NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23CHA

MEM

24-46

101124

CHA

37-34

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriesCHA wins series 2-0VegasCHA -18.5

MEM · top performer

Taylor Hendricks

F · #22

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:08

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	27	10	3-8	1-3	3-4	-21	7	1
G. JacksonF · #45	24	19	7-14	0-5	5-6	-14	3	1
J. WellsF · #0	25	9	3-12	3-10	0-1	-16	0	1
J. SmallG · #10	29	17	7-12	3-6	—	-10	7	3
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	22	11	4-9	3-6	—	-19	4	2
Bench
T. GibsonF · #67	12	7	3-4	1-2	—	-3	3	0
T. BurtonF · #5	29	10	3-8	2-5	2-2	-8	4	1
T. HendricksF · #22	25	14	4-7	3-4	3-4	-10	2	3
D. JarreauG · #77	22	4	1-5	0-1	2-2	-10	3	4
C. SpencerG · #24	26	0	0-7	0-4	—	-4	1	4
Team		101	35-86	16-46	15-19		34	20
DNP: B. Clarke, T. Jerome

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	27	13	6-8	—	1-3	+22	4	1
M. DiabateF · #14	33	11	5-6	—	1-2	+21	14	3
B. MillerF · #24	30	22	8-12	5-9	1-2	+20	5	3
L. BallG · #1	29	29	9-19	7-14	4-5	+12	3	4
K. KnueppelG · #7	21	9	3-9	1-6	2-4	+7	3	5
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	19	5	2-3	1-2	—	+4	4	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	15	10	4-5	—	2-2	+2	2	0
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	3	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
C. WhiteG · #3	19	12	4-11	1-4	3-4	+13	8	7
J. GreenG · #10	20	5	1-5	1-3	2-2	+14	4	0
T. MannG · #23	3	0	0-2	0-1	—	-3	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	21	8	3-5	2-4	—	+6	1	2
Team		124	45-85	18-43	16-24		49	25
DNP: X. Tillman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

35-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-85

FG %

16-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-43

15-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA wins series 2-0

Jan 29

CHA112@

MEM97

Mar 21

MEM101@

CHA124today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -18.5

Between 10 and —

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+95010%

CHA-165094%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -18.5↗SpreadBet CHA -18.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

18.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat MEM 124-101. L. Ball paced them with 29 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. CHA outscored the other side 38-28 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 43

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST

GS 28

CHAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST

GS 74

Bench(7)

40 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 29

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	26	21	28	26	101
CHA	30	29	38	27	124

Period scoring

MEM won 0 · CHA won 4

Burton 7

Ball 9

Jackson 7

Miller 8

Small 8

Ball 11

Jackson 6

Green 8

MEM

CHA

Shooting comparison

MEM

CHA

41%

35-86

53%

45-85

35%

16-46

3PT

42%

18-43

79%

15-19

67%

16-24

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 101·CHA 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 101·CHA 124
Q4·5.8
shot clock turnover
MEM 101·CHA 124
Q4·28.7
Josh Green defensive rebound
MEM 101·CHA 124
Q4·30.7
Walter Clayton Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MEM 101·CHA 124
Q4·40.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk (Sion James assists)
·
MEM 101·CHA 124
Q4·49.7
Josh Green offensive rebound
MEM 101·CHA 122
Q4·52.2
Tre Mann misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
MEM 101·CHA 122
Q4·1:12
Javon Small makes running dunk (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)
·
MEM 101·CHA 122
Q4·1:16
Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound
MEM 99·CHA 122
Q4·1:20
Josh Green misses 22-foot three point jumper
MEM 99·CHA 122
Q4·1:39
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyler Burton assists)
·
MEM 99·CHA 122
Q4·1:50
Sion James makes driving layup
MEM 96·CHA 122
Q4·2:06
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes driving layup
MEM 96·CHA 120
Q4·2:13
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·2:15
Tre Mann misses 14-foot fade away jump shot
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·2:38
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·2:42
Javon Small misses driving floating jump shot
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·2:53
Javon Small enters the game for Taylor Hendricks
·
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·2:53
Tre Mann enters the game for Coby White
·
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·2:53
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·2:53
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·2:53
Coby White personal foul
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·3:01
Miles Bridges makes driving layup
MEM 94·CHA 120
Q4·3:17
DeJon Jarreau makes driving layup
MEM 94·CHA 118
Q4·3:25
Coby White makes driving layup
MEM 92·CHA 118
Q4·3:36
Coby White defensive rebound
MEM 92·CHA 116
Q4·3:38
Walter Clayton Jr. misses two point shot
MEM 92·CHA 116
Q4·3:52
Josh Green makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 92·CHA 116
Q4·3:52
Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for GG Jackson
·
MEM 92·CHA 115

Betting line

CHA -18.5·O/U 233.5·MEM +950/CHA -1650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Memphis Grizzlies, 124–101. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -18.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

CHA

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

114.7

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR