GS
26-21
MIN
27-19
GS · top performer
Stephen Curry
G · #30
26
Pts
2
Reb
7
Ast
MIN · top performer
Anthony Edwards
G · #5
32
Pts
11
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 11pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:45
NBA · Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | — | +14 | 5 | 5 | |
| 23 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-5 | — | +7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 28 | 26 | 7-18 | 3-10 | 9-9 | +16 | 2 | 7 | |
| 28 | 19 | 7-15 | 5-9 | — | +13 | 8 | 2 | |
| 22 | 12 | 6-10 | 0-2 | — | +16 | 5 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | +5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 21 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-3 | — | +10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 16 | 5 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | +20 | 4 | 0 | |
| 17 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-3 | — | +11 | 2 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | — | — | — | -6 | 1 | 1 | |
| 21 | 12 | 4-13 | 1-5 | 3-3 | +7 | 3 | 4 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | +5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-5 | — | +7 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 111 | 40-95 | 16-51 | 15-16 | 45 | 31 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 11 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 5-6 | -15 | 5 | 6 | |
| 28 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-1 | — | -13 | 3 | 1 | |
| 24 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -21 | 5 | 0 | |
| 32 | 22 | 7-19 | 6-15 | 2-2 | -21 | 7 | 0 | |
| 34 | 32 | 13-20 | 4-7 | 2-3 | -16 | 11 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | — | — | 0-2 | -4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 25 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | -9 | 10 | 1 | |
| 16 | 2 | — | — | 2-2 | -14 | 3 | 1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -8 | 0 | 1 | |
| 16 | 5 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 1-3 | +3 | 1 | 3 | |
| 5 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 85 | 30-79 | 13-38 | 12-20 | 50 | 16 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
38
31
Ast
16
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
40-95
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-79
42
FG %
38
16-51
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-38
15-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-20
31
Assists
16
12
Turnovers
25
Season series
Series tied 1-1
MIN127@GS120GS0@MIN0GS111@MIN85todayGS83@MIN108MIN127@GS117Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
237.5
High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS+16438%MIN-19866%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
237.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
GS beat MIN 111-85. S. Curry paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 7 AST. GS outscored the other side 38-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 25 REB · 22 AST
GS 68
Bench(9)
42 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST
GS 33
MINstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 31 REB · 9 AST
GS 41
Bench(8)
13 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactStephen Curry · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)
Jaden McDaniels · makes 25-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)
Draymond Green · makes tip shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 24 | 23 | 38 | 26 | 111 |
| MIN | 19 | 27 | 17 | 22 | 85 |
Period scoring
GS won 3 · MIN won 1
Q1
Moody 10
Edwards 8
Q2
Melton 10
DiVincenzo 12
Q3
Podziemski 8
Randle 6
Q4
Curry 9
Edwards 7
Shooting comparison
42%
40-95
FG
38%
30-79
31%
16-51
3PT
34%
13-38
94%
15-16
FT
60%
12-20
Play-by-play · 493 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 111·MIN 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 111·MIN 85
- Q4·21.3
Quinten Post defensive rebound
GS 111·MIN 85
- Q4·22.9
Joan Beringer misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 111·MIN 85
- Q4·22.9
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
GS 111·MIN 85
- Q4·22.9
Joan Beringer misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 111·MIN 85
- Q4·22.9
Trayce Jackson-Davis shooting foul
GS 111·MIN 85
- Q4·28.8
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 111·MIN 85
- Q4·28.8
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 110·MIN 85
- Q4·28.8
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 110·MIN 85
- Q4·28.8
Joan Beringer shooting foul
GS 110·MIN 85
- Q4·43.0
Joe Ingles bad pass turnover (Pat Spencer steals)
·
GS 110·MIN 85
- Q4·56.2
L.J. Cryer makes 25-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)
·
GS 110·MIN 85
- Q4·1:04
L.J. Cryer defensive rebound
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:07
Jaylen Clark misses 25-foot running jump shot
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:12
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:17
L.J. Cryer misses 27-foot three point jumper
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:25
Pat Spencer defensive rebound
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:28
Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Rob Dillingham 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot
·
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:33
Leonard Miller offensive rebound
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:36
Leonard Miller misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:47
Double technical foul: Joe Ingles and Quinten Post
·
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:47
Quinten Post offensive foul turnover
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:47
Quinten Post offensive foul
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:56
Quinten Post defensive rebound
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·1:59
Rob Dillingham misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·2:11
Quinten Post makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 107·MIN 85
- Q4·2:11
Quinten Post makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 106·MIN 85
- Q4·2:11
Joan Beringer shooting foul
GS 105·MIN 85
- Q4·2:12
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 105·MIN 85
Betting line
MIN -5.5·O/U 237.5·GS +164/MIN -198
Recap · NBA
olden State Warriors went into Minnesota Timberwolves and beat them, 111–85. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
GS +5.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 41.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+- Stephen CurryGS · GUSG%31.597
- Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · FTS%68.397
Draymond GreenGS · FCONT7.593
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Kristaps PorzingisGS5.6± 2.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS5.4± 1.6high
Assists
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS4.8± 1.7high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
- Stephen CurryGS1.3± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
GS
league avg
MIN
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
46.2%
FG%
47.0
▶47.6%
114.5
PPG
114.9
▶116.8
28.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
15.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶14.0