MIN
49-33
DEN
54-28
MIN · top performer
Julius Randle
F · #30
24
Pts
9
Reb
6
Ast
DEN · top performer
Jamal Murray
G · #27
30
Pts
7
Reb
7
Ast
Biggest swing: 66pp · 4th Quarter · 6:07
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 24 | 7-14 | 2-4 | 8-10 | +6 | 9 | 6 | |
| 37 | 14 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | +6 | 2 | 3 | |
| 28 | 2 | 1-4 | — | 0-2 | -4 | 7 | 1 | |
| 31 | 16 | 6-9 | 4-7 | 0-2 | +20 | 7 | 6 | |
| 40 | 30 | 10-25 | 3-11 | 7-9 | 0 | 10 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +3 | 1 | 2 | |
| 27 | 11 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-4 | -4 | 9 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 22 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-2 | — | -3 | 4 | 5 | |
| 10 | 13 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 119 | 43-90 | 14-34 | 19-30 | 49 | 30 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark, T. Shannon Jr. | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 8 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -1 | 7 | 4 | |
| 28 | 13 | 5-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | -10 | 1 | 2 | |
| 40 | 24 | 8-20 | 1-7 | 7-7 | +1 | 15 | 8 | |
| 43 | 30 | 11-25 | 6-14 | 2-2 | -4 | 7 | 7 | |
| 35 | 16 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 5-7 | +4 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 27 | 16 | 4-9 | 3-3 | 5-8 | +4 | 3 | 0 | |
| 16 | 7 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1-2 | -11 | 3 | 2 | |
| Team | 114 | 38-86 | 15-41 | 23-30 | 43 | 28 | ||
| DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, T. Jones, J. Pickett, J. Strawther | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
44
30
Ast
28
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
DEN
Home
43-90
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-86
48
FG %
44
14-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-41
19-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-30
30
Assists
28
12
Turnovers
9
Playoff series
Series tied 1-1
MIN105@DEN116MIN119@DEN114todayDEN96@MIN113DEN96@MIN112MIN113@DEN125DEN98@MIN110Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
Total
232.5
Standard · +6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+24029%DEN-29875%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 16 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
0.0 since open
Total
232.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat DEN 119-114. J. Randle led with 24 PTS, 9 REB, 6 AST. DEN outscored the other side 39-25 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DEN vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
86 PTS · 35 REB · 18 AST
GS 61
Bench(5)
33 PTS · 14 REB · 12 AST
GS 31
DENstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
91 PTS · 33 REB · 26 AST
GS 73
Bench(4)
23 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDonte DiVincenzo · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)
Julius Randle · shooting foul
Tim Hardaway Jr. · enters the game for Cameron Johnson
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 25 | 39 | 26 | 29 | 119 |
| DEN | 39 | 25 | 29 | 21 | 114 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · DEN won 2
Q1
Randle 10
Murray 11
Q2
Edwards 13
Murray 12
Q3
Edwards 8
Jokic 16
Q4
DiVincenzo 7
Brown 6
Shooting comparison
48%
43-90
FG
44%
38-86
41%
14-34
3PT
37%
15-41
63%
19-30
FT
77%
23-30
Play-by-play · 514 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 119·DEN 114
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 119·DEN 114
- Q4·0.6
Nuggets offensive team rebound
MIN 119·DEN 114
- Q4·0.6
Jamal Murray misses heave jump shot
MIN 119·DEN 114
−1pp
- Q4·3.7
Donte DiVincenzo makes 1-foot running dunk (Julius Randle assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 119·DEN 114
−5pp
- Q4·8.0
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
MIN 117·DEN 114
−4pp
- Q4·11.0
Jamal Murray misses 20-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 117·DEN 114
−10pp
- Q4·18.8
Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 117·DEN 114
+8pp
- Q4·18.8
Rudy Gobert enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
MIN 116·DEN 114
- Q4·18.8
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Bruce Brown
·
MIN 116·DEN 114
- Q4·18.8
Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 116·DEN 114
−2pp
- Q4·18.8
Aaron Gordon personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 115·DEN 114
−17pp
- Q4·19.1
Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 115·DEN 114
- Q4·19.1
Bruce Brown enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
MIN 115·DEN 114
- Q4·19.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 115·DEN 114
- Q4·19.1
Christian Braun makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 115·DEN 114
−1pp
- Q4·19.1
Nuggets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 115·DEN 113
−11pp
- Q4·19.1
Christian Braun misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 115·DEN 113
−8pp
- Q4·19.1
Julius Randle shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 115·DEN 113
+23pp
- Q4·30.6
Anthony Edwards traveling turnoverBIG MOMENT
MIN 115·DEN 113
+6pp
- Q4·49.6
Nikola Jokic makes driving dunk
MIN 115·DEN 113
+5pp
- Q4·1:05
Donte DiVincenzo makes 28-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 115·DEN 111
−24pp
- Q4·1:18
(01:18) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
MIN 112·DEN 111
+6pp
- Q4·1:18
Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot running jump shot (Christian Braun assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 112·DEN 111
+16pp
- Q4·1:22
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
MIN 112·DEN 108
+1pp
- Q4·1:27
Jaden McDaniels misses 16-foot fade away jump shot
MIN 112·DEN 108
+4pp
- Q4·1:50
Julius Randle defensive rebound
MIN 112·DEN 108
−2pp
- Q4·1:51
Jamal Murray misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 112·DEN 108
−6pp
- Q4·2:06
Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot dunkBIG MOMENT
MIN 112·DEN 108
−8pp
- Q4·2:07
Rudy Gobert offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 110·DEN 108
−7pp
Betting line
DEN -7.5·O/U 232.5·MIN +240/DEN -298
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves went into Denver Nuggets and beat them, 119–114. Decided by 5.
MIN +7.5 cashed (DEN lost outright). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+- Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · CUSG%26.790
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DEN vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Naz ReidMIN7.1± 1.4high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
- Ayo DosunmuMIN3.9± 3.1high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.3± 1.7high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
DEN
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.2%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
▶49.2%
116.8
PPG
114.9
▶121.1
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.7
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.1