JAX · Kickoff0th & goal · +26 ydsQ3
  2. JAX · Pass Reception1st & 10 · +18 ydsQ3
  3. JAX · Pass Reception1st & 10 · +17 ydsQ3
  4. JAX · Pass Reception1st & 10 · +15 ydsQ3
  5. JAX · End Period1st & 10 · no gainQ3
  6. JAX · Rush1st & 10 · no gainQ4
  7. JAX · Timeout2nd & 10 · no gainQ4
  8. JAX · Pass Incompletion2nd & 10 · no gainQ4
NFL·Fri, Aug 21·14:21 - 4th/VegasCAR -2.5
Updated 0s ago

CAR · top performer

CAR
Kenny Pickett

Kenny Pickett

· #12

137Pass yds

15/25

C/A

1

TD

0

INT

JAX · top performer

JAX
Joey Aguilar

Joey Aguilar

· #17

71Pass yds

4/4

C/A

0

TD

0

INT

Game flowCAR ↔ JAX

NFL · Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars · live

NFL · Box score

14:21 - 4th

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Kenny Pickett · #12
15/2513710
Bryce Young · #9
5/64900
Team20/3118610

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jimmy Horn Jr. · #15
139039
Trevor Etienne · #23
52409
Jonathon Brooks · #25
518111
Anthony Tyus III · #34
31709
AJ Dillon · #28
51617
Team19114239

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
John Metchie III · #13
677025
Tetairoa McMillan · #4
225017
Tommy Tremble · #82
220015
Roc Taylor · #39
116116
Jimmy Horn Jr. · #15
115015
AJ Dillon · #28
28011
Ja'Tavion Sanders · #0
1606
Casey Washington · #88
1505
Feleipe Franks · #81
1404
Brycen Tremayne · #87
1404
Jalen Coker · #18
1404
David Moore · #83
1202
James Mitchell · #85
0000
Mitchell Evans · #84
0000
Trevor Etienne · #23
0000
Team20186125

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Cam Gill · #49
001
Team001

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Mike Jackson · #2
5300
Zakee Wheatley · #38
4300
Tre'von Moehrig · #7
4200
DeVonta Smith · #43
3200
Robert Rochell · #33
2200
Isaiah Simmons · #27
2200
Claudin Cherelus · #53
2200
Corey Thornton · #31
2200
Trevin Wallace · #32
2200
Cam Miller · #42
2200
Demani Richardson · #36
2100
Princely Umanmielen · #3
2100
Jackson Kuwatch · #46
2100
Patrick Jones II · #91
1111
Cam Gill · #49
1100
Elijah Garcia · #96
1101
James Mitchell · #85
1100
Lee Hunter · #92
1101
Roc Taylor · #39
1100
Chau Smith-Wade · #26
1100
Isaiah Smith · #47
1100
Mapalo Mwansa · #58
1100
Trevis Gipson · #52
1000
Bam Martin-Scott · #54
1000
Lathan Ransom · #22
0000
Team453413

Interceptions

interceptions box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Chau Smith-Wade · #26
170
Team170

Kick Returns

kickReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Anthony Tyus III · #34
137370
Trevor Etienne · #23
134340
Jimmy Horn Jr. · #15
129290
Team3100370

Punt Returns

puntReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Trevor Etienne · #23
115150
John Metchie III · #13
1880
Jimmy Horn Jr. · #15
1220
Team325150

Kicking

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Ryan Fitzgerald · #10
2/3613/39
Team2/3613/39

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Sam Martin · #6
29447.02
Team29447.02

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Joey Aguilar · #17
4/47100
Nick Mullens · #14
6/76500
Carter Bradley · #10
6/135101
Team16/2417901

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Ameer Abdullah · #43
645023
DeeJay Dallas · #20
52005
Nick Mullens · #14
1303
J'Mari Taylor · #30
4305
CJ Williams · #18
1202
Team1773023

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Josh Cameron · #19
241022
Trebor Pena · #86
239021
Ameer Abdullah · #43
337018
Michael Wortham · #0
232017
CJ Williams · #18
42208
Quintin Morris · #80
1606
Austin Trammell · #81
1505
Tim Jones · #13
1505
Hunter Long · #84
0000
Team16187022

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
DeeJay Dallas · #20
110
Team110

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jabbar Muhammad · #37
6400
Caleb Ransaw · #27
5200
Christian Braswell · #21
4300
Jahlani Tavai · #32
4200
Yasir Abdullah · #56
3200
Rayuan Lane III · #25
3200
Quindarius Dunnigan · #59
3100
Ventrell Miller · #51
3000
Ross Matiscik · #46
2200
Amari Burney · #49
2200
Corey Ballentine · #38
2200
Bryan Thomas Jr. · #57
2200
Baylon Spector · #31
2101
Jalen Huskey · #22
2100
Ruke Orhorhoro · #99
2000
T.J. Bollers · #94
2000
Quintin Morris · #80
1100
Tim Jones · #13
1100
Keivie Rose · #97
1100
Danny Striggow · #92
1100
Devon Marshall · #40
1100
Branson Combs · #50
1000
Preston Hodge · #26
0000
Team533101

Kick Returns

kickReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Michael Wortham · #0
365260
Chandler Brayboy · #15
133330
Josh Cameron · #19
121210
Team5119330

Kicking

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Cam Little · #39
2/2340/06
Team2/2340/06

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Logan Cooke · #9
317157.01
Team317157.01

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

300

Total yds

252

114

Rush yds

73

0

TO

2

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

JAX

Home

300

Total yards

252

114

Rushing yds

73

0

Turnovers

2

4-30

totalPenaltiesYards

9-60

22:52

possessionTime

22:47

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -2.5

Half-pt below key 3

Total

38.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

↘1.0pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

CARCAR-13557%
JAXJAX+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -2.5↗SpreadBet CAR -2.5↗

How it's going

CAR lead JAX 27-6 (14:21 - 4th). Kenny Pickett led the way — 15/25 · 137 YDS · 1 TD · 88.2 QBR. CAR have outscored the other side 13-3 in the 2nd quarter.

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
CAR7137027
JAX33006

Betting line

CAR -2.5·O/U 38.5·CAR -135/JAX +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

38.5

-1.0 since open

Win probability

JAX vs CAR

0255075100

Period scoring

CAR won 3 · JAX won 0

7
3

Q1

13
3

Q2

7
0

Q3

0
0

Q4

CAR
JAX

Play-by-play · 138 plays

event
  1. —

  2. —

    −3pp

  3. —

  4. —

    −2pp

  5. —

    +2pp

  6. —

  7. —

    +4pp

  8. —

    −1pp

  9. —

  10. —

  11. —

  12. —

    −4pp

  13. —

    +0.7pp

  14. —

  15. —

    −2pp

  16. —

    −3pp

  17. —

  18. —

  19. —

    −3pp

  20. —

    −3pp

  21. —

    −0.6pp

  22. —

    −2pp

  23. —

  24. —

    −1pp

  25. —

    −3pp

  26. —

    +2pp

  27. —

    +4pp

  28. —

    +0.6pp

  29. —

    +0.8pp

  30. —

    +3pp

Tale of the tape

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

CAR

CAR

league avg

JAX

JAX

20.1

Pts / game

23.5

▶

28.2

311

Yds / game

342

▶

352

194

Pass yds / G

225

▶

237

116

Rush yds / G

◀

117

115

1.1

TO / G

0.9

▶

0.9