NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATL

53-29

108109

ATL

46-36

NBAThu, Apr 23FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasNY -1.5

NY · top performer

OG Anunoby

F · #8

28.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 43pp · 4th Quarter · 1.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	37	29	9-16	4-8	7-7	-4	9	1
K. TownsC · #32	34	21	7-12	1-3	6-6	+22	17	4
J. HartG · #3	40	2	1-9	0-4	—	+3	9	6
M. BridgesG · #25	21	0	0-3	0-2	—	-26	1	2
J. BrunsonG · #11	40	26	11-23	0-5	4-5	+1	3	4
Bench
M. RobinsonC · #23	11	2	1-2	—	—	-18	4	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	17	8	4-11	0-2	0-1	+1	2	1
L. ShametG · #44	3	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	6	5	2-3	0-1	1-1	+2	0	0
M. McBrideG · #2	31	15	5-14	5-10	—	+16	1	1
Team		108	40-93	10-35	18-20		46	19
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, T. Kolek

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	37	9	4-7	1-4	—	-4	7	1
J. JohnsonF · #1	38	24	8-19	2-6	6-10	+2	10	8
C. McCollumG · #3	35	23	8-19	2-4	5-7	-6	5	1
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	38	14	4-12	3-7	3-3	-11	3	0
D. DanielsG · #5	33	8	3-7	1-2	1-2	+4	13	6
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	5	0	0-1	—	—	0	1	1
J. KumingaF · #0	28	21	9-14	2-4	1-2	+3	4	0
M. GueyeF · #18	11	5	2-4	1-3	—	+5	1	1
G. VincentG · #4	14	5	1-3	1-3	2-2	+12	1	1
Team		109	39-86	13-33	18-26		45	19
DNP: A. Newell, Z. Risacher, T. Bradley, B. Hield, K. Wallace

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

40-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-86

FG %

10-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-33

18-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-26

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

ATL leads series 2-1

Apr 18

ATL102@

NY113

Apr 21

ATL107@

NY106

Apr 23

NY108@

ATL109today

Apr 25

NY114@

ATL98

Apr 29

ATL97@

NY126

Apr 30

NY140@

ATL89

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-11253%

ATL-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -1.5↗SpreadBet NY -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat NY 109-108. J. Johnson led with 24 PTS, 10 REB, 8 AST. ATL outscored the other side 33-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 39 REB · 17 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

GS 17

ATLstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 38 REB · 16 AST

GS 63

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 1:41 · 105-105

+18pp→ 47% WP

Miles McBride · makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)

NY4th Quarter · 1:03 · 107-105

+17pp→ 81% WP

CJ McCollum · shooting foul

ATL4th Quarter · 1.2 · 108-109

+43pp→ 97% WP

Jalen Brunson · bad pass turnover (Jonathan Kuminga steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	21	29	30	28	108
ATL	33	25	30	21	109

Period scoring

NY won 2 · ATL won 1

Brunson 11

Kuminga 10

Towns 8

McCollum 9

Towns 11

Alexander-Walker 11

McBride 9

Johnson 8

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

43%

40-93

45%

39-86

29%

10-35

3PT

39%

13-33

90%

18-20

69%

18-26

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 108·ATL 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 108·ATL 109
+4pp
Q4·1.2
Jalen Brunson bad pass turnover (Jonathan Kuminga steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 108·ATL 109
+43pp
Q4·12.5
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
NY 108·ATL 109
Q4·12.5
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Landry Shamet
·
NY 108·ATL 109
Q4·12.5
Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
NY 108·ATL 109
Q4·12.5
Knicks Full timeout
NY 108·ATL 109
Q4·12.7
CJ McCollum makes 15-foot fade away jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 108·ATL 109
+8pp
Q4·16.4
Mikal Bridges enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 108·ATL 107
Q4·16.4
Landry Shamet enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 108·ATL 107
Q4·16.4
Hawks Full timeout
NY 108·ATL 107
Q4·16.4
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
NY 108·ATL 107
+16pp
Q4·16.4
Knicks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 108·ATL 107
−12pp
Q4·16.6
Jalen Brunson misses 18-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 108·ATL 107
+10pp
Q4·29.3
OG Anunoby offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 108·ATL 107
−10pp
Q4·31.8
Josh Hart misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 108·ATL 107
+9pp
Q4·52.6
Jalen Johnson makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 108·ATL 107
+9pp
Q4·52.6
Jalen Johnson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 108·ATL 105
+7pp
Q4·54.6
Karl-Anthony Towns blocks Jalen Johnson 's 2-foot driving dunkBIG MOMENT
·
NY 108·ATL 105
−8pp
Q4·1:03
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
NY 108·ATL 105
+7pp
Q4·1:03
CJ McCollum shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 107·ATL 105
−17pp
Q4·1:03
Jalen Brunson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 107·ATL 105
−9pp
Q4·1:21
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
NY 105·ATL 105
−2pp
Q4·1:24
CJ McCollum misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 105·ATL 105
−7pp
Q4·1:41
Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 105·ATL 105
−18pp
Q4·1:58
Jalen Johnson makes 3-foot two point shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 102·ATL 105
+9pp
Q4·2:23
OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 102·ATL 103
−14pp
Q4·2:36
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 99·ATL 103
−5pp
Q4·2:36
CJ McCollum blocks Miles McBride 's 2-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
NY 99·ATL 103
+6pp
Q4·2:51
CJ McCollum makes 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 99·ATL 103
+15pp

Betting line

NY -1.5·O/U 214.5·NY -112/ATL -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off New York Knicks, 109–108. It came down to the final possession.

ATL +1.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total cleared the 214.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

ATL

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.2%

116.4

PPG

114.9

117.2

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR