ATS form
80.0%
JAX last 10 against the number
JAX has covered consistently lately, backing market trust before kickoff today again.

JAX

NYG
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDrill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · NYG favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYG win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYG win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYG win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
JAX
league avg
NYG
28.2
Pts / game
23.5
22.6
352
Yds / game
342
347
237
Pass yds / G
225
218
115
Rush yds / G
117
▶129
0.9
TO / G
0.9
▶0.8
Preview · NFL
acksonville Jaguars visit New York Giants Sunday at 11/22 - 1:00 PM EST.
Vegas opened JAX as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 46.5. NYG's moneyline implies a 49% break-even, JAX the inverse.
For bettors: the JAX side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 46.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
JAX -1.5
Between — and 3
Total
46.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 3 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
46.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
JAX @ NYG
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
JAX -1.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
46.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
JAX -125
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Offensive efficiency · 2025 season
17 / 17 weeks
352
+9.9 vs avg
Yards / game
347
+4.9 vs avg
237
+11.8 vs avg
Pass yds / game
218
-7.2 vs avg
115
-1.8 vs avg
Rush yds / game
129
+12.2 vs avg
28.2
+4.7 vs avg
Off TD pts / game
22.6
-0.9 vs avg
0.90
0.0 vs avg
Turnovers / game
0.80
+0.1 vs avg
Tale of the tape
13-4
Record
4-13
#3
Conf rank
#15
+138.0
Pt diff
-58.0
W8
Streak
W2
—
Last 10
—
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
JAX -1.5·O/U 46.5·JAX -125/NYG +105