NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4TOR

CLE

52-30

8993

TOR

46-36

NBASun, Apr 26FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasCLE -4.5

CLE · top performer

James Harden

G · #1

10.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

20.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 28pp · 4th Quarter · 34.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	28	7	3-5	1-3	—	+11	5	0
J. AllenC · #31	27	3	1-5	—	1-4	+14	15	0
E. MobleyC · #4	32	8	4-11	0-3	—	-13	9	3
J. HardenG · #1	37	19	6-14	2-6	5-6	+1	2	8
D. MitchellG · #45	37	20	6-24	4-12	4-4	-8	6	3
Bench
D. SchroderG · #8	13	8	4-7	0-2	—	0	5	0
M. StrusG · #2	21	1	0-5	0-5	1-2	-15	7	0
S. MerrillG · #5	19	14	5-9	3-7	1-1	+4	0	0
J. TysonG · #20	21	9	3-6	0-1	3-6	-11	5	0
K. EllisG · #14	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	2	1
Team		89	32-87	10-40	15-23		56	15
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	23	6-23	3-7	8-9	+1	6	0
R. BarrettF · #9	39	18	8-22	1-6	1-4	-2	8	1
S. BarnesF · #4	42	23	6-15	0-2	11-14	+9	9	6
J. PoeltlC · #19	21	10	4-7	—	2-2	-7	6	1
J. WalterG · #14	27	0	0-9	0-8	—	-15	7	3
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	13	2	1-3	0-1	—	+6	8	1
J. BattleF · #77	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	1	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	27	15	5-11	—	5-7	+11	10	3
A.J. LawsonG · #0	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	26	2	1-6	0-5	—	+15	4	4
Team		93	31-97	4-30	27-36		59	19
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, G. Dick

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

32-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-97

FG %

10-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-30

15-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-36

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 18

TOR113@

CLE126

Apr 20

TOR105@

CLE115

Apr 24

CLE104@

TOR126

Apr 26

CLE89@

TOR93today

Apr 29

TOR120@

CLE125

May 1

CLE110@

TOR112

May 3

TOR102@

CLE114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-18565%

TOR+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CLE 93-89. S. Barnes led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 6 AST. Jarrett Allen's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 37 REB · 14 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 19 REB · 1 AST

GS 17

TORstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 36 REB · 11 AST

GS 49

Bench(5)

19 PTS · 23 REB · 8 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE4th Quarter · 2:10 · 87-82

+15pp→ 85% WP

Sam Merrill · makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)

TOR4th Quarter · 34.6 · 87-86

+28pp→ 62% WP

Jarrett Allen · shooting foul

TOR4th Quarter · 20.1 · 87-88

+16pp→ 85% WP

Dean Wade · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	17	19	22	31	89
TOR	14	24	22	33	93

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · TOR won 2

Harden 5

Barnes 8

Schroder 6

Ingram 10

Harden 6

Poeltl 6

Mitchell 12

Barrett 11

CLE

TOR

Shooting comparison

CLE

TOR

37%

32-87

32%

31-97

25%

10-40

3PT

13%

4-30

65%

15-23

75%

27-36

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 89·TOR 93
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 89·TOR 93
+0.6pp
Q4·1.5
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
CLE 89·TOR 93
Q4·1.5
Max Strus misses 33-foot three point jumper
CLE 89·TOR 93
+3pp
Q4·3.8
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 89·TOR 93
−2pp
Q4·3.8
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 89·TOR 92
+0.5pp
Q4·3.8
Max Strus personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 89·TOR 91
+7pp
Q4·4.2
(00:04.2) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
CLE 89·TOR 91
−2pp
Q4·4.6
Sam Merrill makes 22-foot jumper (James Harden assists)
·
CLE 89·TOR 91
−1pp
Q4·6.3
Sam Merrill enters the game for Dean Wade
·
CLE 87·TOR 91
Q4·6.3
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 87·TOR 91
Q4·6.3
RJ Barrett makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 87·TOR 91
−1pp
Q4·6.3
Raptors offensive team rebound
CLE 87·TOR 90
−2pp
Q4·6.3
RJ Barrett misses free throw 1 of 2
CLE 87·TOR 90
−1pp
Q4·6.3
Donovan Mitchell personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 87·TOR 90
+5pp
Q4·8.6
Dean Wade enters the game for Sam Merrill
·
CLE 87·TOR 90
Q4·8.6
Raptors defensive team rebound
CLE 87·TOR 90
+3pp
Q4·10.0
Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 87·TOR 90
+10pp
Q4·20.1
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 87·TOR 90
−7pp
Q4·20.1
Sam Merrill enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 87·TOR 89
Q4·20.1
Evan Mobley enters the game for Dean Wade
·
CLE 87·TOR 89
Q4·20.1
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 87·TOR 89
+2pp
Q4·20.1
Dean Wade personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 87·TOR 88
+16pp
Q4·21.6
Jarrett Allen enters the game for Evan Mobley
·
CLE 87·TOR 88
Q4·21.6
Raptors Full timeout
CLE 87·TOR 88
Q4·21.6
Dean Wade enters the game for Sam Merrill
·
CLE 87·TOR 88
Q4·22.8
Brandon Ingram defensive rebound
CLE 87·TOR 88
+4pp
Q4·24.6
Donovan Mitchell misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 87·TOR 88
+11pp
Q4·34.6
Max Strus enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 87·TOR 88
Q4·34.6
Sam Merrill enters the game for Dean Wade
·
CLE 87·TOR 88

Betting line

CLE -4.5·O/U 218.5·CLE -185/TOR +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 93–89. Decided by 4.

TOR +4.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 36.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
6.7± 3.3high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

TOR

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR