DEN
54-28
MIN
49-33
DEN · top performer
Nikola Jokic
C · #15
27
Pts
15
Reb
3
Ast
MIN · top performer
Ayo Dosunmu
G · #13
25
Pts
3
Reb
9
Ast
Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 8:00
NBA · Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -14 | 2 | 1 | |
| 28 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | — | -5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 35 | 27 | 7-26 | 2-10 | 11-11 | -21 | 15 | 3 | |
| 35 | 16 | 5-17 | 0-5 | 6-7 | -12 | 3 | 4 | |
| 24 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-4 | -19 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 10 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 5-6 | +2 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 28 | 11 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-4 | -13 | 5 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 9 | 4-7 | — | 1-2 | -3 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 96 | 28-82 | 8-32 | 32-40 | 40 | 12 | ||
| DNP: J. Valanciunas | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 15 | 6-15 | 0-3 | 3-6 | +8 | 6 | 4 | |
| 41 | 20 | 9-13 | 1-3 | 1-1 | +8 | 10 | 3 | |
| 36 | 10 | 3-7 | — | 4-5 | +18 | 12 | 3 | |
| 33 | 15 | 6-13 | 3-8 | — | +20 | 4 | 7 | |
| 24 | 17 | 6-15 | 2-8 | 3-3 | +11 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 18 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-4 | — | +4 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 25 | 10-15 | 0-3 | 5-6 | +11 | 3 | 9 | |
| 15 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-4 | — | -1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Team | 113 | 44-93 | 9-34 | 16-21 | 53 | 31 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
34
FG %
47
12
Ast
31
Team stats
DEN
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
28-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-93
34
FG %
47
8-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-34
32-40
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-21
12
Assists
31
10
Turnovers
10
Playoff series
MIN leads series 2-1
MIN105@DEN116MIN119@DEN114DEN96@MIN113todayDEN96@MIN112MIN113@DEN125DEN98@MIN110Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
231.5
Standard · +5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DEN-10852%MIN-11253%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 18 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
231.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat DEN 113-96. A. Dosunmu paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 9 AST. MIN outscored the other side 25-11 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs DEN
Starters vs bench
production by unitDENstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 23 REB · 8 AST
GS 31
Bench(7)
39 PTS · 17 REB · 4 AST
GS 28
MINstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 37 REB · 20 AST
GS 69
Bench(8)
36 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJamal Murray · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 11 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 96 |
| MIN | 25 | 36 | 27 | 25 | 113 |
Period scoring
DEN won 2 · MIN won 2
Q1
Murray 4
McDaniels 9
Q2
Jokic 9
Dosunmu 10
Q3
Jokic 8
Dosunmu 7
Q4
Jokic 6
McDaniels 7
Shooting comparison
34%
28-82
FG
47%
44-93
25%
8-32
3PT
26%
9-34
80%
32-40
FT
76%
16-21
Play-by-play · 494 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·4.9
Nuggets defensive team rebound
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·8.4
Joan Beringer misses tip shot
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·9.0
Joan Beringer offensive rebound
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·9.4
Kyle Anderson misses 16-foot step back jumpshot
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·20.1
Joan Beringer offensive rebound
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·24.1
Mike Conley misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·42.1
Mike Conley enters the game for Julius Randle
·
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·42.1
Joan Beringer enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·42.1
Joe Ingles enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo
·
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·42.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·42.1
Julian Phillips defensive rebound
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·44.7
Tyus Jones misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·50.9
Donte DiVincenzo makes dunk (Ayo Dosunmu assists)
·
DEN 96·MIN 113
- Q4·54.0
Julian Strawther lost ball turnover (Julian Phillips steals)
·
DEN 96·MIN 111
- Q4·1:02
Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)
·
DEN 96·MIN 111
- Q4·1:13
Tyus Jones makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
·
DEN 96·MIN 108
- Q4·1:21
Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 94·MIN 108
- Q4·1:21
Julian Phillips enters the game for Jaden McDaniels
·
DEN 94·MIN 107
- Q4·1:21
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
DEN 94·MIN 107
- Q4·1:21
Julius Randle misses free throw 1 of 2
DEN 94·MIN 107
- Q4·1:21
Zeke Nnaji shooting foul
DEN 94·MIN 107
- Q4·1:23
Julius Randle offensive rebound
DEN 94·MIN 107
- Q4·1:24
Ayo Dosunmu misses two point shot
DEN 94·MIN 107
- Q4·1:42
Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 94·MIN 107
- Q4·1:42
Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 93·MIN 107
- Q4·1:42
Julius Randle shooting foul
DEN 92·MIN 107
- Q4·1:53
Ayo Dosunmu makes driving layup (Julius Randle assists)
·
DEN 92·MIN 107
- Q4·2:15
Julian Strawther makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Jalen Pickett assists)
·
DEN 92·MIN 105
Betting line
MIN -1.5·O/U 231.5·DEN -108/MIN -112
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves held off Denver Nuggets, 113–96.
MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 22.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Jaden McDanielsMIN · FDRIVES9.886
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DEN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs DEN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Naz ReidMIN7.1± 1.4high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
- Ayo DosunmuMIN3.9± 3.1high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.3± 1.7high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DEN
league avg
MIN
57.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
49.2%
FG%
47.0
47.6%
121.1
PPG
114.9
116.8
28.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
12.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.0