ATS form
50.0%
MIA last 10 against the number
MIA has covered consistently lately, backing market trust before kickoff today again.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
KC
KC
PregameSun, 1:00 PM EDT
MIA
MIA
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDrill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
KC
league avg
MIA
21.5
Pts / game
◀
23.5
21.2
339
Yds / game
◀
342
316
232
Pass yds / G
◀
225
195
107
Rush yds / G
117
▶120
0.8
TO / G
◀
0.9
1.3
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)