NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12SA

62-20

120108

POR

42-40

NBAFri, Apr 24FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-1VegasSA -1.5

SA · top performer

Dylan Harper

G · #2

27.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Jrue Holiday

G · #5

27.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 25pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:57

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	27	9	3-7	2-4	1-1	+7	6	1
L. KornetC · #7	30	14	6-9	1-1	1-2	+4	10	2
D. FoxG · #4	36	18	7-16	1-6	3-5	+8	4	6
D. VassellG · #24	33	11	4-12	3-7	0-1	+6	7	3
S. CastleG · #5	34	33	10-18	3-4	10-11	-9	2	5
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	21	5	1-7	1-1	2-2	+4	5	3
C. BryantF · #11	23	3	1-5	1-4	—	+17	6	4
D. HarperG · #2	30	27	9-12	4-5	5-6	+25	10	3
Team		120	41-87	16-33	22-28		50	27
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	33	2	1-6	0-4	—	-12	3	1
D. AvdijaF · #8	37	19	3-15	1-4	12-16	-16	6	9
D. ClinganC · #23	20	7	2-6	1-3	2-4	0	11	2
J. HolidayG · #5	41	29	12-18	5-9	—	-7	6	5
S. HendersonG · #00	36	21	8-18	5-10	—	+9	2	1
Bench
J. GrantF · #9	23	13	4-11	2-5	3-3	-19	2	0
K. MurrayF · #24	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
R. Williams IIIC · #35	25	11	5-8	0-1	1-2	-11	9	2
Y. HansenC · #16	1	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	6	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	+2	2	0
V. KrejciG · #27	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
B. WesleyG · #1	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
S. SharpeG · #17	14	4	2-5	—	0-2	-4	3	1
S. CissokoG · #91	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		108	37-90	14-38	20-29		45	21

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

POR

Home

41-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-90

FG %

16-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-38

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-29

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA leads series 2-1

Apr 20

POR98@

SA111

Apr 22

POR106@

SA103

Apr 25

SA120@

POR108today

Apr 26

SA114@

POR93

Apr 29

POR95@

SA114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-12255%

POR+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -1.5↗SpreadBet SA -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat POR 120-108. D. Harper paced them with 27 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. SA outscored the other side 32-21 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST

GS 37

PORstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 56

Bench(9)

30 PTS · 17 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR2nd Quarter · 3:57 · 45-51

+25pp→ 57% WP

Keldon Johnson · misses driving floating jump shot

POR2nd Quarter · 6.9 · 56-65

+14pp→ 61% WP

Jerami Grant · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)

POR3rd Quarter · 6:45 · 64-77

+14pp→ 74% WP

Toumani Camara · enters the game for Deni Avdija

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	27	32	29	32	120
POR	29	36	22	21	108

Period scoring

SA won 2 · POR won 2

Castle 12

Grant 12

Vassell 8

Johnson 16

Harper 12

Camara 19

Harper 10

Holiday 29

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

47%

41-87

41%

37-90

48%

16-33

3PT

37%

14-38

79%

22-28

69%

20-29

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·21.3
shot clock turnover
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·43.3
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·45.1
Vit Krejci misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·55.9
Yang Hansen defensive rebound
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·59.0
De'Aaron Fox misses free throw 2 of 2
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·59.0
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·59.0
Kris Murray enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·59.0
Yang Hansen enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·59.0
Blake Wesley enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·59.0
Vit Krejci enters the game for Scoot Henderson
·
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·59.0
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·59.0
De'Aaron Fox misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·59.0
Jrue Holiday personal foul
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·1:10
Scoot Henderson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)
·
SA 120·POR 108
Q4·1:17
De'Aaron Fox makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)
·
SA 120·POR 105
Q4·1:37
Jerami Grant makes 1-foot driving dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)
·
SA 118·POR 105
Q4·1:41
Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 118·POR 103
Q4·1:41
Carter Bryant enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 117·POR 103
Q4·1:41
Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 117·POR 103
Q4·1:41
Scoot Henderson shooting foul
SA 116·POR 103
Q4·1:42
Scoot Henderson bad pass turnover (Stephon Castle steals)
·
SA 116·POR 103
Q4·1:51
De'Aaron Fox makes 10-foot fade away jump shot
SA 116·POR 103
Q4·2:06
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
SA 114·POR 103
Q4·2:08
Scoot Henderson misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 114·POR 103
−0.6pp
Q4·2:29
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 114·POR 103
Q4·2:29
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 113·POR 103
Q4·2:29
Jrue Holiday shooting foul
SA 112·POR 103
−1pp
Q4·2:47
Jrue Holiday makes driving layup
SA 112·POR 103
+0.7pp

Betting line

SA -1.5·O/U 220.5·SA -122/POR +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Portland Trail Blazers and beat them, 120–108.

SA -1.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 220.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
Damian LillardPOR
19.2± 8.2high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high

Assists

Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high
Damian LillardPOR
6.1± 3.2high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

POR

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.6

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR