NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LAC

LAC

31-32

123120

MEM

23-39

NBASat, Mar 7FinalSeriesMEM wins series 3-1VegasLAC -7.5

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

25.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Taylor Hendricks

F · #22

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 5.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	28	28	8-15	0-3	12-14	+12	5	2
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	30	16	7-8	—	2-2	+15	4	1
B. LopezC · #11	12	4	2-4	0-1	0-1	-1	1	0
K. DunnG · #8	22	0	0-2	0-1	—	+8	3	3
D. GarlandG · #10	26	21	8-20	3-8	2-3	+10	4	6
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	5	0	—	—	—	-13	0	0
I. JacksonF · #23	25	12	6-10	—	0-2	-11	12	0
J. MillerG · #22	33	14	2-5	—	10-12	0	1	2
B. MathurinG · #9	35	21	6-15	0-3	9-9	-2	10	1
T. Washington Jr.G · #15	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
K. SandersG · #4	19	7	2-2	1-1	2-2	0	2	0
C. ChristieG · #12	2	0	0-1	—	—	-1	2	0
Team		123	41-82	4-17	37-45		44	15
DNP: N. Omier, B. Bogdanovic, S. Pedulla

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	22	11	4-5	3-4	—	-7	2	2
G. JacksonF · #45	22	14	6-12	1-4	1-2	-7	7	1
J. WellsF · #0	26	8	2-8	2-8	2-2	-7	1	1
T. JeromeG · #2	25	23	7-17	2-5	7-8	-6	2	7
S. Pippen Jr.G · #1	23	11	4-7	1-3	2-3	+2	3	3
Bench
T. HendricksF · #22	26	18	7-8	3-3	1-1	+5	4	2
C. CowardF · #23	22	15	5-13	2-8	3-4	+4	7	0
C. SpencerG · #24	16	12	4-6	2-4	2-2	+7	3	4
J. MashackG · #21	25	4	2-5	0-2	—	+1	1	0
J. SmallG · #10	15	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-14	2	3
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	18	2	1-5	0-1	—	+7	2	6
Team		120	42-87	16-43	20-24		34	29
DNP: B. Clarke

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

41-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-87

FG %

4-17

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-43

37-45

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM wins series 3-1

Nov 29

MEM112@

LAC107

Dec 6

LAC98@

MEM107

Dec 16

MEM121@

LAC103

Mar 8

LAC123@

MEM120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC-30575%

MEM+24529%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -7.5↗SpreadBet LAC -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat MEM 123-120. K. Leonard paced them with 28 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. MEM outscored the other side 41-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST

GS 55

Bench(7)

54 PTS · 27 REB · 3 AST

GS 43

MEMstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST

GS 50

Bench(6)

53 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 45

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC4th Quarter · 3:19 · 117-114

+14pp→ 72% WP

Darius Garland · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot

LAC4th Quarter · 44.6 · 119-118

+15pp→ 82% WP

Ty Jerome · shooting foul

LAC4th Quarter · 5.2 · 121-120

+19pp→ 85% WP

Bennedict Mathurin · offensive rebound

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	23	35	31	34	123
MEM	41	18	31	30	120

Period scoring

LAC won 2 · MEM won 1

Mathurin 6

Prosper 9

Leonard 15

Jerome 5

Jackson 6

Jackson 7

Garland 11

Jerome 10

LAC

MEM

Shooting comparison

LAC

MEM

50%

41-82

48%

42-87

24%

4-17

3PT

37%

16-43

82%

37-45

83%

20-24

Play-by-play · 511 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 123·MEM 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 123·MEM 120
−4pp
Q4·2.3
Cam Spencer offensive rebound
LAC 123·MEM 120
+2pp
Q4·2.3
Ty Jerome misses 24-foot fade away jump shot
LAC 123·MEM 120
−5pp
Q4·4.4
Cam Spencer enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper
·
LAC 123·MEM 120
Q4·4.4
Ty Jerome enters the game for Jahmai Mashack
·
LAC 123·MEM 120
Q4·4.4
Grizzlies Full timeout
LAC 123·MEM 120
Q4·4.4
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 123·MEM 120
+3pp
Q4·4.4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Ty Jerome
·
LAC 122·MEM 120
Q4·4.4
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 122·MEM 120
−1pp
Q4·4.4
Javon Small personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 121·MEM 120
−9pp
Q4·5.2
Bennedict Mathurin offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 121·MEM 120
−19pp
Q4·8.1
Kawhi Leonard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAC 121·MEM 120
+2pp
Q4·30.2
Ty Jerome makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
LAC 121·MEM 120
+8pp
Q4·44.6
Jordan Miller makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 121·MEM 118
+7pp
Q4·44.6
Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 120·MEM 118
−2pp
Q4·44.6
Ty Jerome shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 119·MEM 118
−15pp
Q4·1:05
Clippers defensive team rebound
LAC 119·MEM 118
Q4·1:05
Isaiah Jackson vs. Ty Jerome (Bennedict Mathurin gains possession)
· ·
LAC 119·MEM 118
−3pp
Q4·1:08
Isaiah Jackson blocks Ty Jerome 's 1-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
LAC 119·MEM 118
−8pp
Q4·1:30
Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 119·MEM 118
+8pp
Q4·1:30
Ty Jerome enters the game for Walter Clayton Jr.
·
LAC 118·MEM 118
Q4·1:30
Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 118·MEM 118
−2pp
Q4·1:30
Cedric Coward shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 117·MEM 118
−14pp
Q4·1:33
Cedric Coward lost ball turnover (Kawhi Leonard steals)
·
LAC 117·MEM 118
Q4·1:43
(01:43) [Clippers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Clippers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
LAC 117·MEM 118
−10pp
Q4·1:43
Clippers Full timeout
LAC 117·MEM 118
Q4·1:43
Grizzlies offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 117·MEM 118
+8pp
Q4·1:43
Taylor Hendricks misses tip in dunkBIG MOMENT
LAC 117·MEM 118
−8pp
Q4·1:43
Taylor Hendricks offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 117·MEM 118
+8pp

Betting line

LAC -7.5·O/U 229.5·LAC -305/MEM +245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 123–120. Decided by 3.

MEM +7.5 cashed (LAC won by 3). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Kawhi LeonardLAC · F
USG%33.399
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Darius GarlandLAC · G
DRIVES13.896
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Santi AldamaMEM
6.7± 2.1high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

MEM

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

113.9

PPG

114.9

114.7

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR