NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16MIN

DEN

54-28

96112

MIN

49-33

NBASat, Apr 25FinalSeriesDEN wins series 3-1VegasDEN -1.5

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Ayo Dosunmu

G · #13

37.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	23	9	4-11	1-5	—	-7	1	0
C. JohnsonF · #23	27	9	3-6	1-2	2-4	-12	2	2
N. JokicC · #15	41	24	8-22	0-3	8-8	-12	15	9
J. MurrayG · #27	42	30	10-25	3-7	7-7	-13	5	5
C. BraunG · #0	34	8	2-4	1-1	3-4	-9	5	1
Bench
D. Holmes IIF · #14	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
S. JonesF · #21	25	0	0-2	0-2	—	-14	4	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	28	10	3-10	0-6	4-5	+1	5	2
B. BrownG · #11	21	6	3-7	0-2	—	-14	1	2
J. PickettG · #24	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		96	33-87	6-28	24-28		38	21
DNP: Z. Nnaji, J. Valanciunas, T. Jones, J. Strawther

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	32	15	6-16	0-1	3-4	+13	9	2
J. McDanielsF · #3	33	12	4-11	0-1	4-4	+14	8	3
R. GobertC · #27	36	4	2-8	0-1	—	+1	15	2
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	+5	0	1
A. EdwardsG · #5	18	5	1-8	1-3	2-2	-3	3	0
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	3	0	0-1	—	—	+5	0	0
N. ReidC · #11	28	17	7-13	1-5	2-2	+14	9	2
M. ConleyG · #10	21	5	2-4	1-2	—	+7	1	4
A. DosunmuG · #13	42	43	13-17	5-5	12-12	+10	4	1
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	7	3	1-1	1-1	—	+5	0	0
B. HylandG · #8	20	8	3-9	0-5	2-2	+9	1	7
Team		112	39-89	9-25	25-26		50	22
DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

33-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-89

FG %

6-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-25

24-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-26

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

MIN leads series 3-1

Apr 18

MIN105@

DEN116

Apr 21

MIN119@

DEN114

Apr 24

DEN96@

MIN113

Apr 26

DEN96@

MIN112today

Apr 28

MIN113@

DEN125

May 1

DEN98@

MIN110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN-11854%

MIN-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -1.5↗SpreadBet DEN -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat DEN 112-96. A. Dosunmu led the way with 43 points and 4 rebounds. MIN outscored the other side 30-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 28 REB · 17 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

16 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 13

MINstarters 32% of pts

Starters(5)

36 PTS · 35 REB · 8 AST

GS 23

Bench(6)

76 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST

GS 68

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN1st Quarter · 4:39 · 15-15

+8pp→ 50% WP

Christian Braun · makes 24-foot three pointer (Nikola Jokic assists)

MIN2nd Quarter · 9:03 · 28-27

+9pp→ 44% WP

Jaden McDaniels · lost ball turnover

DEN3rd Quarter · 6:59 · 63-65

+8pp→ 44% WP

Julius Randle · misses driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	23	31	24	18	96
MIN	22	28	32	30	112

Period scoring

DEN won 2 · MIN won 2

Jokic 10

Dosunmu 6

Murray 9

Dosunmu 10

Murray 6

Randle 12

Murray 11

Dosunmu 15

DEN

MIN

Shooting comparison

DEN

MIN

38%

33-87

44%

39-89

21%

6-28

3PT

36%

9-25

86%

24-28

96%

25-26

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·0.1
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·1.3
Nikola Jokic ejected
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·1.3
Julius Randle ejected
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·1.3
Bruce Brown misses heave jump shot
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·1.3
Jalen Pickett enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·1.3
Cameron Johnson enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·1.3
DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Christian Braun
·
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·1.3
Bones Hyland enters the game for Julius Randle
·
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·1.3
Terrence Shannon Jr. enters the game for Jaden McDaniels
·
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·1.3
(00:01.3) [Nuggets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·2.1
Jaden McDaniels makes layup (Mike Conley assists)
·
DEN 96·MIN 112
Q4·8.9
Mike Conley defensive rebound
DEN 96·MIN 110
Q4·10.4
Jamal Murray misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
DEN 96·MIN 110
Q4·17.5
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 96·MIN 110
Q4·17.5
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 96·MIN 109
Q4·17.5
Spencer Jones personal take foul
·
DEN 96·MIN 108
Q4·27.7
Spencer Jones enters the game for Cameron Johnson
· ·
DEN 96·MIN 108
Q4·27.7
Bruce Brown enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
DEN 96·MIN 108
Q4·27.7
Kyle Anderson enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
DEN 96·MIN 108
Q4·27.7
Timberwolves Full timeout
DEN 96·MIN 108
Q4·27.7
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 96·MIN 108
Q4·27.7
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 95·MIN 108
Q4·27.7
Rudy Gobert personal foul
DEN 94·MIN 108
Q4·33.0
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 94·MIN 108
Q4·33.0
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 94·MIN 107
Q4·33.0
Christian Braun personal take foul
DEN 94·MIN 106
Q4·38.3
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
DEN 94·MIN 106
Q4·42.5
Nikola Jokic misses 23-foot three point jumper
DEN 94·MIN 106

Betting line

DEN -1.5·O/U 228.5·DEN -118/MIN -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off Denver Nuggets, 112–96.

MIN +1.5 cashed (DEN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Aaron GordonDEN · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Naz ReidMIN
7.1± 1.4high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Ayo DosunmuMIN
3.9± 3.1high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

MIN

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.6%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

116.8

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR