NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16NY

53-29

11498

ATL

46-36

NBASat, Apr 25FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasNY -2.5

NY · top performer

Karl-Anthony Towns

C · #32

23.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

12.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	40	22	9-16	3-6	1-2	+19	10	1
K. TownsC · #32	29	20	6-10	1-2	7-9	+16	10	10
J. HartG · #3	31	10	4-10	1-5	1-2	+16	9	3
M. BridgesG · #25	19	8	3-4	—	2-2	0	2	1
J. BrunsonG · #11	34	19	7-18	3-7	2-2	+11	0	3
Bench
M. DiawaraF · #51	4	0	0-3	—	—	-5	0	1
M. RobinsonC · #23	15	6	2-3	—	2-3	+5	8	1
A. HukportiC · #55	4	0	0-1	—	—	-5	3	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	21	7	2-4	0-1	3-3	+12	0	0
L. ShametG · #44	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	-5	0	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	14	6	2-5	2-3	—	+8	1	2
M. McBrideG · #2	23	11	4-7	3-6	—	+13	0	1
T. KolekG · #13	4	2	1-1	—	—	-5	0	0
Team		114	41-83	14-31	18-23		43	23
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	28	12	4-7	1-3	3-4	-10	6	1
J. JohnsonF · #1	35	14	4-12	1-5	5-5	-19	3	5
C. McCollumG · #3	32	17	8-15	0-4	1-3	-17	1	3
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	35	15	5-11	5-10	—	-17	4	1
D. DanielsG · #5	30	6	3-7	0-2	—	-9	9	6
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	11	3	1-7	0-3	1-1	+5	2	1
J. KumingaF · #0	25	10	3-10	0-6	4-5	-7	2	0
M. GueyeF · #18	11	0	0-1	0-1	—	-12	4	0
A. NewellF · #14	4	2	1-2	—	—	+5	0	1
Z. RisacherF · #10	4	3	1-2	1-2	—	+5	2	0
T. BradleyC · #13	7	4	1-1	—	2-2	+5	5	0
G. VincentG · #4	14	10	3-6	2-4	2-3	-14	0	2
K. WallaceG · #2	4	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	+5	0	0
Team		98	34-83	10-41	20-25		38	20
DNP: B. Hield

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

41-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-83

FG %

14-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-41

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-25

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 18

ATL102@

NY113

Apr 21

ATL107@

NY106

Apr 23

NY108@

ATL109

Apr 25

NY114@

ATL98today

Apr 29

ATL97@

NY126

Apr 30

NY140@

ATL89

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

215.5

Defensive · -10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-13057%

ATL+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -2.5↗SpreadBet NY -2.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

215.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat ATL 114-98. K. Towns stuffed the line with 20 PTS, 10 REB, and 10 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST

GS 62

Bench(8)

35 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 30

ATLstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 44

Bench(8)

34 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY2nd Quarter · 6:54 · 41-29

+9pp→ 83% WP

Mitchell Robinson · enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns

ATL2nd Quarter · 9:12 · 32-24

+8pp→ 26% WP

Josh Hart · enters the game for OG Anunoby

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	27	31	28	28	114
ATL	20	24	21	33	98

Period scoring

NY won 3 · ATL won 1

Brunson 7

Alexander-Walker 6

Hart 9

McCollum 10

Towns 9

Johnson 6

McBride 8

Kuminga 8

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

49%

41-83

41%

34-83

45%

14-31

3PT

24%

10-41

78%

18-23

80%

20-25

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 114·ATL 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 114·ATL 98
Q4·0.1
Hawks offensive team rebound
NY 114·ATL 98
Q4·0.9
Keaton Wallace misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 114·ATL 98
Q4·2.8
Zaccharie Risacher offensive rebound
NY 114·ATL 98
Q4·3.9
Corey Kispert misses two point shot
NY 114·ATL 98
Q4·3.9
Corey Kispert offensive rebound
NY 114·ATL 98
Q4·4.8
Tyler Kolek blocks Corey Kispert 's 8-foot driving layup
·
NY 114·ATL 98
Q4·18.6
Tyler Kolek makes 8-foot two point shot
NY 114·ATL 98
Q4·37.3
Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot running jump shot (Asa Newell assists)
·
NY 112·ATL 98
Q4·43.5
Landry Shamet bad pass turnover (Asa Newell steals)
·
NY 112·ATL 95
Q4·45.9
Corey Kispert makes technical free throw
NY 112·ATL 95
Q4·45.9
Jose Alvarado technical foul
NY 112·ATL 94
Q4·45.9
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 112·ATL 94
Q4·46.9
Tony Bradley blocks Jose Alvarado 's 3-foot driving layup
·
NY 112·ATL 94
Q4·1:04
Tony Bradley makes tip shot
NY 112·ATL 94
Q4·1:04
Tony Bradley offensive rebound
NY 112·ATL 92
Q4·1:05
Corey Kispert misses running layup
NY 112·ATL 92
Q4·1:07
Tony Bradley defensive rebound
NY 112·ATL 92
Q4·1:10
Asa Newell blocks Ariel Hukporti 's 3-foot layup
·
NY 112·ATL 92
Q4·1:22
Ariel Hukporti offensive rebound
NY 112·ATL 92
Q4·1:26
Mohamed Diawara misses driving floating jump shot
NY 112·ATL 92
Q4·1:47
Asa Newell makes dunk (Corey Kispert assists)
·
NY 112·ATL 92
Q4·2:01
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
NY 112·ATL 90
Q4·2:04
Mohamed Diawara misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
NY 112·ATL 90
Q4·2:22
Tony Bradley makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 112·ATL 90
Q4·2:22
Tony Bradley makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 112·ATL 89
Q4·2:22
Tyler Kolek loose ball foul
NY 112·ATL 88
Q4·2:22
Hawks offensive team rebound
NY 112·ATL 88
Q4·2:22
Keaton Wallace misses driving floating jump shot
NY 112·ATL 88

Betting line

NY -2.5·O/U 215.5·NY -130/ATL +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Atlanta Hawks and beat them, 114–98.

NY -2.5 cashed (won by 16). Total stayed UNDER 215.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

ATL

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.2%

116.4

PPG

114.9

117.2

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR