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THE ONE Analytics
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Washington Commanders at New York Giants

WSH
WSH

WSH

PregameThu, 8:15 PM EST
NYG
NYG

NYG

MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 63-32
63%Last 30 · 298-178
Receipts →

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · NYG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Qb Elo

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Dvoa Proxy

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYG win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Cavalli (WSH): 7.0 IP · 13 K in a win over BOS — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sanchez (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over PIT — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPadres: Sent C Luis Campusano on a rehab assignment to El Paso (PCL) (Jun 30)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Swanson (CHC): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over SD
LAST NIGHT · MLBT. Edman (LAD): 4 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH
TRANSACTION · MLBTwins: Agreed to terms with RHP Jesus Moreno on a minor league contract (Jun 30)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAB. Stewart (NY): 25 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over LV
LAST NIGHT · WNBAJ. Young (LV): 31 PTS · 2 REB · 7 AST against NY
TRANSACTION · MLBMarlins: Reinstated C Liam Hicks from the 10-day IL (Jun 30)
TRANSACTION · NBAKings: Acquired draft consideration from Atlanta Hawks for G Devin Carter (Jun 30)
TRANSACTION · NBATrail Blazers: Re-signed C Robert Williams III to a veteran extension (Jun 30)
TRANSACTION · NBAWarriors: Re-signed F Kristaps Porzingas to a veteran extension (Jun 30)
TONIGHT · MLBCHW @ BAL, 7/1 - 12:35 PM EDT — BAL -136
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Cavalli (WSH): 7.0 IP · 13 K in a win over BOS — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sanchez (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over PIT — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPadres: Sent C Luis Campusano on a rehab assignment to El Paso (PCL) (Jun 30)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Swanson (CHC): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over SD
LAST NIGHT · MLBT. Edman (LAD): 4 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH
TRANSACTION · MLBTwins: Agreed to terms with RHP Jesus Moreno on a minor league contract (Jun 30)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAB. Stewart (NY): 25 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over LV
LAST NIGHT · WNBAJ. Young (LV): 31 PTS · 2 REB · 7 AST against NY
TRANSACTION · MLBMarlins: Reinstated C Liam Hicks from the 10-day IL (Jun 30)
TRANSACTION · NBAKings: Acquired draft consideration from Atlanta Hawks for G Devin Carter (Jun 30)
TRANSACTION · NBATrail Blazers: Re-signed C Robert Williams III to a veteran extension (Jun 30)
TRANSACTION · NBAWarriors: Re-signed F Kristaps Porzingas to a veteran extension (Jun 30)
TONIGHT · MLBCHW @ BAL, 7/1 - 12:35 PM EDT — BAL -136

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

WSH

WSH

league avg

NYG

NYG

20.5

Pts / game

23.5

▶

22.6

331

Yds / game

342

▶

347

196

Pass yds / G

225

▶

218

135

Rush yds / G

◀

117

129

1.1

TO / G

0.9

▶

0.8

NFL·Thu, Nov 12·11/12 - 8:15 PM EST/VegasNYG -1.5

Preview · NFL

Washington Commanders visit New York Giants Thursday at 11/12 - 8:15 PM EST.

Vegas opened NYG as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 47.5. NYG's moneyline implies a 56% break-even, WSH the inverse.

For bettors: the NYG side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 47.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYG -1.5

Between — and 3

Total

47.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+10549%
NYGNYG-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYG -1.5↗SpreadBet NYG -1.5↗

Scouting report

WSH @ NYG

11/12 - 8:15 PM EST

Model edge vs market

Lean only
Spread

Market

NYG -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

47.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

NYG -125

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Offensive efficiency · 2025 season

17 / 17 weeks

331

-11.5 vs avg

Yards / game

347

+4.9 vs avg

196

-29.2 vs avg

Pass yds / game

218

-7.2 vs avg

135

+17.8 vs avg

Rush yds / game

129

+12.2 vs avg

20.5

-3.0 vs avg

Off TD pts / game

22.6

-0.9 vs avg

1.10

-0.2 vs avg

Turnovers / game

0.80

+0.1 vs avg

Tale of the tape

WSHmetricNYG

5-12

Record

4-13

#14

Conf rank

#15

-95.0

Pt diff

-58.0

W1

Streak

W2

—

Last 10

—

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

NYG -1.5·O/U 47.5·WSH +105/NYG -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 2 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

47.5

0.0 since open