NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10PHI

MEM

23-41

129139

PHI

35-30

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasPHI -4.5

MEM · top performer

Ty Jerome

G · #2

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Cameron Payne

PG · #20

39.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 6:06

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	21	11	4-6	1-1	2-3	+8	6	0
T. HendricksF · #22	25	8	3-8	1-5	1-1	+2	5	2
C. CowardF · #23	24	13	4-8	2-3	3-4	+2	16	3
J. WellsF · #0	22	11	4-11	3-9	—	+1	3	0
T. JeromeG · #2	25	26	10-20	4-10	2-2	+8	2	8
Bench
G. JacksonF · #45	25	15	6-12	1-4	2-3	-26	3	2
C. SpencerG · #24	24	12	4-8	2-4	2-2	-18	1	3
J. MashackG · #21	27	7	2-4	0-1	3-5	-18	1	1
J. SmallG · #10	26	12	5-11	1-3	1-1	-11	5	7
R. RupertG · #32	22	14	6-9	2-3	—	+2	2	0
Team		129	48-97	17-43	16-21		44	26
DNP: B. Clarke, W. Clayton Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	34	11	4-7	0-2	3-6	+4	6	1
A. BonaC · #30	16	4	2-3	—	—	-8	3	1
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	38	30	10-24	1-9	9-11	-2	12	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	35	23	6-16	0-4	11-13	+11	3	2
V. EdgecombeG · #77	35	21	7-15	1-5	6-6	-7	5	5
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	15	11	4-5	—	3-4	-4	4	2
J. WalkerF · #33	9	2	1-3	0-1	—	+5	2	0
D. TerryF · #14	22	5	2-3	1-2	—	+23	2	4
J. EdwardsF · #11	6	0	—	—	—	+6	0	1
C. PaynePG · #20	30	32	9-10	8-8	6-6	+22	3	10
Team		139	45-86	11-31	38-46		40	27
DNP: M. Beauchamp, A. Drummond, K. Lowry, T. Martin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

48-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-86

FG %

17-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-31

16-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

38-46

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Dec 31

PHI139@

MEM136

Mar 10

MEM129@

PHI139today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+16038%

PHI-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -4.5↗SpreadBet PHI -4.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat MEM 139-129. C. Payne paced them with 32 PTS, 3 REB, 10 AST. PHI outscored the other side 41-25 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 32 REB · 13 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

60 PTS · 12 REB · 13 AST

GS 36

PHIstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 29 REB · 10 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

50 PTS · 11 REB · 17 AST

GS 58

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI4th Quarter · 6:46 · 115-114

+9pp→ 58% WP

Jaylen Wells · personal foul

PHI4th Quarter · 6:19 · 115-119

+11pp→ 73% WP

Cameron Payne · makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot

MEM4th Quarter · 6:06 · 117-119

+13pp→ 45% WP

Cameron Payne · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	32	39	33	25	129
PHI	32	36	30	41	139

Period scoring

MEM won 2 · PHI won 1

Coward 9

Jr. 13

Rupert 10

Payne 17

Jerome 10

Grimes 9

Jerome 5

Payne 13

MEM

PHI

Shooting comparison

MEM

PHI

49%

48-97

52%

45-86

40%

17-43

3PT

35%

11-31

76%

16-21

83%

38-46

Play-by-play · 529 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 129·PHI 139
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 129·PHI 139
Q4·21.2
Rayan Rupert makes 3-foot pullup jump shot (Cam Spencer assists)
·
MEM 129·PHI 139
Q4·29.0
Trendon Watford makes two point shot (Cameron Payne assists)
·
MEM 127·PHI 139
Q4·33.7
Dalen Terry defensive rebound
MEM 127·PHI 137
Q4·34.5
Rayan Rupert misses tip shot
MEM 127·PHI 137
Q4·34.5
Rayan Rupert offensive rebound
MEM 127·PHI 137
Q4·38.2
Cedric Coward misses running layup
MEM 127·PHI 137
Q4·43.3
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
MEM 127·PHI 137
Q4·46.1
Dalen Terry misses 23-foot three point jumper
MEM 127·PHI 137
Q4·58.1
Rayan Rupert makes two point shot
MEM 127·PHI 137
Q4·58.7
Kelly Oubre Jr. bad pass turnover (Rayan Rupert steals)
·
MEM 125·PHI 137
Q4·1:02
Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound
MEM 125·PHI 137
Q4·1:06
Jahmai Mashack misses layup
MEM 125·PHI 137
Q4·1:18
Cam Spencer enters the game for Ty Jerome
·
MEM 125·PHI 137
Q4·1:18
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 125·PHI 137
Q4·1:18
Trendon Watford enters the game for Dominick Barlow
·
MEM 125·PHI 136
Q4·1:18
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 125·PHI 136
+0.7pp
Q4·1:18
Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 1
MEM 125·PHI 135
Q4·1:18
76ers offensive team rebound
MEM 125·PHI 134
Q4·1:18
Quentin Grimes misses technical free throw
MEM 125·PHI 134
Q4·1:18
Ty Jerome technical foul
MEM 125·PHI 134
Q4·1:18
Ty Jerome technical foul
MEM 125·PHI 134
Q4·1:18
Rayan Rupert shooting foul
MEM 125·PHI 134
+0.6pp
Q4·1:24
Cedric Coward makes tip shot
MEM 125·PHI 134
Q4·1:24
Cedric Coward offensive rebound
MEM 123·PHI 134
Q4·1:26
Ty Jerome misses driving floating jump shot
MEM 123·PHI 134
Q4·1:38
Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 123·PHI 134
Q4·1:38
Cedric Coward enters the game for GG Jackson
·
MEM 123·PHI 133
Q4·1:38
76ers offensive team rebound
MEM 123·PHI 133

Betting line

PHI -4.5·O/U 229.5·MEM +160/PHI -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Memphis Grizzlies, 139–129.

PHI -4.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 38.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI · G
DEFL3.194
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Jahmai MashackMEM · G
DEFL393
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Santi AldamaMEM
6.7± 2.1high

Assists

Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

PHI

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.9%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

46.0%

114.7

PPG

114.9

114.3

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR