NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6ORL

CLE

40-26

122128

ORL

36-28

NBAWed, Mar 11FinalSeriesCLE leads series 2-1VegasCLE -3.5

CLE · top performer

James Harden

G · #1

25.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

31.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 11:25

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	20	0	0-2	0-1	—	-10	5	0
E. MobleyC · #4	32	18	8-13	0-2	2-7	-5	13	4
J. HardenG · #1	37	30	11-16	5-9	3-5	-7	5	8
D. MitchellG · #45	36	25	9-24	4-13	3-3	0	5	5
S. MerrillG · #5	30	13	5-8	2-5	1-2	-1	4	2
Bench
T. BryantC · #3	19	12	4-8	1-4	3-3	+1	5	0
D. SchroderG · #8	18	0	0-5	0-1	—	-5	0	2
J. TysonG · #20	18	4	1-4	0-1	2-2	-4	1	2
K. EllisG · #14	31	20	6-9	5-8	3-4	+1	4	1
Team		122	44-89	17-44	17-26		42	24
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, N. Tomlin, R. Minix, C. Porter Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	37	25	8-18	2-6	7-9	+11	8	7
T. da SilvaF · #23	34	23	8-13	3-8	4-5	+5	4	3
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	35	11	4-7	1-3	2-6	+7	11	4
D. BaneG · #3	36	35	12-19	2-3	9-10	+3	6	6
J. SuggsG · #4	32	12	4-9	1-5	3-3	+3	2	4
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	13	1	0-3	—	1-2	-1	5	1
N. PendaF · #93	11	4	2-4	0-2	—	-5	2	1
J. CarterG · #2	20	9	3-7	1-5	2-2	-1	0	2
J. HowardG · #13	22	8	3-5	2-3	—	+8	4	1
Team		128	44-85	12-35	28-37		42	29
DNP: J. Isaac, G. Bitadze, J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

44-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-85

FG %

17-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-35

17-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

28-37

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE leads series 2-1

Jan 25

CLE119@

ORL105

Jan 27

ORL98@

CLE114

Mar 11

CLE122@

ORL128today

Mar 25

ORL131@

CLE136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-15561%

ORL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat CLE 128-122. D. Bane led the way with 35 points and 6 assists.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 32 REB · 19 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

36 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST

GS 27

ORLstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

106 PTS · 31 REB · 24 AST

GS 94

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE4th Quarter · 11:25 · 91-96

+10pp→ 38% WP

Noah Penda · shooting foul

CLE4th Quarter · 11:25 · 91-96

+16pp→ 30% WP

Magic de · lay of game violation

ORL4th Quarter · 18.3 · 120-125

+13pp→ 93% WP

Desmond Bane · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	35	27	27	33	122
ORL	38	24	34	32	128

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · ORL won 2

Mitchell 12

Bane 8

Harden 8

Banchero 13

Bryant 8

Bane 22

Ellis 12

Bane 11

CLE

ORL

Shooting comparison

CLE

ORL

49%

44-89

52%

44-85

39%

17-44

3PT

34%

12-35

65%

17-26

76%

28-37

Play-by-play · 482 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 122·ORL 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 122·ORL 128
Q4·0.0
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 122·ORL 128
Q4·0.0
Keon Ellis misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 122·ORL 128
Q4·1.5
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 122·ORL 128
Q4·3.5
Tristan da Silva misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 122·ORL 128
Q4·3.5
Tristan da Silva makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 122·ORL 128
Q4·3.5
Keon Ellis personal take foul
CLE 122·ORL 127
Q4·3.5
Tristan da Silva defensive rebound
CLE 122·ORL 127
+0.8pp
Q4·6.0
Donovan Mitchell misses 24-foot three point shot
CLE 122·ORL 127
+2pp
Q4·8.0
Keon Ellis enters the game for Thomas Bryant
·
CLE 122·ORL 127
Q4·8.0
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 122·ORL 127
Q4·8.0
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 122·ORL 127
−2pp
Q4·8.0
Thomas Bryant enters the game for Keon Ellis
·
CLE 122·ORL 126
Q4·8.0
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 122·ORL 126
+0.5pp
Q4·8.0
Sam Merrill personal take foul
CLE 122·ORL 125
+5pp
Q4·8.7
Evan Mobley makes tip in dunk
CLE 122·ORL 125
−3pp
Q4·8.7
Evan Mobley offensive rebound
CLE 120·ORL 125
−2pp
Q4·8.7
Donovan Mitchell misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 120·ORL 125
+5pp
Q4·17.4
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 120·ORL 125
Q4·18.3
Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 120·ORL 125
+13pp
Q4·20.2
Magic Full timeout
CLE 120·ORL 122
+4pp
Q4·38.5
Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (James Harden assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 120·ORL 122
−13pp
Q4·42.2
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 117·ORL 122
−0.8pp
Q4·45.7
Desmond Bane misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
CLE 117·ORL 122
−3pp
Q4·1:02
James Harden makes 25-foot three pointer
CLE 117·ORL 122
−5pp
Q4·1:09
Tristan da Silva makes 24-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CLE 114·ORL 122
+6pp
Q4·1:29
Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)
·
CLE 114·ORL 119
−5pp
Q4·1:40
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
·
CLE 111·ORL 119
Q4·1:40
Magic offensive team rebound
CLE 111·ORL 118
−1pp

Betting line

CLE -3.5·O/U 226.5·CLE -155/ORL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 128–122.

ORL +3.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

ORL

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR