NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8CHA

CHA

34-33

117109

SAC

16-51

NBAWed, Mar 11FinalSeriesCHA leads series 1-0VegasCHA -14.5

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

33.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 6:58

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	31	26	11-15	3-4	1-1	+14	2	5
M. DiabateF · #14	34	2	1-3	—	—	+15	10	2
B. MillerF · #24	33	20	7-15	2-5	4-4	+12	3	5
L. BallG · #1	31	30	10-22	6-13	4-4	+16	6	5
K. KnueppelG · #7	34	24	7-13	5-8	5-5	+15	7	3
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	14	2	1-3	—	—	-7	6	3
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	8	0	0-2	0-1	—	+1	1	0
C. WhiteG · #3	20	9	3-9	2-4	1-1	-4	2	1
J. GreenG · #10	11	0	0-1	0-1	—	-12	1	1
S. JamesG · #4	24	4	1-7	1-4	1-2	-10	3	4
Team		117	41-90	19-40	16-17		41	29
DNP: T. Evbuomwan, R. Kalkbrenner, T. Mann

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	30	14	6-11	0-1	2-2	-22	8	2
M. RaynaudC · #42	25	4	1-3	—	2-2	-18	6	2
D. DeRozanG · #10	41	39	17-22	0-1	5-5	+3	4	6
K. HayesG · #3	31	11	5-9	1-3	—	-18	2	4
N. CliffordG · #5	41	18	7-16	2-6	2-3	-4	4	8
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	28	6	2-7	2-7	—	+7	1	0
D. EubanksF · #19	15	4	2-4	—	0-2	+9	6	2
D. PlowdenG · #29	30	13	5-11	3-7	—	+3	4	0
Team		109	45-83	8-25	11-14		35	24
DNP: K. Murray, D. Cardwell, D. Carter, P. Baldwin Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

41-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-83

FG %

19-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-25

16-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 1-0

Mar 12

CHA117@

SAC109today

Mar 24

SAC90@

CHA134

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-100091%

SAC+65013%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -14.5↗SpreadBet CHA -14.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat SAC 117-109. L. Ball paced them with 30 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. CHA outscored the other side 31-23 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

102 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST

GS 88

Bench(5)

15 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 10

SACstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 24 REB · 22 AST

GS 76

Bench(3)

23 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC2nd Quarter · 6:55 · 39-47

+12pp→ 42% WP

Daeqwon Plowden · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)

CHA2nd Quarter · 56.9 · 55-60

+14pp→ 68% WP

Drew Eubanks · personal foul

CHA4th Quarter · 6:58 · 104-94

+25pp→ 98% WP

Killian Hayes · enters the game for Daeqwon Plowden

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	30	29	31	27	117
SAC	34	28	23	24	109

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · SAC won 1

Ball 13

DeRozan 8

Ball 9

Plowden 15

Miller 10

DeRozan 9

Knueppel 8

Hayes 43

CHA

SAC

Shooting comparison

CHA

SAC

46%

41-90

54%

45-83

48%

19-40

3PT

32%

8-25

94%

16-17

79%

11-14

Play-by-play · 432 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 117·SAC 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 117·SAC 109
Q4·22.8
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Josh Green
·
CHA 117·SAC 109
Q4·22.8
DeMar DeRozan steps out of bounds turnover
CHA 117·SAC 109
−0.5pp
Q4·23.8
Josh Green enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 117·SAC 109
Q4·23.8
Kings Full timeout
CHA 117·SAC 109
Q4·23.8
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 117·SAC 109
Q4·23.8
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 116·SAC 109
Q4·23.8
Nique Clifford personal take foul
CHA 115·SAC 109
−1pp
Q4·27.6
Nique Clifford makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Killian Hayes assists)
·
CHA 115·SAC 109
+0.6pp
Q4·33.1
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
CHA 115·SAC 107
Q4·34.8
LaMelo Ball misses driving floating jump shot
CHA 115·SAC 107
Q4·48.7
Nique Clifford makes 27-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)
·
CHA 115·SAC 107
Q4·53.6
Kings Full timeout
CHA 115·SAC 104
Q4·53.6
Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 115·SAC 104
Q4·53.6
Sion James enters the game for Kon Knueppel
·
CHA 114·SAC 104
Q4·53.6
Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 114·SAC 104
Q4·53.6
Precious Achiuwa shooting foul
CHA 113·SAC 104
Q4·1:14
Precious Achiuwa makes 11-foot fade away jump shot (Nique Clifford assists)
·
CHA 113·SAC 104
Q4·1:19
Nique Clifford offensive rebound
CHA 113·SAC 102
Q4·1:22
DeMar DeRozan misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 113·SAC 102
Q4·1:36
shot clock turnover
CHA 113·SAC 102
Q4·1:36
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 113·SAC 102
Q4·1:38
LaMelo Ball misses 29-foot three point jumper
CHA 113·SAC 102
Q4·1:58
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
CHA 113·SAC 102
Q4·2:00
Nique Clifford misses 22-foot three point jumper
CHA 113·SAC 102
Q4·2:18
LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 113·SAC 102
−1pp
Q4·2:41
Precious Achiuwa makes layup (Nique Clifford assists)
·
CHA 110·SAC 102
+0.6pp
Q4·3:00
Miles Bridges makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)
·
CHA 110·SAC 100
Q4·3:07
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 108·SAC 100

Betting line

CHA -14.5·O/U 224.5·CHA -1000/SAC +650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 117–109.

SAC +14.5 cashed (CHA won by 8). Total cleared the 224.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

SAC

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR