MIN
40-26
LAC
33-32
MIN · top performer
Anthony Edwards
G · #5
36
Pts
2
Reb
5
Ast
LAC · top performer
Kawhi Leonard
F · #2
45
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:12
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 11 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 5-6 | -12 | 6 | 4 | |
| 31 | 11 | 5-6 | 1-1 | — | -40 | 2 | 3 | |
| 26 | 9 | 3-4 | — | 3-3 | -38 | 5 | 4 | |
| 25 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | -12 | 4 | 2 | |
| 35 | 36 | 11-17 | 3-8 | 11-12 | -25 | 2 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +6 | 0 | 3 | |
| 18 | 5 | 1-1 | — | 3-4 | -2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 6 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 18 | 8-15 | 1-3 | 1-1 | -11 | 3 | 0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +6 | 3 | 0 | |
| 6 | 11 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 1-1 | +6 | 0 | 1 | |
| 12 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | — | -4 | 1 | 3 | |
| 16 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-4 | — | -5 | 0 | 4 | |
| Team | 128 | 46-77 | 11-25 | 25-29 | 28 | 32 | ||
| DNP: M. Conley | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 45 | 15-20 | 6-9 | 9-10 | +41 | 5 | 5 | |
| 29 | 12 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | +19 | 4 | 1 | |
| 24 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +17 | 3 | 0 | |
| 24 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | — | +17 | 2 | 6 | |
| 23 | 21 | 8-13 | 5-9 | — | +5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 6 | 2-2 | 2-2 | — | +9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 9 | 2-3 | — | 5-6 | +14 | 6 | 3 | |
| 6 | 6 | 3-3 | — | — | -6 | 0 | 1 | |
| 29 | 14 | 6-13 | 0-4 | 2-4 | +10 | 3 | 7 | |
| 25 | 22 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 10-12 | +17 | 2 | 3 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | -6 | 1 | 3 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 153 | 52-82 | 19-37 | 30-36 | 29 | 36 | ||
| DNP: B. Bogdanovic | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
60
FG %
63
32
Ast
36
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
LAC
Home
46-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
52-82
60
FG %
63
11-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
19-37
25-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
30-36
32
Assists
36
21
Turnovers
10
Season series
Series tied 2-2
LAC106@MIN109LAC115@MIN96MIN94@LAC88MIN128@LAC153todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-10551%LAC-11553%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LAC beat MIN 153-128. K. Leonard led the way with 45 points and 5 assists. LAC outscored the other side 44-30 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAC vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 19 REB · 18 AST
GS 55
Bench(8)
55 PTS · 9 REB · 14 AST
GS 45
LACstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
86 PTS · 15 REB · 18 AST
GS 88
Bench(8)
67 PTS · 14 REB · 18 AST
GS 62
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBennedict Mathurin · bad pass turnover (Donte DiVincenzo steals)
Brook Lopez · enters the game for Isaiah Jackson
Kawhi Leonard · makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 38 | 33 | 30 | 128 |
| LAC | 38 | 36 | 35 | 44 | 153 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · LAC won 3
Q1
Edwards 14
Leonard 18
Q2
Reid 9
Leonard 10
Q3
Edwards 9
Garland 13
Q4
Clark 11
Mathurin 10
Shooting comparison
60%
46-77
FG
63%
52-82
44%
11-25
3PT
51%
19-37
86%
25-29
FT
83%
30-36
Play-by-play · 451 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 128·LAC 153
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 128·LAC 153
- Q4·11.2
Julian Phillips makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)
·
MIN 128·LAC 153
- Q4·20.5
Julian Phillips defensive rebound
MIN 125·LAC 153
- Q4·23.1
Sean Pedulla misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 125·LAC 153
- Q4·26.1
Cam Christie offensive rebound
MIN 125·LAC 153
- Q4·28.9
Jordan Miller misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIN 125·LAC 153
- Q4·51.2
Jaylen Clark makes free throw 1 of 1
MIN 125·LAC 153
- Q4·51.2
Norchad Omier shooting foul
MIN 124·LAC 153
- Q4·51.2
Jaylen Clark makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Joe Ingles assists)
·
MIN 124·LAC 153
- Q4·1:06
Sean Pedulla makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cam Christie assists)
·
MIN 122·LAC 153
- Q4·1:08
Cam Christie offensive rebound
MIN 122·LAC 150
- Q4·1:12
Jordan Miller misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 122·LAC 150
- Q4·1:26
Jaylen Clark makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Joe Ingles assists)
·
MIN 122·LAC 150
- Q4·1:46
Cam Christie makes 1-foot dunk (Sean Pedulla assists)
·
MIN 119·LAC 150
- Q4·1:54
Joe Ingles makes driving layup (Jaylen Clark assists)
·
MIN 119·LAC 148
- Q4·2:13
Norchad Omier makes 1-foot running dunk (Jordan Miller assists)
·
MIN 117·LAC 148
- Q4·2:17
Jordan Miller defensive rebound
MIN 117·LAC 146
- Q4·2:19
Julian Phillips misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 117·LAC 146
- Q4·2:33
Kobe Sanders makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Norchad Omier assists)
·
MIN 117·LAC 146
- Q4·2:40
Rocco Zikarsky kicked ball violation
MIN 117·LAC 144
- Q4·2:55
Jaylen Clark makes 5-foot layup (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)
·
MIN 117·LAC 144
- Q4·3:09
Norchad Omier makes 8-foot two point shot (Sean Pedulla assists)
·
MIN 115·LAC 144
- Q4·3:17
Sean Pedulla defensive rebound
MIN 115·LAC 142
- Q4·3:19
Terrence Shannon Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 115·LAC 142
- Q4·3:26
Rocco Zikarsky offensive rebound
MIN 115·LAC 142
- Q4·3:30
Jaylen Clark misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 115·LAC 142
- Q4·3:41
Sean Pedulla makes 31-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)
·
MIN 115·LAC 142
- Q4·3:59
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes driving layup
MIN 115·LAC 139
- Q4·4:04
Rocco Zikarsky defensive rebound
MIN 113·LAC 139
Betting line
LAC -1.5·O/U 226.5·MIN -105/LAC -115
Recap · NBA
A Clippers held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 153–128. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
LAC -1.5 cashed (won by 25). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 54.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+- Kawhi LeonardLAC · FUSG%33.399
- Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Kris DunnLAC · GDEFL3.697
Darius GarlandLAC · GDRIVES13.896
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAC vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Kawhi LeonardLAC25.5± 4.3high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Kawhi LeonardLAC6.5± 1.4high
- John CollinsLAC5.8± 2.5high
Assists
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
- Ayo DosunmuMIN3.9± 3.1high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
Steals
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- Kawhi LeonardLAC1.3± 0.9high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
LAC
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
▶48.5%
116.8
PPG
114.9
113.9
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
23.8
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.6